RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[GumbyDamnit!]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?

You say that Nova will be favored in all remaining OOC games. It's not as simple as that. A team can be favored by 1 point or by 21 points. The 21 point game is a virtual lock while the 1 point game is basically a toss up even though one team is technically favored.

With Illinois and Syracuse remaining on the schedule, that's two toss ups regardless of who is favored. Villanova could go 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 in these2 games. RPI Forecast is saying that given that both games are about a 50% chance do winning! Villanova will probably lose one of them, finishing the OOC schedule at 12-1.

The same approach is applied to the conference schedule, resulting in some projected losses in games in which Villanova (or any team) is projected as a slight favorite. A team that wins all the close games can really beat the odds, but that's not the way it usually happens. Will Villanova go 11-7 in The Big East? No one knows. I expected Villanova to run away with the league but I also expected Butler to finish 8th and Creighton 9th. So much for my predictions. So many BE teams have looked good early and have had surprising big wins that statistically the conference looks to be very close right now with a lot of evenly matched games. Hence, Villanova projects to 11-7, base don't here early season results. Things may and probably will change.

"Things may and probably will change" sums up what I am trying to say. Bill I obviously would never suggest that since a team is favored that they will naturally win. But if I had to place a bet on every single game left on Nova's schedule OOC, I'd bet them each time and so too would any Vegas odds makers. I think you are making my point Bill. If it's a all a statistical crapshoot AT THIS POINT how is that any better of a measure of how a team is going to end up then all of us just putting our own projections out there? I don't think the Sagarin or RPI or any other "trusted" statistical source can more accurately predict, AT THIS POINT, what we all see with our eyes today. I feel very strongly, by what I've seen AT THIS POINT, that in the 18 conference games + 2 OOC games vs. Illinois and Cuse that Nova will do better than 12-8. I base that on the fact that they brought back 7 of their top 8 players from a team that went 16-2 in the league and the team that beat them twice graduated 3 really good players including a 3x AA and NPOY. Yes, some teams--Butler, SHU--seem to be improved but it'll prove itself out after a couple weeks of conf games. So why even give it merit at this point if "things may and probably will change?"

[Bill Marsh]

You say that Nova will be favored in all remaining OOC games. It's not as simple as that. A team can be favored by 1 point or by 21 points. The 21 point game is a virtual lock while the 1 point game is basically a toss up even though one team is technically favored.

With Illinois and Syracuse remaining on the schedule, that's two toss ups regardless of who is favored. Villanova could go 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 in these2 games. RPI Forecast is saying that given that both games are about a 50% chance do winning! Villanova will probably lose one of them, finishing the OOC schedule at 12-1.

The same approach is applied to the conference schedule, resulting in some projected losses in games in which Villanova (or any team) is projected as a slight favorite. A team that wins all the close games can really beat the odds, but that's not the way it usually happens. Will Villanova go 11-7 in The Big East? No one knows. I expected Villanova to run away with the league but I also expected Butler to finish 8th and Creighton 9th. So much for my predictions. So many BE teams have looked good early and have had surprising big wins that statistically the conference looks to be very close right now with a lot of evenly matched games. Hence, Villanova projects to 11-7, base don't here early season results. Things may and probably will change.

"Things may and probably will change" sums up what I am trying to say. Bill I obviously would never suggest that since a team is favored that they will naturally win. But if I had to place a bet on every single game left on Nova's schedule OOC, I'd bet them each time and so too would any Vegas odds makers. I think you are making my point Bill. If it's a all a statistical crapshoot AT THIS POINT how is that any better of a measure of how a team is going to end up then all of us just putting our own projections out there? I don't think the Sagarin or RPI or any other "trusted" statistical source can more accurately predict, AT THIS POINT, what we all see with our eyes today. I feel very strongly, by what I've seen AT THIS POINT, that in the 18 conference games + 2 OOC games vs. Illinois and Cuse that Nova will do better than 12-8. I base that on the fact that they brought back 7 of their top 8 players from a team that went 16-2 in the league and the team that beat them twice graduated 3 really good players including a 3x AA and NPOY. Yes, some teams--Butler, SHU--seem to be improved but it'll prove itself out after a couple weeks of conf games. So why even give it merit at this point if "things may and probably will change?"

You're getting hung up on projected records. that's not the value of the system. ignore them. it's value is in its measure of season performance to date in comparison with everyone else as seen through the lens of RPI. in that respect it's far superior to using current RPI which gives results like Green Bay being ranked #1.

[stever20]

1 thing that is pretty interesting is look at RPI forecast after last night
Villanova 13-5 25-6 14.2 would be 1 more OOC loss
Butler 12-6 23-8 23.0 would be 2 more OOC loss
Xavier 11-7 21-10 25.9 would be 1 more OOC loss
Providence 10-8 20-11 38.6 would be 2 more OOC loss
Georgetwon 10-8 18-11 36.5 would be 1 more OOC loss
Seton Hall 9-9 19-11 46.9 would be 2 more OOC loss
St John's 8-10 16-14 83.5 would be 3 more OOC loss
Creighton 8-10 17-14 90.5 would be 2 more OOC loss
Marquette 6-12 13-17 128.0 would be 2 more OOC loss
DePaul 4-14 11-18 188.7 would be 3 more OOC loss

starting to spread out a smidge more. Nova up to 25-6 now which is pretty realistic I think. 19 more OOC losses if you look at each individual team(18 if you look at the expected record conference wide). What's amazing is the number is actually really close to what we did last year.

this projection would be great for us getting a 5th. Seton Hall would be in a must win in the QF.

[Bill Marsh]

The ACC had some recovery last night with a few big wins in their Big 10 challenge. Freight on missed an opportunity. As a result, the ACC slipped past the Big East in RPI Forecast. Here's the update:


CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. Big 10
3. ACC
4. Big East
5. PAC 12
6. SEC
7. West Coast
8. A10
9. AAC
10. West Coast

BIG EAST

12. Villanova
19. Butler
26. Xavier
33. Providence
35. Georgetown
45. Seton Hall
82. St. John's
86. Creighton
118. Marquette
168. DePaul

Villanova got a nice bump from their win over LaSalle last night.

[robinreed]

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 3 Conf. SOS Rank: 7

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Teams that made the tournament are in bold
This page updates daily.
Last updated - Thu Dec 4 13:28:16 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Down 19 From Last WeekDown 19 From Last Week 24 Seton Hall 0-0 5-0 0.6535 112 0.5380
Up 42 From Last WeekUp 42 From Last Week 27 Villanova 0-0 7-0 0.6512 119 0.5350
Up 1 From Last Week 34 Butler 0-0 6-1 0.6409 62 0.5718
Down 11 From Last WeekDown 11 From Last Week 37 Providence 0-0 6-1 0.6356 84 0.5541
Down 19 From Last WeekDown 19 From Last Week 74 St. John's 0-0 4-1 0.5903 148 0.5203
Down 6 From Last Week 96 Georgetown 0-0 4-1 0.5620 133 0.5271
Up 13 From Last WeekUp 13 From Last Week 103 Xavier 0-0 5-2 0.5553 127 0.5306
Down 19 From Last WeekDown 19 From Last Week 115 Marquette 0-0 4-3 0.5463 54 0.5778
Up 80 From Last WeekUp 80 From Last Week 143 DePaul 0-0 4-1 0.5241 195 0.4883
Down 28 From Last WeekDown 28 From Last Week 156 Creighton 0-0 6-2 0.5124 270 0.4451

[robinreed]

NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET-TOLOGY

Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
1 1 Kentucky (7-0) 29-2 100% 79% 87%
1 2 Duke (8-0) 29-2 100% 49% 71%
1 3 Louisville (6-0) 27-4 100% 24% 37%
1 4 Wisconsin (7-1) 27-4 100% 37% 26%
2 5 Gonzaga (7-0) 29-2 100% 70% 23%
2 6 Texas (7-0) 25-6 98% 28% 21%
2 7 Arizona (7-0) 26-5 98% 36% 17%
2 8 Villanova (7-0) 26-5 97% 38% 17% BE
3 9 Wichita St (4-1) 25-3 98% 58% 13%
3 10 Ohio State (5-1) 25-6 96% 22% 17%
3 11 San Diego St (5-1) 26-5 96% 52% 5%
3 12 Arkansas (6-0) 25-6 90% 9% 8%
4 13 Virginia (8-0) 24-6 96% 8% 6%
4 14 Kansas (5-1) 23-8 96% 20% 8%
4 15 Utah (6-1) 24-6 96% 29% 4%
4 16 Illinois (6-1) 24-8 89% 12% 6%
5 17 N Carolina (5-2) 23-8 97% 12% 4%
5 18 W Virginia (7-0) 23-8 88% 12% 4%
5 19 Miami (FL) (8-0) 23-8 88% 2% 2%
5 20 Butler (6-1) 23-8 86% 20% 3% BE
6 21 VCU (5-2) 24-7 88% 34% 1%
6 22 Iowa State (4-1) 20-10 76% 13% 5%
6 23 Oklahoma (4-2) 19-11 79% 10% 2%
6 24 S Methodist (4-3) 22-8 80% 27% 1%
7 25 BYU (6-2) 24-7 80% 19% 0%
7 26 Michigan St (5-3) 22-9 79% 9% 2%
7 27 Baylor (6-1) 21-10 73% 8% 1%
7 28 Iowa (6-2) 21-10 75% 7% 1%
8 29 Xavier (5-2) 21-10 71% 14% 1% BE
8 30 Connecticut (3-2) 20-10 74% 40% 0%
8 31 N Iowa (7-0) 24-6 72% 21% 0%
8 32 Maryland (7-1) 22-9 66% 4% 1%
9 33 Syracuse (5-2) 20-11 67% 2% 1%
9 34 Colorado St (7-0) 24-7 61% 16% 0%
9 35 Florida (3-3) 20-11 59% 5% 0%
9 36 Stanford (4-2) 19-11 55% 8% 1%
10 37 Evansville (5-1) 24-6 51% 15% 0%
10 38 Purdue (6-1) 21-10 54% 3% 0%
10 39 Old Dominion (6-1) 25-5 50% 27% 0%
10 40 Notre Dame (7-1) 22-9 45% 2% 0%
11 41 Iona (4-2) 25-6 66% 46% 0%
11 42 Georgetown (4-2) 18-11 54% 9% 0%e BE
11 43 Cincinnati (6-1) 21-10 53% 12% 0%
11 44 California (6-1) 21-10 47% 6% 0%
12 45 Harvard (5-1) 21-7 58% 54% 0%
12 46 Oklahoma St (7-0) 19-11 51% 5% 0%
12 47 Providence (6-1) 20-11 47% 7% 0% BE
12 48 UCLA (6-2) 19-12 49% 7% 0%
12 49 Georgia St (5-2) 24-7 69% 57% 0%
13 50 WI-Grn Bay (5-1) 21-8 51% 39% 0%
13 51 UCSB (3-3) 21-9 51% 38% 0%
13 52 Colorado (5-1) 18-10 43% 5% 0%
13 53 NC State (6-1) 19-12 40% 1% 0%
13 54 Buffalo (4-2) 21-9 43% 24% 0%
14 55 E Washingtn (6-1) 24-7 52% 45% 0%
14 56 N Mex State (3-5) 21-10 69% 68% 0%
14 57 Wofford (6-2) 23-8 47% 43% 0%
14 58 Ste F Austin (4-3) 24-7 52% 51% 0%
15 59 NC Central (4-3) 24-6 70% 70% 0%
15 60 Vermont (4-3) 19-10 43% 42% 0%
15 61 Coastal Car (5-2) 22-8 47% 47% 0%
15 62 E Kentucky (4-2) 20-9 32% 30% 0%
16 63 TX Southern (1-6) 14-17 42% 42% 0%
16 64 SC Upstate (6-2) 22-9 40% 40% 0%
16 65 Lafayette (4-2) 20-9 27% 23% 0%
16 66 St Fran (PA) (3-4) 16-13 22% 22% 0%
16 67 Northeastrn (5-2) 19-12 22% 18% 0%
16 68 Denver (3-3) 17-12 20% 20% 0%

[adoraz]

Can someone explain why ESPN's RPI rankings are so low for Big East?

2 top 50 teams, 6 top 100 teams.

The rankings don't make sense. How is Marquette at 83 with a 4-3 record? Are they weighing this more heavily towards SoS or something?

Meanwhile ACC has 8 top 50 teams.

Yet, comparing conference RPI on websites like CBS ACC is either slightly behind BE or slightly ahead depending on the day.

[Bill Marsh]

Can someone explain why ESPN's RPI rankings are so low for Big East?

2 top 50 teams, 6 top 100 teams.

The rankings don't make sense. How is Marquette at 83 with a 4-3 record? Are they weighing this more heavily towards SoS or something?

Meanwhile ACC has 8 top 50 teams.

Yet, comparing conference RPI on websites like CBS ACC is either slightly behind BE or slightly ahead depending on the day.

All you need to know about RPI at this time of the year is that Green Bay is ranked #3 in the country.

It's a flawed formula to begin with and all of its warts show at this point in the season. Ignore it or it will drive you insane.

[robinreed]

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 3 Conf. SOS Rank: 7

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Teams that made the tournament are in bold
This page updates daily.
Last updated - Fri Dec 5 12:00:14 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Down 18 From Last WeekDown 18 From Last Week 23 Seton Hall 0-0 5-0 0.6538 109 0.5385
Up 43 From Last WeekUp 43 From Last Week 26 Villanova 0-0 7-0 0.6503 120 0.5338
Up 1 From Last Week 34 Butler 0-0 6-1 0.6409 60 0.5718
Down 12 From Last WeekDown 12 From Last Week 38 Providence 0-0 6-1 0.6356 82 0.5541
Down 19 From Last WeekDown 19 From Last Week 74 St. John's 0-0 4-1 0.5875 153 0.5166
Down 2 From Last Week 92 Georgetown 0-0 4-1 0.5639 124 0.5297
Up 7 From Last Week 109 Xavier 0-0 5-2 0.5506 135 0.5242
Down 16 From Last WeekDown 16 From Last Week 112 Marquette 0-0 4-3 0.5459 52 0.5773
Up 67 From Last WeekUp 67 From Last Week 156 DePaul 0-0 5-1 0.5136 281 0.4412
Down 36 From Last WeekDown 36 From Last Week 164 Creighton 0-0 6-2 0.5095 280 0.4412

Nova, Hall and Butler looking good Depaul and Creighton not so much. Good luck to all.

[robinreed]

CONFERENCE RPI RANKINGS

Rank Conference Rating Top Team Last
1 Big 12 0.619 Iowa State (5-1) 1
2 Big Ten 0.599 Wisconsin (7-1) 2
3 ACC 0.582 Duke (8-0) 3
4 Big East 0.574 Villanova (7-0) 4
5 SEC 0.571 Kentucky (8-0) 5
6 Pac-12 0.548 Arizona (7-0) 6
7 MVC 0.533 N Iowa (7-0) 7
8 American 0.523 S Methodist (5-3) 8
9 Atlantic 10 0.515 Richmond (3-3) 9
10 Horizon League 0.506 WI-Grn Bay (5-2) 10
11 MAC 0.502 Buffalo (4-2) 11
12 Big West 0.495 UCSB (4-3) 12
13 CAA 0.494 NC-Wilmgton (3-2) 13
14 WCC 0.490 Gonzaga (7-0) 14
15 Mountain West 0.483 Colorado St (7-0) 15
16 Big South 0.462 Gard-Webb (4-4) 18
17 America East 0.461 Massachusetts Lowell (6-2) 17
18 Independents 0.458 NJIT (2-5) 16
19 Atlantic Sun 0.453 Fla Gulf Cst (7-1) 19
20 Southern 0.452 E Tenn St (5-1) 21
21 Big Sky 0.451 E Washingtn (6-1) 20
22 Ohio Valley 0.443 Belmont (7-1) 23
23 Sun Belt 0.441 Georgia St (6-2) 22
24 Patriot 0.438 Holy Cross (4-1) 24
25 CUSA 0.437 Old Dominion (6-1) 25
26 MEAC 0.432 NC Central (5-3) 27
27 Summit 0.430 N Dakota St (4-3) 26
28 WAC 0.425 N Mex State (3-5) 28
29 Southland 0.424 Ste F Austin (5-3) 29
30 MAAC 0.421 Iona (4-2) 30
31 Ivy 0.418 Harvard (5-1) 31
32 SWAC 0.399 Alabama St (2-3) 32
33 Northeast 0.387 Sacred Hrt (3-3) 33