By the Numbers: Good Wins and Bad Losses

[gmoser1210]

I posted this in another thread, but I wanted to keep this separated from the arguments over what is and isn't a good loss as judged by a team's name/conference/history. In this thread, I'll keep track of our wins over RPI top 50, RPI top 100, and RPI top 150, and our losses to teams outside of the RPI top 100. All RPI rankings will be taken from warrennolan.com. I plan on updating this every Sunday after all games have been played.

Very Good Wins (over RPI Top 50)
Butler over UNC (#12)
Creighton over Oklahoma (#50)
Providence over Yale (#40)

Good Wins (over RPI 51-100)
Butler over Georgetown (#84)
DePaul over Stanford (#77)
Marquette over Georgia Tech (#94)
Seton Hall over Gardner-Webb (#58)
Seton Hall over Illinois State (#61)
Seton Hall over George Washington (#73)
Villanova over VCU (#60)
Villanova over Michigan (#69)
Xavier over Long Beach State (#55)

Wins that might be good (RPI 101-150)
Creighton over North Carolina Central (#114)
Georgetown over Florida (#109)
Providence over Albany (#148)
Saint John's over Minnesota (#131)

Bad Losses (to teams outside of the RPI top 100)
Ole Miss (#137) over Creighton
Lehigh (#186) over DePaul
Nebraska-Omaha (#166) over Marquette

[gmoser1210]

Games this week:
Tuesday, December 2
#184 Northern Illinois at DePaul
#223 Niagara at Saint John's
#224 Mount Saint Mary's at Seton Hall

Wednesday, December 3
Butler at #215 Indiana State
Creighton at #173 Tulsa
Villanova at #130 La Salle

Thursday, December 4
DePaul at #303 Chicago State

Friday, December 5
Providence at #90 Boston College

Saturday, December 6
#91 Northwestern at Butler
#3 Wisconsin at Marquette
Saint John's at #33 Syracuse
#192 Rutgers at Seton Hall
#249 St. Joseph's at Villanova
#25 Alabama at Xavier

Sunday, December 7
Creighton at #83 Nebraska
#309 Milwaukee at Depaul
#182 Towson at Georgetown

[BillikenFriar]

Am I missing the PC over Notre Dame win or is it missing?

[Irishdawg]

Am I missing the PC over Notre Dame win or is it missing?

I believe ND just moved into the RPI top 150 very recently, which is why it isn't listed as a good win right now, though I fully expect by the end of the year it will be.

[gmoser1210]

Notre Dame is currently #188.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Way, way, way too early to use RPI as a measure of good wins and losses. When I see PC over Yale as a better win than Gtwn over Fla or Nova over Michigan, I have seen all I need to see.

[Jet915]

This thread will be relevant in a month. Thanks for doing it though.

[gmoser1210]

Way, way, way too early to use RPI as a measure of good wins and losses.

That's why I said I'm going to update it weekly. For now, the main purpose is to provide interesting information for data-oriented people like me who might like to watch as the RPI uses a larger and larger sample.

[Bill Marsh]

Here's a take on what you set up, using RPI Forecast, which is a better measure at this point in the season IMO:

TOP 50 WINS

Butler over #8 North Carolina
Butler over #50 Georgetown
Creighton over #24 Oklahoma
Villanova over #28 VCU
Villanova over #32 Michigan

51-100 WINS

DePaul over #58 Stanford
Georgetown over #61 Florida
St. John's over #64 Minnesota
Providence over #66 Yale
Providence over #68 Notre Dame
Seton hall over #63 GW
Seton Hall over #90 Illinois State
Xavier over #67 Long Beach State
Xavier over #93 Stephen F Austin

101-150 WINS

Marquette over #104 Georgia Tech
Xavier over #113 San Diego
Creighton over #136 North Carolina Central
Providence over #144 Albany
Seton Hall over #146 Gardner Webb

BAD LOSSES

#178 Nebraska Omaha over Marquette
#213 Lehigh over DePaul

[gmoser1210]

Update after all games completed on 7-December-2014.

Very Good Wins (over RPI Top 50)
Seton Hall over Gardner-Webb (#24)
Villanova over VCU (#26)
Xavier over Alabama (#34)
Butler over UNC (#35)
Creighton over Oklahoma (#38)
Providence over Yale (#42)

Good Wins (over RPI 51-100)
Marquette over Georgia Tech (#57)
DePaul over Stanford (#62)
Seton Hall over George Washington (#64)
Xavier over Long Beach State (#71)
Butler over Georgetown (#72)
Saint John's over Minnesota (#75)
Saint John's over Syracuse (#77)
Butler over Northwestern (#88)
Seton Hall over Illinois State (#95)
Xavier over Stephen F. Austin (#98)
Seton Hall over Rutgers (#100)

Wins that might be good (RPI 101-150)
Villanova over Michigan (#113)
DePaul over Northern Illinois (#119)
Creighton over North Carolina Central (#104)
Creighton over Nebraska (#105)
Georgetown over Florida (#130)

Bad Losses (to teams outside of the RPI top 100)
Nebraska-Omaha (#236) over Marquette
Lehigh (#186) over DePaul
Tulsa (#102) over Creighton