Expansion: UAB to reunite with Marquette and DePaul in NBE?

[ohiohsbball]

Wow...I haven't had the chance to log on for a while, and when I do, I see another expansion thread.

New thread, but the same old posts that I honestly love and never get tired of reading. Here are some of my favorites:

1). Anything posted about Xavier (i.e. whatever that finance stuff was about) is a troll from Dayton. Anything posted about Dayton is a troll from Dayton.
2). Gonzaga is a legit candidate
3). UAB is a candidate to join the NBE.
4). Holding out hope that UCONN drops football and joins the NBE.

Those are just some of my favorites and why I love expansion threads. I agree with an earlier poster that it is a safe topic to speculate on because of how popular this topic was when this conference formed. I understand that this is just a message board of a bunch of fans that really do not have any inside information, which is really what makes it fun because I have come read posts from some really intelligent people that seem to know basketball.

My opinion, and I know a lot of people disagree with me, is that what I said last year at this time. The conference will expand within its first three years and numbers 11 and 12 will be St. Louis and Dayton. I may be wrong, but that is just a gut feeling. Ten teams may be an ideal number, but if what is reported is true about Fox Sports shelling out more money for the conference to go to 12, I just don't see the BE standing pat at 10 too much longer, especially when you have a St. Louis market and a Dayton teams that travels about as well as any team around. I know Xavier and other posters on here dislike Dayton, but facts are facts; they put butts in seats which is why ESPN has Dayton in a lot of tournaments at the beginning of the season and why the NCAA is keeping the first 4 at UD. Who else will get 12,000 fans to a game no one really cares about. Admit it, if Xavier wasn't playing in the first four last year, how many fans on here would have a vested interested in those games? Not me, but the city of Dayton does. While those reasons may not be rational toward conference affiliation, that is just my opinion that I'm sure will be bashed on here. I remember last year this time that St. Louis was a lock and the last spot was between Dayton and Richmond; I haven't heard Richmond on this board in months because they were not good last year.

Ideally everyone wants the league to stay at 10 and if they do, that is great. I like 10 team leagues, but the reality is everything is driven by money. So, IF there is expansion, I see Dayton and St. Louis.

On a side note, the BE has had a great start to the season; 7 teams are receiving votes for the top 25. Hopefully the momentum keeps rolling through conference play and the league can have a multi-bid year in the NCAA.

Just so that you can be made clear about the UD troll spreading false rumors about Xavier, the guy who was spreading the rumors about Xavier uses the name "UD FAN" here. Is he actually a UD fan? What else do we have to go by?

It is highly unlikely that the conference will expand next year - the Conference's 3rd year, so I wouldn't get my hopes up. This conference was put together based upon strong branding. UD does not have a strong brand. UD is only relevant to people in the Dayton area. Nobody cares about how well UD thinks it travels, Fox does not give a shit about the play-in games. This is first and foremost about branding and television. The last viable school that will make it into this conference is UD, given that it is less than 50 miles up the road from Xavier. The C7 will want an addition from the East when an addition is wanted by the Big East and Fox. They will not go to 12 for the sake of going to 12, regardless of whether or not Fox is willing to bump its payout deal. It's really very simple, especially if the Fox money deal is legitimate: if 12 were the obvious number when this was getting put together - if SLU and UD were regarded as obvious peers at that point - they would have been included up front.

I've never seen the "UD Fan" on here, but this time of year I'm busy with my team so with the exception of once or twice a week in the morning I'm generally not on here much.

I respect your points, but we can agree to disagree. My hopes aren't up, so I could really care less. Don't tell me how no one cares about how well UD travels and fills arenas. Have you seen some of the NBE games on Fox Sports? Have you seen empty arenas at St. Johns? Depaul? Seton Hall? Even Georgetown? When Fox wants to grow, don't tell me they don't care about Dayton's following because Dayton is a good atmosphere on TV. Every year they have one of the top tv markets as far as ratings go for college basketball. I know everyone on here hates ESPN, but that is why they are always on their pre-season tournaments. Dayton outdrew Gonzaga last year to Maui and this year outdrew Uconn in Puerto Rico.

Look, I'm not advocating for Dayton; as I said I could really care less. These are just simply my opinions. When the conference expands I feel that SLU and Dayton are on the radar. If I'm wrong, so be it. I don't buy the east coast school because everyone says that Dayton and SLU will "water down" the conference. What the hell will Richmond do? Provide another empty arena to be shown on Fox Sports 1?

I enjoy reading your posts and agree with most of what you said; just don't agree with your points on expansion.

[ChestRockwell85]

"I notice Johhnies playing someone in a small empty arena and when I say empty the seats next to and behind both benches EMPTY and St. John's across center court and Big East in the lanes. The game was not on a big screen so I'm sure not many people paid attention but this has to be troubling for Fox...if there is no one in the stands then there is no one sitting in front of tv watching this game. Any way you slice it, bad night for the Big East- empty arena."

I am a Villanova guy but I live on Long Island and go to a few St. John's games a year. Do NOT let Carnesecca Arena on the campus of St. John's in Queens, NY be ANY indicator of Big East basketball. I have been going to those games all my life. St. John's student support is DISGUSTING. St. John's fans have a hard time acknowledging that but it is just sad. Has been for as long as I can remember.

Games at MSG are HARDLY St. John's home games. When SJU plays a team like Syracuse or UConn or a team like Villanova or Providence that has a large number or alumni in the NYC area, it is hard to figure out which team is the home team and which team is the away team. Trust me.

[XU85]

I don't know why we aren't looking at Duke. Once UNC gets the death penalty, the ACC is toast. No decent schools left in that conference. Duke also fits our profile; it's a private, basketball-centric school. We got the FS1 contract locked up, so its not like they'd miss ESPN. Huge alumni base in New York, so they'd turn up for the conference tournament. I mean, I know they have football, but it's kind of a joke. They'd drop it in a heartbeat to come join us. It just makes sense, right? Make it happen, Val.

NOTE: The scenario I laid out is equally as likely as expansion is in the next 5 years. Just keep beating everyone in sight (except for Creighton), and health of the conference will be just fine.

Of that's the case, why did the Xavier AD say a year ago that the conference would be expanding within the next 5 years? We're now in. Year 2 of that time frame.

Bill I believe you are over interpreting whatever comments X's athletic director made last year. Do you have the link? I could not find the link, but he did not say the league would expand in the next five years. He may have said something to the effect there are no immediate plans for expansion, but who knows what can happen in five years. Also, last year was his first year as athletic director at X, so he would definitely not be the one to listen to for serious expansion talk.

[DudeAnon]

Weird that expansion talk makes people so emotional, I figure some of this comes from the newcomers wanting maintain their promoted status over old rivals and some from passed over candidates.



Fact of the matter is, College Athletics has been tumultous the past decade and hasn't completely stopped. Considering this conference was born by conference realignment, seems odd that we would be some would be so naive to think it won't happen again.

[Bluejay]

I respect your points, but we can agree to disagree. My hopes aren't up, so I could really care less. Don't tell me how no one cares about how well UD travels and fills arenas. Have you seen some of the NBE games on Fox Sports? Have you seen empty arenas at St. Johns? Depaul? Seton Hall? Even Georgetown? When Fox wants to grow, don't tell me they don't care about Dayton's following because Dayton is a good atmosphere on TV. Every year they have one of the top tv markets as far as ratings go for college basketball. I know everyone on here hates ESPN, but that is why they are always on their pre-season tournaments. Dayton outdrew Gonzaga last year to Maui and this year outdrew Uconn in Puerto Rico.

Ohio, I do not know that anyone here disputes what you are saying about the Dayton fanbase/attendence. I think where your point fails however is that you seem to believe that FOX somehow benefits from sold out arenas. They don't. They make their money on selling advertising and from carriage fees. Presumably, because of X's nearby presence, adding Dayton isn't going to add a lot of additional revenues in terms of additional carriage fees. While you can attempt to argue that sold out houses means that there are better TV ratings for those teams, I, as a fan of a school with top 5 attendance nationally last year, think that is a big time stretch. Just because a team may be popular in its local community does not mean it has a national following that would lead to some noticeable ratings bump, especially in the sport of college basketball where there are just so many D1 programs.

Similarly, the number of fans that travel does not benefit FOX either. Now ESPN, which owns some MTEs, does stand to benefit from ticket sales to those events. FOX though, at least until the time that they create their own MTEs, does not get any monetary bump because fans may attend an MTE.

I am sure that if FOX were to be picking expansion teams, they would push for big schools with huge fanbases and national followings, not small private schools.

[Xudash]

There is absolutely no chance the conference expands in the next three years and a miniscule chance of expanding in the next 10.

NO ONE wants expansion and there are no candidates. BYU and Gonzaga are the only two programs in the country that fit, but they are four time zones away. There is no one. There will not be expansion. Period.

"Hopefully can have a multibid year"

There will never be a year this league doesn't do that, it's set up for 5/6 now. And back to the original point, that's 60% of the conference earning NCAA credits to be distributed to 10 programs. More mouths to feed isn't what anyone is looking for.

I don't know what your source is, but the Xavier AD, Christopher, said exactly the opposite just a year ago.

The lower 48 states have only 4 time zones, so how can anyone be 4 time zones away? Fonzaga is 3 time zones away from some and two from others. BYU, in the Mountain TZ, is one time zone from some and 2 from others.

More mouths to feed is only a problem when you're dealing with a pie of a fixed size. The conference tournament didn't sell out last seasons, so there are more seats to be sold there. Once the tournament sells out, increased demand means higher ticket prices, which means further increased revenue. More conference members means increased Inventory, which means increased TV revenue. A higher conference profile means greater overall interest and therefore improved TV ratings.

I don't know if expansion would increase or decrease revenue for each member, but I do know that it's a more complex issue than just "more mouths to feed."

Bill,

I remember that interview with Christopher: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNgYxM14xdo. Go to the 5:15 mark to pick-up the discussion of expansion. Importantly, as they were coming off that topic during that interview, he noted that expansion is the domain of the university Presidents. The C7 will want an eastern addition. His list of the four possible candidates - VCU, Richmond, Dayton and SLU - was the list at that time. If that is the list that survives the final cut, then UD and SLU will be in a dogfight for the last spot, and that is where I believe the elephant in the room - television market - will favor SLU.

Nonetheless, though it probably is safe to assume that those 4 schools will remain candidates, you have to figure that the Presidents are not going to be myopic about this; they'll throw other desired candidates into the mix. That brings us back to the idea that it will be closer to 5 years than to what is now becoming 3 years, as they probably continue to monitor the football landscape for material changes there.

[stever20]

I think the UAB thing is huge not in them coming to be Big East(No way at all that happens) but rather the perhaps seismic shift that is going to be coming soon regarding FBS football. Of the current 62 G5/Army/BYU teams wouldn't be shocked to see 10 or more get rid of football. got to remember from the 1978 season to the 1995 season- 4 dropped football and several others dropped to 1-AA. I think this is a MUCH bigger seismic shift quite frankly. So with that, I think we're going to find some programs dropping football that would be extremely interesting for basketball conferences. The map in 2020 is going to look a LOT different than it does today. UAB is merely the first drip.

[BEwannabe]

something must be lost in translation stever-Army and BYU in the same sentence with dropping football. BYU is a money printing machine in football. To my knowledge only 3 teams have their own network, Texas, BYU and Notre Dame and another money printing machine supports Army football.

[R Jay]

Outside of Army and BYU, I think Stever is right. FBS Schools are going to drop football (some might try to drop it to FCS level, but most will probably drop it completely). This all goes back to the autonomy of the Football 5.

[BEwannabe]

ok it has to do with the autonomy of the F5, so what makes you all think the F5 is going to embrace anyone outside their elite club to play for a Championship in anything? Not sure what good comes of less people playing football at the FBS level. I think you folks might be spotting a trend but not following it to its likely conclusion. Ohio State could care less about the Big East, I'll bet if I asked 20 random Ohio State fans what teams make up the Big East not 1 of them would get even half of the teams right.