RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[Bill Marsh]

The Big East got a bump in RPI Forecast from yesterday's play.

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. PAC 12
6. SEC
7. West Coast
8. American
9. A10
10. Mid American

BIG EAST

21. Butler
24. Villanova
25. Xavier
30. Providence
39. Georgetown
40. Seton Hall
67. St. John's
80. Creighton
124. Marquette
176. DePaul

[robinreed]

WAY, WAY, WAY, WAY, WAY, WAY TOO EARLY SEED AND BIDS FOR THE NCAA

Seed Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 10 Villanova (6-0) 26-5 95% 37% 58% 4.4 58% 11%
5 20 Butler (5-1) 22-9 79% 17% 62% 6.8 24% 2%
8 29 Xavier (5-2) 21-10 71% 14% 57% 7.5 14% 1%
11 42 G-town (4-2) 18-11 56% 9% 47% 8.4 7% 0%
11 43 Provid (6-1) 20-11 54% 8% 47% 8.6 7% 0%
St Johns (4-1) 17-14 20% 3% 17% 9.6 1% 0%
Seton H (5-0) 17-13 21% 3% 18% 9.2 2% 0%
Creighton (6-1) 20-11 38% 7% 31% 9.2 3% 0%
Marqte (4-3) 15-15 10% 2% 8% 10.1 0% 0%
DePaul (3-1) 9-20 0% 0% 0% 12.6 0% 0%
THEY LIST THE BE WITH 4.4 BIDS WHICH MEANS WE WILL HAVE 4 TEAMS IN THE DANCE

[robinreed]

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 3

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Teams that made the tournament are in bold
This page updates daily.
Last updated - Mon Dec 1 12:34:51 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 89 From Last WeekUp 89 From Last Week 5 Seton Hall 0-0 4-0 0.7271 23 0.6361
Up 45 From Last WeekUp 45 From Last Week 26 Providence 0-0 6-1 0.6600 56 0.5866
Up 113 From Last WeekUp 113 From Last Week 38 Butler 0-0 5-1 0.6426 55 0.5875
Up 206 From Last WeekUp 206 From Last Week 57 St. John's 0-0 3-1 0.6142 73 0.5689
Up 120 From Last WeekUp 120 From Last Week 67 Villanova 0-0 6-0 0.5991 231 0.4655
Up 53 From Last WeekUp 53 From Last Week 69 Xavier 0-0 5-1 0.5983 83 0.5616
Down 57 From Last WeekDown 57 From Last Week 91 Georgetown 0-0 4-1 0.5683 112 0.5355
Up 111 From Last WeekUp 111 From Last Week 96 Marquette 0-0 3-3 0.5632 33 0.6200
Up 15 From Last WeekUp 15 From Last Week 126 Creighton 0-0 6-1 0.5352 261 0.4469
Down 69 From Last WeekDown 69 From Last Week 224 DePaul 0-0 3-1 0.4587 290 0.424

[Bill Marsh]

The Big East got a bump in RPI Forecast from yesterday's play.

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. PAC 12
6. SEC
7. West Coast
8. American
9. A10
10. Mid American

BIG EAST

21. Butler
24. Villanova
25. Xavier
30. Providence
39. Georgetown
40. Seton Hall
67. St. John's
80. Creighton
124. Marquette
176. DePaul

No real change for the Big East since no BE teams played last night. But the Big 10 - ACC Challenge had an immediate impact with the 2 conferences switching spots with the Nebraska and Rutgers wins.

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. Big 10
3. Big East
4. ACC
5. PAC 12
6. SEC
7. West Coast
8. A10
9. AAC
10. MAC

There are slight adjustments in the rankings of BE teams because the formula is recalculated every day. Even though BE teams didn't play, their opponents did, which affects how BE teams are ranked. Here's the latest, still showing the conference on track for 6 tournament bids.

BIG EAST

20. Butler
23. Villanova
25. Xavier
32. Providence
39. Georgetown
41. Seton Hall
68. St. John's
88. Creighton
124. Marquette
179. DePaul

[stever20]

the thing that is dangerous about using the ordinal ranks is that it doesn't match up with what the projected RPI's are at all...
Butler 23-8 projects to 23.1 RPI
VIllanova 23-8 projects to 26.9 RPI
Xavier 21-10 projects to 27.4 RPI
Providence 20-11 projects to 36.0 RPI
Georgetown 17-12 projects to 47.0 RPI
Seton Hall 19-11 projects to 47.3 RPI
St John's 17-13 projects to 73.8 RPI
Creighton 18-13 projects to 81.7 RPI
Marquette 14-16 projects to 116.8 RPI
DePaul 10-19 projects to 188.6 RPI(note 2 diamond-head games not counted).

Also have to remember this is just thru the regular season. With those projected RPI's, Georgetown and Seton Hall would be extremely on the bubble needing wins in the 1st rd of the BET to secure a bid. Especially Georgetown quite frankly wth only 17 wins and already 12 losses. I would say especially with Providence 20-12 with a mid to upper 40's RPI would be on the bubble- so that may be a play in game.

Also, this is assuming that the top teams would be only 12-6 in conference play. There will be a bit more seperation than that one would think. Frankly we should hope there is more seperation, having top 2 teams only at 23.1 and 26.9 is not good(would be like 6 or 7 seeds).

[robinreed]

I do not know how much I trust PREDICTIVE RANKINGS but here they are for the top 50 teams in the NCAA Division 1
Please note that 23 of 25 of the top 25 teams are P5 conference schools. The two exceptions are Villanova and Wichita.

PREDICTIVE RANKINGS -- TOP 50 DECEMBER 2, 2014

NCAA College Basketball Predictive Rankings & RatingsRank Rating v 1-25 v 26-50 v 51-100 High Low Last
1 Kentucky (7-0) 27.1 1-0 1-0 1-0 1 3 1
2 Duke (7-0) 25.3 1-0 1-0 0-0 1 2 2
3 Wisconsin (7-0) 22.5 1-0 1-0 2-0 2 6 3
4 Louisville (5-0) 21.9 0-0 1-0 0-0 3 5 4
5 Gonzaga (6-0) 21.6 0-0 1-0 2-0 3 12 5
6 Texas (6-0) 20.0 1-0 2-0 0-0 6 10 6
7 N Carolina (5-1) 20.0 0-0 2-1 2-0 6 11 7
8 Ohio State (5-0) 18.9 0-0 0-0 1-0 6 11 8
9 Arizona (6-0) 18.0 1-0 1-0 1-0 1 9 9
10 Illinois (6-0) 17.4 1-0 0-0 0-0 10 42 10
11 Utah (5-1) 17.0 0-1 0-0 0-0 11 37 11
12 Kansas (5-1) 17.0 1-1 0-0 2-0 4 18 12
13 Villanova (6-0) 16.7 0-0 2-0 0-0 8 21 13 BIG EAST
14 Virginia (7-0) 16.6 0-0 0-0 1-0 10 16 14
15 Wichita St (4-0) 16.3 0-0 0-0 3-0 11 17 15
16 Michigan St (5-2) 15.6 0-2 0-0 1-0 14 30 16
17 Arkansas (6-0) 15.3 0-0 2-0 0-0 13 29 17
18 San Diego St (5-1) 15.1 1-1 1-0 1-0 17 27 18
19 W Virginia (7-0) 14.8 0-0 1-0 0-0 19 58 19
20 Iowa State (3-1) 14.6 0-0 0-1 2-0 12 20 20
21 Oklahoma (4-2) 14.1 0-1 2-0 0-1 19 30 21
22 Iowa (5-2) 13.7 0-2 0-0 0-0 10 25 22
23 Syracuse (5-1) 13.6 1-0 0-1 0-0 20 35 23
24 Baylor (6-1) 13.6 0-1 0-0 2-0 24 40 25
25 Notre Dame (6-1) 13.5 0-0 0-1 1-0 23 69 24
26 Maryland (7-0) 13.3 1-0 0-0 1-0 15 26 26
27 Florida (3-3) 12.9 0-1 0-2 0-0 7 29 27
28 BYU (5-2) 12.8 0-1 0-1 2-0 26 36 28
29 VCU (4-2) 12.8 0-1 1-0 1-1 14 31 30
30 Miami (FL) (7-0) 12.8 0-0 1-0 0-0 20 82 29
31 Butler (5-1) 12.7 1-1 1-0 0-0 29 78 31 BIG EAST
32 Purdue (5-1) 12.2 0-0 1-1 0-0 32 53 32
33 Xavier (5-2) 12.1 0-0 0-0 1-2 20 66 33 BIG EAST
34 California (5-1) 11.7 1-1 0-0 0-0 31 58 34
35 S Methodist (4-3) 11.4 0-2 0-0 1-1 15 36 35
36 Oklahoma St (6-0) 11.3 0-0 0-0 1-0 32 43 36
37 Stanford (4-2) 11.1 0-1 0-0 1-0 24 56 37
38 N Iowa (7-0) 10.6 0-0 0-0 1-0 37 57 38
39 Georgetown (4-2) 10.5 0-1 1-1 0-0 31 51 39 BIG EAST
40 Texas A&M (4-1) 10.5 0-0 0-0 0-1 31 54 40
41 UCLA (5-2) 10.3 0-2 0-0 1-0 28 42 41
42 NC State (6-0) 10.1 0-0 0-0 2-0 33 49 42
43 Michigan (5-1) 10.1 0-1 1-0 0-0 29 60 45
44 Connecticut (3-2) 10.1 0-2 0-0 1-0 39 53 44
45 Evansville (4-1) 9.9 0-0 0-0 1-1 37 81 43
46 Providence (6-1) 9.7 1-1 0-0 1-0 43 97 46 BIG EAST
47 Iona (4-2) 9.6 0-1 0-0 0-1 41 93 47
48 Oregon (4-2) 9.4 0-0 0-2 1-0 38 60 53
49 Kansas St (3-3) 9.3 0-1 1-0 0-2 18 56 48
50 Minnesota (4-2) 9.3 0-1 0-0 1-1 38 55 49
I have some problem with Providence and Butler with one loss being rated where they are. However these are supposed to be PREDICTIVE

[Bill Marsh]

the thing that is dangerous about using the ordinal ranks is that it doesn't match up with what the projected RPI's are at all...
Butler 23-8 projects to 23.1 RPI
VIllanova 23-8 projects to 26.9 RPI
Xavier 21-10 projects to 27.4 RPI
Providence 20-11 projects to 36.0 RPI
Georgetown 17-12 projects to 47.0 RPI
Seton Hall 19-11 projects to 47.3 RPI
St John's 17-13 projects to 73.8 RPI
Creighton 18-13 projects to 81.7 RPI
Marquette 14-16 projects to 116.8 RPI
DePaul 10-19 projects to 188.6 RPI(note 2 diamond-head games not counted).

Also have to remember this is just thru the regular season. With those projected RPI's, Georgetown and Seton Hall would be extremely on the bubble needing wins in the 1st rd of the BET to secure a bid. Especially Georgetown quite frankly wth only 17 wins and already 12 losses. I would say especially with Providence 20-12 with a mid to upper 40's RPI would be on the bubble- so that may be a play in game.

Also, this is assuming that the top teams would be only 12-6 in conference play. There will be a bit more seperation than that one would think. Frankly we should hope there is more seperation, having top 2 teams only at 23.1 and 26.9 is not good(would be like 6 or 7 seeds).

Of course it's only through the regular season. We'll have to follow the conference tournaments to get the final results that the selection committee will use, but it's the best we have for now. There's obviously a degree of uncertainty in all of this because after all it's only a projection. However, it's far better than the RPI ratings that are published at this time of year.

Steve, it's the projected RPI's that seem dangerous to me because they are the average of thousands of simulations. The result is no one projecting at some spots and a bunch of teams clustered at others, which obviously can't happen in the real world. The ordinal rankings sort that out. As I said, these are projections and therefore just guesstimates. I prefer the ordinal rankings. You can have the projections, but none of the are real, so nothing to get too excited about.

Much too early to get into whose on the bubble. Relative to where everyone else is right now, Georgetown and Seton Hall are both in a reasonably strong position, which is great news for both teams.

With an ordinal ranking of 32 and a projected RPI of 36, I have no idea where you're getting a mid to high 40's RPI for Providence. And if you can tel me in December who's going to be in a play in game and predict it accurately, then I want to place my stock portfolio with you. Uh . . . but I think I won't.

Except for Villanova, I really don't expect there to be a lot of separation in the conference this year. Almost everyone else is rebuilding, so there will be a lot of evenly matched teams, inconsistent play, and unexpected results. The conference doesn't need to hope for separation to get its best teams highly ranked. They're getting what's even better - a lot of big wins over highly rated teams and few bad losses.

[Bill Marsh]

I do not know how much I trust PREDICTIVE RANKINGS but here they are for the top 50 teams in the NCAA Division 1
Please note that 23 of 25 of the top 25 teams are P5 conference schools. The two exceptions are Villanova and Wichita.

PREDICTIVE RANKINGS -- TOP 50 DECEMBER 2, 2014

NCAA College Basketball Predictive Rankings & RatingsRank Rating v 1-25 v 26-50 v 51-100 High Low Last
1 Kentucky (7-0) 27.1 1-0 1-0 1-0 1 3 1
2 Duke (7-0) 25.3 1-0 1-0 0-0 1 2 2
3 Wisconsin (7-0) 22.5 1-0 1-0 2-0 2 6 3
4 Louisville (5-0) 21.9 0-0 1-0 0-0 3 5 4
5 Gonzaga (6-0) 21.6 0-0 1-0 2-0 3 12 5
6 Texas (6-0) 20.0 1-0 2-0 0-0 6 10 6
7 N Carolina (5-1) 20.0 0-0 2-1 2-0 6 11 7
8 Ohio State (5-0) 18.9 0-0 0-0 1-0 6 11 8
9 Arizona (6-0) 18.0 1-0 1-0 1-0 1 9 9
10 Illinois (6-0) 17.4 1-0 0-0 0-0 10 42 10
11 Utah (5-1) 17.0 0-1 0-0 0-0 11 37 11
12 Kansas (5-1) 17.0 1-1 0-0 2-0 4 18 12
13 Villanova (6-0) 16.7 0-0 2-0 0-0 8 21 13 BIG EAST
14 Virginia (7-0) 16.6 0-0 0-0 1-0 10 16 14
15 Wichita St (4-0) 16.3 0-0 0-0 3-0 11 17 15
16 Michigan St (5-2) 15.6 0-2 0-0 1-0 14 30 16
17 Arkansas (6-0) 15.3 0-0 2-0 0-0 13 29 17
18 San Diego St (5-1) 15.1 1-1 1-0 1-0 17 27 18
19 W Virginia (7-0) 14.8 0-0 1-0 0-0 19 58 19
20 Iowa State (3-1) 14.6 0-0 0-1 2-0 12 20 20
21 Oklahoma (4-2) 14.1 0-1 2-0 0-1 19 30 21
22 Iowa (5-2) 13.7 0-2 0-0 0-0 10 25 22
23 Syracuse (5-1) 13.6 1-0 0-1 0-0 20 35 23
24 Baylor (6-1) 13.6 0-1 0-0 2-0 24 40 25
25 Notre Dame (6-1) 13.5 0-0 0-1 1-0 23 69 24
26 Maryland (7-0) 13.3 1-0 0-0 1-0 15 26 26
27 Florida (3-3) 12.9 0-1 0-2 0-0 7 29 27
28 BYU (5-2) 12.8 0-1 0-1 2-0 26 36 28
29 VCU (4-2) 12.8 0-1 1-0 1-1 14 31 30
30 Miami (FL) (7-0) 12.8 0-0 1-0 0-0 20 82 29
31 Butler (5-1) 12.7 1-1 1-0 0-0 29 78 31 BIG EAST
32 Purdue (5-1) 12.2 0-0 1-1 0-0 32 53 32
33 Xavier (5-2) 12.1 0-0 0-0 1-2 20 66 33 BIG EAST
34 California (5-1) 11.7 1-1 0-0 0-0 31 58 34
35 S Methodist (4-3) 11.4 0-2 0-0 1-1 15 36 35
36 Oklahoma St (6-0) 11.3 0-0 0-0 1-0 32 43 36
37 Stanford (4-2) 11.1 0-1 0-0 1-0 24 56 37
38 N Iowa (7-0) 10.6 0-0 0-0 1-0 37 57 38
39 Georgetown (4-2) 10.5 0-1 1-1 0-0 31 51 39 BIG EAST
40 Texas A&M (4-1) 10.5 0-0 0-0 0-1 31 54 40
41 UCLA (5-2) 10.3 0-2 0-0 1-0 28 42 41
42 NC State (6-0) 10.1 0-0 0-0 2-0 33 49 42
43 Michigan (5-1) 10.1 0-1 1-0 0-0 29 60 45
44 Connecticut (3-2) 10.1 0-2 0-0 1-0 39 53 44
45 Evansville (4-1) 9.9 0-0 0-0 1-1 37 81 43
46 Providence (6-1) 9.7 1-1 0-0 1-0 43 97 46 BIG EAST
47 Iona (4-2) 9.6 0-1 0-0 0-1 41 93 47
48 Oregon (4-2) 9.4 0-0 0-2 1-0 38 60 53
49 Kansas St (3-3) 9.3 0-1 1-0 0-2 18 56 48
50 Minnesota (4-2) 9.3 0-1 0-0 1-1 38 55 49
I have some problem with Providence and Butler with one loss being rated where they are. However these are supposed to be PREDICTIVE

Thanks for highlighting the BE schools. Makes it easier to read.

[stever20]

the thing that is dangerous about using the ordinal ranks is that it doesn't match up with what the projected RPI's are at all...
Butler 23-8 projects to 23.1 RPI
VIllanova 23-8 projects to 26.9 RPI
Xavier 21-10 projects to 27.4 RPI
Providence 20-11 projects to 36.0 RPI
Georgetown 17-12 projects to 47.0 RPI
Seton Hall 19-11 projects to 47.3 RPI
St John's 17-13 projects to 73.8 RPI
Creighton 18-13 projects to 81.7 RPI
Marquette 14-16 projects to 116.8 RPI
DePaul 10-19 projects to 188.6 RPI(note 2 diamond-head games not counted).

Also have to remember this is just thru the regular season. With those projected RPI's, Georgetown and Seton Hall would be extremely on the bubble needing wins in the 1st rd of the BET to secure a bid. Especially Georgetown quite frankly wth only 17 wins and already 12 losses. I would say especially with Providence 20-12 with a mid to upper 40's RPI would be on the bubble- so that may be a play in game.

Also, this is assuming that the top teams would be only 12-6 in conference play. There will be a bit more seperation than that one would think. Frankly we should hope there is more seperation, having top 2 teams only at 23.1 and 26.9 is not good(would be like 6 or 7 seeds).

Of course it's only through the regular season. We'll have to follow the conference tournaments to get the final results that the selection committee will use, but it's the best we have for now. There's obviously a degree of uncertainty in all of this because after all it's only a projection. However, it's far better than the RPI ratings that are published at this time of year.

Steve, it's the projected RPI's that seem dangerous to me because they are the average of thousands of simulations. The result is no one projecting at some spots and a bunch of teams clustered at others, which obviously can't happen in the real world. The ordinal rankings sort that out. As I said, these are projections and therefore just guesstimates. I prefer the ordinal rankings. You can have the projections, but none of the are real, so nothing to get too excited about.

Much too early to get into whose on the bubble. Relative to where everyone else is right now, Georgetown and Seton Hall are both in a reasonably strong position, which is great news for both teams.

With an ordinal ranking of 32 and a projected RPI of 36, I have no idea where you're getting a mid to high 40's RPI for Providence. And if you can tel me in December who's going to be in a play in game and predict it accurately, then I want to place my stock portfolio with you. Uh . . . but I think I won't.

Except for Villanova, I really don't expect there to be a lot of separation in the conference this year. Almost everyone else is rebuilding, so there will be a lot of evenly matched teams, inconsistent play, and unexpected results. The conference doesn't need to hope for separation to get its best teams highly ranked. They're getting what's even better - a lot of big wins over highly rated teams and few bad losses.

If Georgetown's final record is 17-12, they are on the bubble. Clearly. If Seton Hall is 19-11 they are clearly on the bubble. Even PC with a 20-11 record is on the bubble with a loss. I'd hardly call ANY of those 3 teams as being in a strong position given the projection.

Also- let's use the Ken Pom projections and see how different they are using the projected RPI from RPI forecast
Villanova 26-5 11.4
Georgetown 18-11 36.3
Butler 20-11 48.1
Providence 20-11 36.0 RPI
St John's 18-12 60.3
Xavier 19-12 44.9
Creighton 19-12 68.1
Seton Hall 18-12 59.4
Marquette 14-16 116.8
DePaul 10-19 188.6(plus 2 diamond head teams)

BET would be
Creighton 19-12 68.1 vs DePaul 10-19 188.6
Seton Hall 18-12 59.4 vs Marquette 14-16 116.8

Villanova 26-5 11.4 vs SH/Marq winner
Providence 20-11 36 vs St John's 18-12 60.3
Georgetown 18-11 36.3 vs Creighton/DePaul winner
Butler 20-11 48.1 vs Xavier 19-12 44.9

Butler/Xavier would be a play in game almost certainly. St John's, Seton Hall, and Creighton(to a lesser degree) would have a chance to play themselves in with upset wins in the BET- if Seton Hall and Creighton knocked off Nova/Georgetown respectively they would be in, and if St John's made the final, I think they would be in.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Why do I feel like tracking final RPI and the tourney field on HLOH is like the retail Christmas season. It gets pulled out WAAAAYYYY before I or most normal people are ready to even think about it. Can we play a couple league games before we start figuring out who will be on the bubble and who won't???!!!

At 6-0 I would be willing to lay down a substantial amount of greenbacks that bet that Nova will do better than 17-8 over their next 25 games to finish at the projected 23-8. They've got 7 OOC games left in which they'll be favored in all and 5 vs. teams in which they should be favored by 10+ points. If they win those 5 do you expect them to go only 12-8 over the other 20? I do not. So do we really take much stock into RPI projections?