Xudash wrote:ohiohsbball wrote:Wow...I haven't had the chance to log on for a while, and when I do, I see another expansion thread.
New thread, but the same old posts that I honestly love and never get tired of reading. Here are some of my favorites:
1). Anything posted about Xavier (i.e. whatever that finance stuff was about) is a troll from Dayton. Anything posted about Dayton is a troll from Dayton.
2). Gonzaga is a legit candidate
3). UAB is a candidate to join the NBE.
4). Holding out hope that UCONN drops football and joins the NBE.
Those are just some of my favorites and why I love expansion threads. I agree with an earlier poster that it is a safe topic to speculate on because of how popular this topic was when this conference formed. I understand that this is just a message board of a bunch of fans that really do not have any inside information, which is really what makes it fun because I have come read posts from some really intelligent people that seem to know basketball.
My opinion, and I know a lot of people disagree with me, is that what I said last year at this time. The conference will expand within its first three years and numbers 11 and 12 will be St. Louis and Dayton. I may be wrong, but that is just a gut feeling. Ten teams may be an ideal number, but if what is reported is true about Fox Sports shelling out more money for the conference to go to 12, I just don't see the BE standing pat at 10 too much longer, especially when you have a St. Louis market and a Dayton teams that travels about as well as any team around. I know Xavier and other posters on here dislike Dayton, but facts are facts; they put butts in seats which is why ESPN has Dayton in a lot of tournaments at the beginning of the season and why the NCAA is keeping the first 4 at UD. Who else will get 12,000 fans to a game no one really cares about. Admit it, if Xavier wasn't playing in the first four last year, how many fans on here would have a vested interested in those games? Not me, but the city of Dayton does. While those reasons may not be rational toward conference affiliation, that is just my opinion that I'm sure will be bashed on here. I remember last year this time that St. Louis was a lock and the last spot was between Dayton and Richmond; I haven't heard Richmond on this board in months because they were not good last year.
Ideally everyone wants the league to stay at 10 and if they do, that is great. I like 10 team leagues, but the reality is everything is driven by money. So, IF there is expansion, I see Dayton and St. Louis.
On a side note, the BE has had a great start to the season; 7 teams are receiving votes for the top 25. Hopefully the momentum keeps rolling through conference play and the league can have a multi-bid year in the NCAA.
Just so that you can be made clear about the UD troll spreading false rumors about Xavier, the guy who was spreading the rumors about Xavier uses the name "UD FAN" here. Is he actually a UD fan? What else do we have to go by?
It is highly unlikely that the conference will expand next year - the Conference's 3rd year, so I wouldn't get my hopes up. This conference was put together based upon strong branding. UD does not have a strong brand. UD is only relevant to people in the Dayton area. Nobody cares about how well UD thinks it travels, Fox does not give a shit about the play-in games. This is first and foremost about branding and television. The last viable school that will make it into this conference is UD, given that it is less than 50 miles up the road from Xavier. The C7 will want an addition from the East when an addition is wanted by the Big East and Fox. They will not go to 12 for the sake of going to 12, regardless of whether or not Fox is willing to bump its payout deal. It's really very simple, especially if the Fox money deal is legitimate: if 12 were the obvious number when this was getting put together - if SLU and UD were regarded as obvious peers at that point - they would have been included up front.
Bill Marsh wrote:Doge McDermott wrote:I don't know why we aren't looking at Duke. Once UNC gets the death penalty, the ACC is toast. No decent schools left in that conference. Duke also fits our profile; it's a private, basketball-centric school. We got the FS1 contract locked up, so its not like they'd miss ESPN. Huge alumni base in New York, so they'd turn up for the conference tournament. I mean, I know they have football, but it's kind of a joke. They'd drop it in a heartbeat to come join us. It just makes sense, right? Make it happen, Val.
NOTE: The scenario I laid out is equally as likely as expansion is in the next 5 years. Just keep beating everyone in sight (except for Creighton), and health of the conference will be just fine.
Of that's the case, why did the Xavier AD say a year ago that the conference would be expanding within the next 5 years? We're now in. Year 2 of that time frame.
ohiohsbball wrote:I respect your points, but we can agree to disagree. My hopes aren't up, so I could really care less. Don't tell me how no one cares about how well UD travels and fills arenas. Have you seen some of the NBE games on Fox Sports? Have you seen empty arenas at St. Johns? Depaul? Seton Hall? Even Georgetown? When Fox wants to grow, don't tell me they don't care about Dayton's following because Dayton is a good atmosphere on TV. Every year they have one of the top tv markets as far as ratings go for college basketball. I know everyone on here hates ESPN, but that is why they are always on their pre-season tournaments. Dayton outdrew Gonzaga last year to Maui and this year outdrew Uconn in Puerto Rico.
Bill Marsh wrote:Edrick wrote:There is absolutely no chance the conference expands in the next three years and a miniscule chance of expanding in the next 10.
NO ONE wants expansion and there are no candidates. BYU and Gonzaga are the only two programs in the country that fit, but they are four time zones away. There is no one. There will not be expansion. Period.
"Hopefully can have a multibid year"
There will never be a year this league doesn't do that, it's set up for 5/6 now. And back to the original point, that's 60% of the conference earning NCAA credits to be distributed to 10 programs. More mouths to feed isn't what anyone is looking for.
I don't know what your source is, but the Xavier AD, Christopher, said exactly the opposite just a year ago.
The lower 48 states have only 4 time zones, so how can anyone be 4 time zones away? Fonzaga is 3 time zones away from some and two from others. BYU, in the Mountain TZ, is one time zone from some and 2 from others.
More mouths to feed is only a problem when you're dealing with a pie of a fixed size. The conference tournament didn't sell out last seasons, so there are more seats to be sold there. Once the tournament sells out, increased demand means higher ticket prices, which means further increased revenue. More conference members means increased Inventory, which means increased TV revenue. A higher conference profile means greater overall interest and therefore improved TV ratings.
I don't know if expansion would increase or decrease revenue for each member, but I do know that it's a more complex issue than just "more mouths to feed."
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