RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[stever20]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?

yeah 23-8 seems awfully pessimistic for Nova 26-5 that Ken Pom is projecting seems pretty reasonable(going 15-5 in those 20 games you mentioned).

Pretty much I can guarantee you whoever finishes in the league in 4th-6th place is going to be on the bubble.

[handdownmandown]

Three things.

First, the problem with all these projections is no one is really sure how good anyone else is. A couple of projected non-conference bad teams do much better than expected in conference, or vice versa, and the numbers wind up being way off.

And whoever pointed out the lack of league tourney games is spot on; generally for big leagues, the winner of a game gets a nice bump in RPI, while the loser stays about the same, due to the improvement in schedule strength offsetting the loss.

The third thing is the whole normalization of the final numbers. Right now the projection is that the bottom 2 teams are projected to win 10 total league games, and the 8th place team is Creighton at 8-10. Well, it's a season - things never turn out 'normal'. 10 wins for whomever the bottom 2 league teams would be a disaster, and at any rate I would consider that to be the ceiling; drop that number to 6 or 7 and suddenly all the top teams look better due to the 3 or 4 extra wins being dispersed. Also, 8-10 will not be the eighth place record; someone will have devastating injuries, lose a lot of their close games, or otherwise underperform enough to go 6-12 or so and donate more wins to the top 6 or 7 teams. Give whoever the top 6 winds up as an extra win, take away a loss, factor in the tournament, and suddenly everyone is off the bubble.

5 is our floor for # of qualifiers; 6 equally likely and becoming more likely as time goes on.

One last thing that makes me dismiss such projections, they have Creighton down at 5-4 at home in conference. Umm... Ok.

[marquette]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?

It fits stever's pessimistic agenda to look at the projections right now.

[DudeAnon]

Lunardi, who happens to make living off of all this bullsh--, says we get 6 in, and stever20's conference gets 1 in. Thats all I need to know.

[Bill Marsh]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?

yeah 23-8 seems awfully pessimistic for Nova 26-5 that Ken Pom is projecting seems pretty reasonable(going 15-5 in those 20 games you mentioned).

Pretty much I can guarantee you whoever finishes in the league in 4th-6th place is going to be on the bubble.

The projection isn't optimistic and it isn't pessimistic. It's the result of thousands of simulations, running Sagarin's current power rating through each team's schedule. 23-8 is simply how the formula played out, given the schedule that Villanova faces. The projection may prove to be wrong, but it isn't biased for or against any team. It's purely a statistical projection. Apparently Sagarin doesn't rate Villanova as highly as you and Ken Pom do or he favors Nova's opponents more highly.

[Bill Marsh]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?

You say that Nova will be favored in all remaining OOC games. It's not as simple as that. A team can be favored by 1 point or by 21 points. The 21 point game is a virtual lock while the 1 point game is basically a toss up even though one team is technically favored.

With Illinois and Syracuse remaining on the schedule, that's two toss ups regardless of who is favored. Villanova could go 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 in these2 games. RPI Forecast is saying that given that both games are about a 50% chance do winning! Villanova will probably lose one of them, finishing the OOC schedule at 12-1.

The same approach is applied to the conference schedule, resulting in some projected losses in games in which Villanova (or any team) is projected as a slight favorite. A team that wins all the close games can really beat the odds, but that's not the way it usually happens. Will Villanova go 11-7 in The Big East? No one knows. I expected Villanova to run away with the league but I also expected Butler to finish 8th and Creighton 9th. So much for my predictions. So many BE teams have looked good early and have had surprising big wins that statistically the conference looks to be very close right now with a lot of evenly matched games. Hence, Villanova projects to 11-7, base don't here early season results. Things may and probably will change.

[robinreed]

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 3 Conf. SOS Rank: 4

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Teams that made the tournament are in bold
This page updates daily.
Last updated - Tue Dec 2 12:57:07 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
5 Seton Hall 0-0 4-0 0.7336 19 0.6449
Down 3 From Last Week 29 Providence 0-0 6-1 0.6516 68 0.5755
Down 2 From Last Week 37 Butler 0-0 5-1 0.6420 55 0.5868
Up 1 From Last Week 54 St. John's 0-0 3-1 0.6154 73 0.5706
Up 8 From Last Week 61 Villanova 0-0 6-0 0.6092 214 0.4789
Up 1 From Last Week 89 Georgetown 0-0 4-1 0.5691 113 0.5366
Up 2 From Last Week 94 Marquette 0-0 4-3 0.5665 41 0.6048
116 Xavier 0-0 5-2 0.5487 138 0.5217
Down 2 From Last Week 130 Creighton 0-0 6-1 0.5342 260 0.4456
Down 3 From Last Week 226 DePaul 0-0 3-1 0.4592 289 0.4247

[robinreed]

Predictive rating for top 50

The BIG EAST has 3 of the top 25 and 4 of the top 50
Rank Rating High Low Last
1 Kentucky (7-0) 32.4 1 180 1
2 Duke (7-0) 28.7 1 179 2
3 Wisconsin (7-0) 25.1 3 190 4
4 Louisville (6-0) 24.8 4 266 5
5 Gonzaga (7-0) 24.2 1 309 3
6 N Carolina (5-1) 23.2 6 49 7
7 Utah (5-1) 21.9 7 335 10
8 Ohio State (5-1) 21.2 4 271 8
9 Texas (7-0) 20.1 4 48 6
10 Illinois (6-1) 19.9 9 323 9
11 W Virginia (7-0) 19.8 11 114 12
12 Wichita St (4-0) 19.1 11 73 11
13 Butler (5-1) 18.6 9 215 13 BIG EAST
14 Miami (FL) (8-0) 18.5 10 256 16
15 Notre Dame (6-1) 18.4 7 274 14
16 Virginia (7-0) 18.2 13 325 15
17 Arkansas (6-0) 17.5 13 249 17
18 San Diego St (5-1) 17.0 18 338 18
19 Michigan St (5-2) 17.0 18 275 19
20 Villanova (6-0) 16.8 20 70 20 BIG EAST
21 Xavier (5-2) 16.4 8 26 23 BIG EAST
22 Baylor (6-1) 16.4 9 186 21
23 Arizona (7-0) 15.5 22 216 26
24 Syracuse (5-2) 15.4 5 52 22
25 Purdue (6-1) 15.1 17 295 24
26 Oklahoma (4-2) 15.0 24 296 28
27 Kansas (5-1) 14.9 27 189 27
28 Iowa State (4-1) 14.5 23 312 35
29 California (5-1) 14.5 16 65 25
30 E Kentucky (4-1) 14.5 5 198 30
31 Maryland (7-0) 14.4 12 276 33
32 Davidson (4-1) 14.3 32 342 32
33 Iowa (5-2) 14.3 7 305 29
34 BYU (6-2) 13.3 33 254 34
35 Texas A&M (4-1) 12.9 3 270 36
36 Stanford (4-2) 12.9 16 85 37
37 Providence (6-1) 12.7 32 205 38 BIG EAST
38 VCU (5-2) 12.6 19 46 39
39 Evansville (5-1) 12.3 2 142 31
40 Oklahoma St (6-0) 12.2 38 328 40
41 Iona (4-2) 11.7 35 180 41
42 TX Christian (7-0) 11.6 38 317 43
43 Geo Wshgtn (3-2) 11.6 12 275 42
44 N Iowa (7-0) 11.3 2 156 45
45 Minnesota (5-2) 11.3 33 96 59
46 Oregon (4-2) 11.2 9 154 44
47 E Washingtn (6-1) 10.9 22 50 47
48 NC State (6-1) 10.8 26 241 49
49 Valparaiso (7-1) 10.7 46 209 46
50 Dayton (4-1) 10.5 47 192 48

[stever20]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?

yeah 23-8 seems awfully pessimistic for Nova 26-5 that Ken Pom is projecting seems pretty reasonable(going 15-5 in those 20 games you mentioned).

Pretty much I can guarantee you whoever finishes in the league in 4th-6th place is going to be on the bubble.

The projection isn't optimistic and it isn't pessimistic. It's the result of thousands of simulations, running Sagarin's current power rating through each team's schedule. 23-8 is simply how the formula played out, given the schedule that Villanova faces. The projection may prove to be wrong, but it isn't biased for or against any team. It's purely a statistical projection. Apparently Sagarin doesn't rate Villanova as highly as you and Ken Pom do or he favors Nova's opponents more highly.

RPI forecast having conference champ only at 12-6 is a complete joke. Last year in every single 10 team conference the conference champ had at least 14 wins. To think that Nova in the 20 games against teams with a pulse(well 18 plus the 2 vs DePaul), that Nova would only go 12-8 is frankly insulting, especially considering that 10 of those games are home and 1 is neutral.

Pretty much what RPI forecast is projecting just never happens in real life. A team or two gets hot and is way better than 12-6 or 11-7. Yes even 2nd place(last year in all 10 team round robin conferences no 2nd place team finished worse than 12-6 and most were at least 13-5.

[Bill Marsh]

What is RPI Forecast?

There seems to be some misunderstanding on this point and a tendency to take this kind of early season formula too seriously. (Steve?)

First, it is NOT a prediction of March outcomes. Anyone who wants that, can go ESPN.com where they currently have an article with a bunch of their experts doing exactly that. RPI Forecast isn't one. Of those.

Second, it's not the current RPI. They have a section of their website that does that like any of the others you can find. RPI at this time of year is totally meaningless. Just one look at Joe Lunardi's results of his formula which claims to be a. Reliable representation of the NCAA formula shows that. Here's some of the rankings according to that:

1. Green Bay (3-1)
14. Charlotte (4-2)
15. UC Irvine (2-2)
17. Northern Iowa (7-0)
19. Sacramento State (2-1)
24. Holy Cross (2-1)

Green Bay #1 in the country? Yeah, sure. So much for current RPI calculations.

Third, the best statistical analysis of current results to compare teams is found at the various power rankings. That's where I go if I want to see how matchups compare in terms of relative team strengths. So, why not just look at them and stop there? Because RPI is the primary tool that the committee uses when it evaluates teams and it doesn't always match up with power ratings

Fourth, what is RPI Forecast? Rather than a predictor of future results, it is a comparison of current strength using the actual results of games played so far this year. Since current RPI is completely useless (Green Bay #1) and only begins to have value in January/February when there is sufficient data, what to do to see how teams stack up on this measure? RPI Forecast uses the relatively reliable - but ever changing - current power ratings and applies them to future games to create sufficient data to have meaningful results. It's saying:

"This is what end-of-year results would look like IF . . ."

They know that it's a bid IF. They know that they can't predict the future. But they also know that by now we have actual game results and current data vs offseason rankings which are only based on talent evaluations and last performance. It is simply a tool to assess CURRENT strength of each team using in season results to date. It's one lens through which to view this years results to date, using a more reasonable RPI analysis of the information. The point is simply to have an RPI lens to supplement the power rating lens.

Fifth, they don't pick games. They're statisticians, so they play the odds. If a team is favored two-to-one to win each of their next 3 games, they don't project 3 wins. They play the odds that there is a 1 in 3 chance that one of those games will be a loss. So, they assume 2-1, not 3-0 for those 3 games without predicting which if the 3 will be the loss.

While that's the basic idea, it's actually more complicated than that. Their computers run 10,000 simulations of the results daily and spit out the results of their formula, which provides an RPI number with future record for the season and is then ranked. The results of every game affect all 350 teams as everything is recalculated daily.

I try to have fun with it to see how teams are currently stacking up, but I don't take it too seriously. No one can predict the future. Anyone see UConn winning it all last year?