Best Case Scenario
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Best Case Scenario
by handdownmandown » Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:59 am
So I was messing around on RPIForecast and I decided to try to estimate what the best case scenario for the league would be heading into NYE. I went to each team's page on the RPIWizard (where you can re-evaluate projected RPIs when entering in the outcome of games not played yet) and played out the league's non-conference schedule. I gave each team with a >30% shot at winning a W, re-processed the projection to see what the projected RPI was, then matched the projection to where it would fall in the rankings.
Even with the decision to award a win to anyone who was above a 30 percent projection, there was only one game that was a sub-50% winner that I awarded a league win for: Hall at Georgia, which is something like 36% on the site but I think in reality is closer to a tossup anyway. So most of what I entered were wins that we'd at least be a slight favorite for anyway. Two teams took losses: Providence against Miami, and St. John's vs. Duke, which were both sub-30% chances.
Factoring in DePaul was harder; with their Diamond Head games, I couldn't decide if it would be more beneficial for them to beat Colorado (which was a 36% game), because they'd be projected to lose the next two, or to lose that game and then beat the two teams in the bottom half of the bracket. I chose the latter, mainly because doing so would help the league more.
Finally, the Big 12 is projected at 103-21, with a weaker SOS. We'd probable eke past them for #1 if we pulled it off.
Here's what I came up with - new projected RPI first:
11 Nova
13 Butler
15 Xavier
19 Hall
29 St. John's
30 Georgetown
70 Creighton
84 Providence
91 Marquette
122 DePaul
That's six top 8 quality seeds for the Tourney, plus three more teams who aren't out of it with the right combination of results. Could be seven. YES STEVER, could be.
Now a few addendums: our projected conference record is 101-22. That's a six game improvement leaguewide (with two extra W's from Depaul's undefined Hawaii appearance as well that aren't reflected) from the estimation provided by the site. Having such a record would only wind up improving these numbers even more, but there's no way that I know of to calculate the level of combined improvement. It'll be a real help to everyone's RPI and SOS though, above and beyond these numbers.
Also, the conference tournament isn't factored in. The 4-5 and the 3-6 winner in such a scenario would receive a nice boost without penalizing the loser, while the 1-8 and 2-7 winners would either receive a small bonus (if it's the higher seed) or a huge one (if it's a smaller seed). That's not reflected in the rankings either.
St. John's and Providence have additional upside due to the negative projection of their games vs. Duke and Miami, both winnable, though tough. For the the record, the Johnnies would move up to 22 and Providence would move to 75.
One other reason to think we could head towards seven: the projections, being 'averages', tend to homogenize the performances of the very top and very bottom, moving them closer to the mean. The bottom three teams are projected to win 18 conference games as of now. That's 12 victories vs. the teams that will populate the top 7, and six versus each other. To me that sounds like the absolute ceiling for those teams: assuming one is DePaul, who I don't think could win more than 2 versus what will be the league's top 7, that leaves whoever the 8 and 9 teams wind up being 5-9 against the top 7. That's really optimistic. Possible but optimistic. The point being, if the bottom can donate a few more wins to the top 7, the numbers will jump for a few of those teams even more who wind up with the extra win over the projected total - an extra win is worth roughly 10 RPI spots if you're on the bubble, 6-8 if you're a middling seed, and even almost a whole seed line for a top 20 team.
I just found it interesting. Let's close out strong over Christmas and really produce a pounding.
Even with the decision to award a win to anyone who was above a 30 percent projection, there was only one game that was a sub-50% winner that I awarded a league win for: Hall at Georgia, which is something like 36% on the site but I think in reality is closer to a tossup anyway. So most of what I entered were wins that we'd at least be a slight favorite for anyway. Two teams took losses: Providence against Miami, and St. John's vs. Duke, which were both sub-30% chances.
Factoring in DePaul was harder; with their Diamond Head games, I couldn't decide if it would be more beneficial for them to beat Colorado (which was a 36% game), because they'd be projected to lose the next two, or to lose that game and then beat the two teams in the bottom half of the bracket. I chose the latter, mainly because doing so would help the league more.
Finally, the Big 12 is projected at 103-21, with a weaker SOS. We'd probable eke past them for #1 if we pulled it off.
Here's what I came up with - new projected RPI first:
11 Nova
13 Butler
15 Xavier
19 Hall
29 St. John's
30 Georgetown
70 Creighton
84 Providence
91 Marquette
122 DePaul
That's six top 8 quality seeds for the Tourney, plus three more teams who aren't out of it with the right combination of results. Could be seven. YES STEVER, could be.
Now a few addendums: our projected conference record is 101-22. That's a six game improvement leaguewide (with two extra W's from Depaul's undefined Hawaii appearance as well that aren't reflected) from the estimation provided by the site. Having such a record would only wind up improving these numbers even more, but there's no way that I know of to calculate the level of combined improvement. It'll be a real help to everyone's RPI and SOS though, above and beyond these numbers.
Also, the conference tournament isn't factored in. The 4-5 and the 3-6 winner in such a scenario would receive a nice boost without penalizing the loser, while the 1-8 and 2-7 winners would either receive a small bonus (if it's the higher seed) or a huge one (if it's a smaller seed). That's not reflected in the rankings either.
St. John's and Providence have additional upside due to the negative projection of their games vs. Duke and Miami, both winnable, though tough. For the the record, the Johnnies would move up to 22 and Providence would move to 75.
One other reason to think we could head towards seven: the projections, being 'averages', tend to homogenize the performances of the very top and very bottom, moving them closer to the mean. The bottom three teams are projected to win 18 conference games as of now. That's 12 victories vs. the teams that will populate the top 7, and six versus each other. To me that sounds like the absolute ceiling for those teams: assuming one is DePaul, who I don't think could win more than 2 versus what will be the league's top 7, that leaves whoever the 8 and 9 teams wind up being 5-9 against the top 7. That's really optimistic. Possible but optimistic. The point being, if the bottom can donate a few more wins to the top 7, the numbers will jump for a few of those teams even more who wind up with the extra win over the projected total - an extra win is worth roughly 10 RPI spots if you're on the bubble, 6-8 if you're a middling seed, and even almost a whole seed line for a top 20 team.
I just found it interesting. Let's close out strong over Christmas and really produce a pounding.
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by BEwannabe » Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:48 pm
you're talking about 7 teams in NCAA field?
Not a chance.
As well as the Big East has done to this point, 4 are expected to have RPI 41 and lower (clearly in) everyone else is over 50 (NIT). Best case scenario would be 5 (surpise winner @ MSG) and then 1 of the 4 (clearly in) would probably have moved to bubble material.
Not a chance.
As well as the Big East has done to this point, 4 are expected to have RPI 41 and lower (clearly in) everyone else is over 50 (NIT). Best case scenario would be 5 (surpise winner @ MSG) and then 1 of the 4 (clearly in) would probably have moved to bubble material.
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by handdownmandown » Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:05 pm
First of all, the thread is entitled 'Best Case Scenario', which presumes a strong finish, not the projected one.
Second, the projected RPI of the top 6, should we do this well, has six teams in the top 30. The numbers are right there, calculated by the same site. Six.
Third, if you read the post, the reasons to expect better are also fleshed out.
FWIW, Lunardi did an updated projection on Monday, with 7 currently in and Creighton in the next 4 out. Providence was in before the Brown game, so even removing them would replicate my assessment.
Or I could accept the word of a DU fan who has proven through his posts here to be programmed to see the absolute worst angle and run with it.
Nah, I'll stick with Lunardi.
Second, the projected RPI of the top 6, should we do this well, has six teams in the top 30. The numbers are right there, calculated by the same site. Six.
Third, if you read the post, the reasons to expect better are also fleshed out.
FWIW, Lunardi did an updated projection on Monday, with 7 currently in and Creighton in the next 4 out. Providence was in before the Brown game, so even removing them would replicate my assessment.
Or I could accept the word of a DU fan who has proven through his posts here to be programmed to see the absolute worst angle and run with it.
Nah, I'll stick with Lunardi.
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by Jet915 » Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:51 pm
I think 6 is best case, 4 is worst case. The botoom teams IMO, Creighton, Marquette and Depaul will win their share of Big East games.
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by Edrick » Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
The best case this year, and just about any year, is 7. Lunardi has 7 in right now.
I tend to think Creighton isn't very good so I don't buy it, but if the conference finishes top 2 in RPI, it'll at least get 5 and Id imagine 6.
I tend to think Creighton isn't very good so I don't buy it, but if the conference finishes top 2 in RPI, it'll at least get 5 and Id imagine 6.
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by gtmoBlue » Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:00 pm
Re: Best Case Scenario
by Edrick » Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
The best case this year, and just about any year, is 7. Lunardi has 7 in right now.
I tend to think Creighton isn't very good so I don't buy it, but if the conference finishes top 2 in RPI, it'll at least get 5 and Id imagine 6.
I love this conference - absolutely love it! 4-6 potential NCAA bids each year, luv it! No matter the number of bids, Creighton will have 1 of those bids.
Edrick, old pal... You don't know Creighton. None of you have a clue as to the amount of damage the C7 has done to your self esteem.
For 17 years I have heard that constant refrain: Creighton is not very good. Creighton has very little/no talent. Yet for 17 years now - we continue winning. I am going to really enjoy watching all of you other BE fans become Creighton haters, as my Jays confound the odds and whip your elitist asses. "Not very good", "no talent" - we just win. And we're just warming up. Luv ya...
gtmoBlue
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." - Nicholas Klein (1918)
"Top tier teams rarely have true "down" years and find a way to stay relevant every year." - Adoraz
Creighton
"Top tier teams rarely have true "down" years and find a way to stay relevant every year." - Adoraz
Creighton
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gtmoBlue - Posts: 2767
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by XU85 » Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:24 pm
gtmoBlue wrote:Re: Best Case Scenario
by Edrick » Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
The best case this year, and just about any year, is 7. Lunardi has 7 in right now.
I tend to think Creighton isn't very good so I don't buy it, but if the conference finishes top 2 in RPI, it'll at least get 5 and Id imagine 6.
I love this conference - absolutely love it! 4-6 potential NCAA bids each year, luv it! No matter the number of bids, Creighton will have 1 of those bids.
Edrick, old pal... You don't know Creighton. None of you have a clue as to the amount of damage the C7 has done to your self esteem.
For 17 years I have heard that constant refrain: Creighton is not very good. Creighton has very little/no talent. Yet for 17 years now - we continue winning. I am going to really enjoy watching all of you other BE fans become Creighton haters, as my Jays confound the odds and whip your elitist asses. "Not very good", "no talent" - we just win. And we're just warming up. Luv ya...
gtmoBlue
Just a guess. Whiskey?
Xavier, 85 & 87
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by mel ott » Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:42 pm
XU85 wrote:gtmoBlue wrote:Re: Best Case Scenario
by Edrick » Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
The best case this year, and just about any year, is 7. Lunardi has 7 in right now.
I tend to think Creighton isn't very good so I don't buy it, but if the conference finishes top 2 in RPI, it'll at least get 5 and Id imagine 6.
I love this conference - absolutely love it! 4-6 potential NCAA bids each year, luv it! No matter the number of bids, Creighton will have 1 of those bids.
Edrick, old pal... You don't know Creighton. None of you have a clue as to the amount of damage the C7 has done to your self esteem.
For 17 years I have heard that constant refrain: Creighton is not very good. Creighton has very little/no talent. Yet for 17 years now - we continue winning. I am going to really enjoy watching all of you other BE fans become Creighton haters, as my Jays confound the odds and whip your elitist asses. "Not very good", "no talent" - we just win. And we're just warming up. Luv ya...
gtmoBlue
Just a guess. Whiskey?
That's pretty funny. No, that is just typical gitmo. He's a glass is overflowing type of guy. #go big east
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by BEwannabe » Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:52 pm
gtmoBlue wrote:Re: Best Case Scenario
by Edrick » Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
The best case this year, and just about any year, is 7. Lunardi has 7 in right now.
I tend to think Creighton isn't very good so I don't buy it, but if the conference finishes top 2 in RPI, it'll at least get 5 and Id imagine 6.
I love this conference - absolutely love it! 4-6 potential NCAA bids each year, luv it! No matter the number of bids, Creighton will have 1 of those bids.
Edrick, old pal... You don't know Creighton. None of you have a clue as to the amount of damage the C7 has done to your self esteem.
For 17 years I have heard that constant refrain: Creighton is not very good. Creighton has very little/no talent. Yet for 17 years now - we continue winning. I am going to really enjoy watching all of you other BE fans become Creighton haters, as my Jays confound the odds and whip your elitist asses. "Not very good", "no talent" - we just win. And we're just warming up. Luv ya...
gtmoBlue
Creighton has enjoyed a home court advantage ( extreme homers) like no other, it's going to be a little tougher homering G town and Nova...
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Re: Best Case Scenario
by DudeAnon » Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:18 pm
BEwannabe wrote:Creighton has enjoyed a home court advantage ( extreme homers) like no other, it's going to be a little tougher homering G town and Nova...
What team are you a fan of exactly?
Xavier
2018 Big East Champs
2018 Big East Champs
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