What it would take for each team to be ranked

[Bill Marsh]

Another thread gone off topic...let's bring it back or kill it. Here's my effort:

We have 7 of 10 teams already either ranked or receiving votes. All 7 of them have a somewhat realistic shot of breaking through by the time conference play starts- getting at least 5 in would be awesome and all 7 would really set us up nicely.

Everybody pretty much just holding serve and avoiding bad losses at this point could actually be enough.

Everybody (receiving votes +) has at least 1 marquee win except Seton Hall and St. John's,

and they each have a chance for one coming up. Even if they each lose their big game (@ Wichita State and @ Syracuse, respectively), if they each keep it competitive and make it their only loss from now to Dec. 31st, they could potentially still find themselves sneaking into the #24 or #25 spot just on sheer win total (would make St. John's 10-2 and Seton Hall 11-1).

It's all easier said than done, but not unrealistic at this point. The toughest part of the non-con schedule is over for a lot of us.

St. John's may not have a marquis win, but their win over a 100 P5 team like Minnesota on a neutral court was a very strong signature win so far.

[Bill Marsh]

I think Creighton's toughest part of the non-conference is this week. Their first two true road games, @Tulsa and @Nebraska. Tulsa has almost everyone back from the NCAA team a year ago and although they have vastly underperformed this year so far (probably due to Frank Haith implementing a new system), they are still dangerous and at home. @Nebraska will be a heated rivalry game and Nebraska has only lost @home one time in the last two years. I would be disappointed but not surprised if we went 0-2.

Maybe Tulsa's not underperforming. Maybe their success last year was due the fact that they competed in a very weak CUSA. If you look back, you'll see that they were even worse in November last year, opening the season with 4 straight losses and losing 6 of their first 7. They were 5-9 OOC overall last season when they lost to the following:

Oral Roberts
TCU twice
Missouri State
Green Bay

[adoraz]

Another thread gone off topic...let's bring it back or kill it. Here's my effort:

We have 7 of 10 teams already either ranked or receiving votes. All 7 of them have a somewhat realistic shot of breaking through by the time conference play starts- getting at least 5 in would be awesome and all 7 would really set us up nicely.

Everybody pretty much just holding serve and avoiding bad losses at this point could actually be enough.

Everybody (receiving votes +) has at least 1 marquee win except Seton Hall and St. John's,

and they each have a chance for one coming up. Even if they each lose their big game (@ Wichita State and @ Syracuse, respectively), if they each keep it competitive and make it their only loss from now to Dec. 31st, they could potentially still find themselves sneaking into the #24 or #25 spot just on sheer win total (would make St. John's 10-2 and Seton Hall 11-1).

It's all easier said than done, but not unrealistic at this point. The toughest part of the non-con schedule is over for a lot of us.

St. John's may not have a marquis win, but their win over a 100 P5 team like Minnesota on a neutral court was a very strong signature win so far.

Minnesota is #38 in KenPom and before this week they were in the high 20's in the AP. It's definitely a great win and better than any SJU OOC win last year.

[stever20]

I think Creighton's toughest part of the non-conference is this week. Their first two true road games, @Tulsa and @Nebraska. Tulsa has almost everyone back from the NCAA team a year ago and although they have vastly underperformed this year so far (probably due to Frank Haith implementing a new system), they are still dangerous and at home. @Nebraska will be a heated rivalry game and Nebraska has only lost @home one time in the last two years. I would be disappointed but not surprised if we went 0-2.

Tulsa yeah they lost to Oral Roberts but their other 2 losses- vs Oklahoma St and @ Wichita St by 15/20 points respectively. Beat Auburn by 18. Going to be a real good barometer game for them quite frankly.If you just look at their record maybe saying they've vastly underperformed, but really looking at 2/3 losses- tough to say that.

Nebraska coming off win in the ACC/B10 challenge. Looking at Ken Pom- Creighton Off/Nebraska Def- C is 27, N is 22. Nebraska Off/Creighton Def- N 91, C 100. Real good matchup there.

[Hall2012]

Good point about teams starting to play their first road games- I didn't consider it but it's definitely a factor in how tough games will be. My point about the toughest part of the schedule being past was that most teams have their top 1 or 2 strongest opponents out of the way- I should have worded it better. There's a lot more decent teams (so somewhat losable games) coming up a opposed to cupcakes, but I think only Seton Hall and Marquette have their strongest non-con opponent still to come.

[adoraz]

Good point about teams starting to play their first road games- I didn't consider it but it's definitely a factor in how tough games will be. My point about the toughest part of the schedule being past was that most teams have their top 1 or 2 strongest opponents out of the way- I should have worded it better. There's a lot more decent teams (so somewhat losable games) coming up a opposed to cupcakes, but I think only Seton Hall and Marquette have their strongest non-con opponent still to come.

True, now we have a lot of decent teams on the road which is still a challenge but not quite as tough.

SJU I think also has the toughest part of our schedule remaining. Played Gonzaga and Minnesota but still have Duke, @ Syraucse, and St. Mary's.

Also, for those that don't know we are officially halfway through OOC play. On average BE teams have played 6 of the 12 games.

[stever20]

Good point about teams starting to play their first road games- I didn't consider it but it's definitely a factor in how tough games will be. My point about the toughest part of the schedule being past was that most teams have their top 1 or 2 strongest opponents out of the way- I should have worded it better. There's a lot more decent teams (so somewhat losable games) coming up a opposed to cupcakes, but I think only Seton Hall and Marquette have their strongest non-con opponent still to come.

True, now we have a lot of decent teams on the road which is still a challenge but not quite as tough.

SJU I think also has the toughest part of our schedule remaining. Played Gonzaga and Minnesota but still have Duke, @ Syraucse, and St. Mary's.

Also, for those that don't know we are officially halfway through OOC play. On average BE teams have played 6 of the 12 games.

yes played 6 of the 12-13 games- but just numerically we have more games against top 100 left than we've played so far. Think it's like 28 left 24 played so far.

[adoraz]

Updated after a few ranked/borderline ranked teams played tonight...

NOTE: + means they gained spots from the prior week (for example- Nova was #12 last week and #10 this week in the AP so they are +2)

#34 AP (-11)/ #34 CP (+2) Creighton- with their loss @ Tulsa, they will lose more ground and won't be ranked on Monday even with a win @ Nebraska. May not be ranked again before OOC play ends even if they win out.
DePaul- playing well at 4-1 with a win over Stanford, but due to their easy OOC schedule and Lehigh loss they'd need to win every game prior to BE play for a shot at being ranked. And even then, I'm not certain they'd make it.
#33 AP (-3)/ #36 CP (-6) Georgetown- would've been ranked had they won either of their last 2 games, but not far off from being ranked. Despite the last 2 games, I think they'll be ranked if they beat Towson and then #11 Kansas on December 10.
Marquette- respectable week after a mediocre start. They're 4-3 but have had a tough schedule. Still some big games left, but even if they win out in OOC play I don't think they'll be ranked. As a side note, if they do well rest of OOC play they'll be in good shape for making the tournament since their schedule is so tough.
#29 AP (-1)/ #27 CP (-2) Providence- even with their loss @ #1 Kentucky they hardly dropped, so still within striking distance of being ranked in the AP and re-ranked in the CP. This week is @ BC which they should win but won't be easy. No big games coming up which may be a good thing. As long as they win they'll make it back into the AP 25 in the next couple weeks as others drop out.
#39 AP (previously no votes) Seton Hall- still undefeated with last night's win, so if they win vs. Rutgers and @ #8 Wichita State on December 9 they'll be guaranteed to be ranked. May even be ranked if they lose to Rutgers and then win @ Wichita State.
#39 AP/ #44 CP (previously no votes) St. John's- took care of business vs. Niagara yesterday, if they win @ Syracuse on Saturday I think they'd be ranked. They'd be 6-1 with wins @ Syracuse, a neutral game vs. Minnesota, and the only loss being a neutral game vs. #9 Gonzaga.
Xavier- rough week with some close losses. Previously #50 in AP. Won't have a shot at being ranked prior to conference play even if they win out. Only team I feel is truly eliminated since they have an easy OOC schedule and no chances for statement wins.

And the teams that need to worry about hanging on.... (already in the top 25)

#23 AP/ #29 CP (previously no votes) Butler- nice road game win @ Indiana State to avoid the trap game after their strong performance last week. Still have a home game vs. Northwestern on Saturday they'll need to win to stay ranked, and they'll definitely be favored that game. May enter the CP ranked as well next week assuming they win.
#10 AP (+2)/ #9 CP (+2) Villanova- their win @ La Salle tonight guaranteed their ranking next week. Vs. St. Joe's on Saturday should be an easy win. Win vs. St. Joe's and they'll remain a top 10 team.

So, for next Monday....

Best case scenario:
Vilanova, Butler, Providence, St. John's ranked next week.
Worst case scenario:
Villanova the only ranked team
Most likely scenario:
Still a lot of games to be played but I predict same as this week. Villanova and Butler ranked.

[Bill Marsh]

Nice rundown, Adoraz. I enjoyed reading it. Thanks.

[Jet915]

I agree with this, if Providence and SJU can win this week, they have a good chance of getting ranked next week.