Tues Dec 9th, 4 Games...

[stever20]

NJIT beating Michigan was far worse than Incarnate Word taking down Nebraska. Incarnate Word is about average at this point for a D1 team. Heck, if Creighton loses to South Dakota, that's a worse loss than Incarnate Word.

I agree that NJIT beating Michigan is worse than Word beating Nebraska, but to call Word "average" is ridiculous. They aren't at NJIT level but are, beyond any serious dispute, in the bottom 10% of D1, and that might be generous. They were D2 two years ago (still schedule mainly other D2 teams in the non-con) and not even in the NCAA at all 20 years ago. Also disagree that South Dakota would have been a worse loss. That would have been a putrid loss, no argument there, but South Dakota is at least in a somewhat respectable conference, has been D1 for at least long enough to be NCAA-eligible, and actually has participated in the post-season before (2010).

In Ken-Pom- Incarnate Word was 199 before the game last night- now 171.
NJIT was 293 before beating Michigan- now 267
South Dakota was 256 before the game vs Creighton- now 228

so yes, South Dakota would have been a worse loss.

[bluejayfanatic]

In Ken-Pom- Incarnate Word was 199 before the game last night- now 171.
NJIT was 293 before beating Michigan- now 267
South Dakota was 256 before the game vs Creighton- now 228

so yes, South Dakota would have been a worse loss.

Uh, no. Word has a better RPI because a majority of teams they have played are D2 and therefore do not count in their current or projected RPI. When the losses start to pile up against D1 competition in the Confederate Conference their RPI will drop like a rock. I don't expect USD's RPI to get too much better but they will finish the year better than Word. Bank on it.

[stever20]

In Ken-Pom- Incarnate Word was 199 before the game last night- now 171.
NJIT was 293 before beating Michigan- now 267
South Dakota was 256 before the game vs Creighton- now 228

so yes, South Dakota would have been a worse loss.

No, you are wrong as always. Word has a better RPI because a majority of teams they have played are D2 and therefore do not count in their current or projected RPI. When the losses start to pile up against D1 competition in the Confederate Conference their RPI will drop like a rock. I don't expect USD's RPI to get too much better but they will finish the year better than Word. Bank on it. Meanwhile go back to the AAC board and get in arguments over whether you all should add Southeast Oklahoma State to your conference.

I was using Ken Pom ratings- which take the D2 games into account.

I would say this as well- they've played 3 D1 games so far...
beat Princeton by 11
Lost to UTEP by only 16
beat Nebraska by 1
all 3 of those games away.

Also last year in a partial schedule in the Southland conference, Incarnate Word went 9-5. So it's not like they're expected to go 6-12 in the conference or something like that. Ken Pom has them going 13-5 in conference play- and 18-6 in D1 play. Just using RPI forecast, that's an expected RPI with that record of 139.2. Meanwhile, South Dakota is expected to go 8-8 in conference and 12-17 vs D1 schools. That's an expected RPI of 253.4. So you are the one that is wrong- by an even bigger margin than I was initially saying. For South Dakota to finish with a 139.2 RPI, they would have to go 18-11(right now they are 2-7 vs D1).. So the data just doesn't match what you are saying at all.

[bluejayfanatic]

I was using Ken Pom ratings- which take the D2 games into account.

Well, that is even more ridiculous than just counting D1 games. How is it possible to "rate" non-D1 wins? I actually think the fact that Pom "factors in" D2 schools is inflating Word's rating, as I explain below.

I would say this as well- they've played 3 D1 games so far...

Yes, they have played three D1 games and four D2 (or lower) games. In other words, they have played a MAJORITY of their games against non-D1 competition. How do you think that's affected their KenPom stats (adjusted offense, adjusted defense, tempo, etc.)? It has inflated them beyond recognition. Typically D1 teams play no more than one or two non-D1 games, and never a "majority" by this point in the season. I'm not buying Word's numbers. Sorry, Ken.

Also last year in a partial schedule in the Southland conference, Incarnate Word went 9-5.

So let me get this straight. The Southland is such a God-awful conference that a non-postseason-eligible team in its FIRST YEAR of D1 play had a winning record against a partial conference slate? Ouch. That conference is worse than I thought (and I didn't have a good opinion of it to begin with).

Right now, Word and South Dakota are separated by 58 spots in KenPom. Last year, despite winning 20 games, Word finished with a 247 RPI. (Embarrassing note: a majority of those 20 wins were against non-D1 competition, including two, count them two, wins against "Open Bible College"). Meanwhile, South Dakota finished with an almost identical 261 RPI despite winning only 12 games.

So, Incarnate Word has received the stat-sheet benefit of playing a majority of its games against non-D1 competition (and really taking it to Open Bible College) and playing in a conference so awful that a 247 RPI landed it near the top of the conference standings. I like KenPom, but his projection just doesn't smell right this year. Come back in March and find out where both of these teams are.

[handdownmandown]

Stever's job here is to use statistics to find a way to argue against whatever the conventional wisdom says. He is the Holyland's resident patriot, fighting the tyranny of the majority.

[stever20]

Part of Incarnate Word's record quite frankly is the gerrymandered schedule-
Abeline Christian 2x #339
Nicholls St 2x #325
Lamar 2x #326
Houston Baptist 2x #330
New Orleans #318
Central Arkansas #347
so 10 games against the current bottom 40 schools in the country. Also then 2x vs #292 Texas A&M Corpus Christi. They're projected to have the #325 SOS in the country which is putrid. But because they'll have so many wins- that'll counter-balance that. Meanwhile, South Dakota's schedule isn't all that much stronger overall- #269- but because they'll be 13-16- that'll hurt them.