RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby Bluejay » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:30 am

Robin,

Unfortunately, I spent years studying the various RPI sites out there. As a previous member of a mid major conference, our RPI was something that had to monitored regularly. My analysis after years of doing this is that the most accurate RPI site is warrennolan.com. Historically, realtime does a horrible job accurately accounting for neutral site games (it often assigns one team as the home team and the other as a visitor which screws up the computations).

Nolan's site is easy to use, has his own power ratings too and does a great job attempting to reproduce the "Nitty Gritty" sheets given to the NCAA selection committee when they actual pick the field.

In the official RPI rating, Nolan has the BE 4th, behind the ACC (by one one-hundredth of a point) and the Big 12 and Big 10 (by a few thousandths of a point). His power rankings however have the Big East first. Past history has shown that the computer ratings catch up with his power ratings as more game are played.
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby Bill Marsh » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:06 am

Bluejay wrote:Robin,

Unfortunately, I spent years studying the various RPI sites out there. As a previous member of a mid major conference, our RPI was something that had to monitored regularly. My analysis after years of doing this is that the most accurate RPI site is warrennolan.com. Historically, realtime does a horrible job accurately accounting for neutral site games (it often assigns one team as the home team and the other as a visitor which screws up the computations).

Nolan's site is easy to use, has his own power ratings too and does a great job attempting to reproduce the "Nitty Gritty" sheets given to the NCAA selection committee when they actual pick the field.

In the official RPI rating, Nolan has the BE 4th, behind the ACC (by one one-hundredth of a point) and the Big 12 and Big 10 (by a few thousandths of a point). His power rankings however have the Big East first. Past history has shown that the computer ratings catch up with his power ratings as more game are played.


IMO one of the most meaningless things in the world is an RPI in November. It doesn't get much better in December. What I prefer to follow for most of the season is rpiforecast.com. Using probability, it applies Sagarin's current power rating to the rest of the schedule and runs it through 10,000 simulation. It then derives an RPI for the season projection.

That interests me because SOS and all of the other variables become real. Here's how The Big East looked through Tuesday:

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big 10
4. Big East
5. SEC
6. PAC 12
7. West Coast
8. AAC
9. A10
10. Mountain West

BIG EAST

6. Xavier
20. Villanova
23. Providence
33. Seton Hall
54. Georgetown
69. Creighton
80. Butler
109. St. John's
169. Marquette
179. DePaul

Yesterday's results should really shake things up when the site is updated later today.
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby Bill Marsh » Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:30 pm

Here's how things changed overnight on RPI Forecast:

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. PAC 12
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. AAC
10. Missouri Valley

BIG EAST

6. Xavier
17. Villanova
21. Providence
29. Butler
38. Seton Hall
46. Georgetown
64. Creighton
72. St. John's
161. Marquette
218. DePaul

Overall the conference improved but the huge jumps by Butler and St. John's were offset somewhat by the huge drop by DePaul. Lehigh was just a terrible loss - both for DeP and for the league.
Last edited by Bill Marsh on Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby robinreed » Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:35 am

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 3 Conf. SOS Rank: 24

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Teams that made the tournament are in bold
This page updates daily.
Last updated - Thu Nov 27 12:05:24 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 89 From Last WeekUp 89 From Last Week 5 Seton Hall 0-0 3-0 0.7514 24 0.6685
Up 158 From Last WeekUp 158 From Last Week 29 Villanova 0-0 5-0 0.6746 92 0.5661
Up 29 From Last WeekUp 29 From Last Week 42 Providence 0-0 5-0 0.6467 133 0.5289
Down 27 From Last WeekDown 27 From Last Week 61 Georgetown 0-0 4-0 0.6127 194 0.4836
Up 80 From Last WeekUp 80 From Last Week 71 Butler 0-0 4-1 0.5949 116 0.5476
Up 29 From Last WeekUp 29 From Last Week 93 Xavier 0-0 4-0 0.5690 263 0.4253
Up 137 From Last WeekUp 137 From Last Week 126 St. John's 0-0 3-0 0.5312 306 0.3750
Down 4 From Last Week 145 Creighton 0-0 5-0 0.5204 314 0.3606
Down 2 From Last Week 209 Marquette 0-0 2-2 0.4709 168 0.5029
Down 151 From Last WeekDown 151 From Last Week 306 DePaul 0-0 2-1 0.3611 326 0.3276
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby Bill Marsh » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:15 am

Bill Marsh wrote:Here's how things changed overnight on RPI Forecast:

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. PAC 12
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. AAC
10. Missouri Valley

BIG EAST

6. Xavier
17. Villanova
21. Providence
29. Butler
38. Seton Hall
46. Georgetown
64. Creighton
72. St. John's
161. Marquette
218. DePaul

Overall the conference improved but the huge jump by St. John's was offset by the huge drop by DePaul. Lehigh was just a terrible loss - both for DeP and for the league.


In just a day, the Big East went from projecting 4 teams into the tournament like last year to projecting 6. Wow!
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby robinreed » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:58 am

Bill Marsh wrote:
Bill Marsh wrote:Here's how things changed overnight on RPI Forecast:

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. PAC 12
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. AAC
10. Missouri Valley

BIG EAST

6. Xavier
17. Villanova
21. Providence
29. Butler
38. Seton Hall
46. Georgetown
64. Creighton
72. St. John's
161. Marquette
218. DePaul

Overall the conference improved but the huge jump by St. John's was offset by the huge drop by DePaul. Lehigh was just a terrible loss - both for DeP and for the league.


In just a day, the Big East went from projecting 4 teams into the tournament like last year to projecting 6. Wow!


This is shaping up to be one of the best years the new or old Big East has ever had. I don't think any of us expected this but except for Depaul I think there could be as many as 7 teams either in the NCAA or the NIT. We must continue like this in the OOC because to some extent we will kill each other in conference.
It's a great beginning for the season.
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby Bill Marsh » Fri Nov 28, 2014 10:54 am

The Big East keeps moving up! New rankings, including yesterday's results.

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. Big East
3. ACC
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. PAC 12
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. AAC
10. MVC

BIG EAST

6. Xavier
19. Villanova
24. Butler
25. Providence
29. Georgetown
43. Seton Hall
58. Creighton
80. St. John's
142. Marquette
220. DePaul
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby handdownmandown » Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:26 am

That projection for Creighton does not include a matchup with Cincinnati, since that game is not guaranteed to be played.

If CU beats them in the title game and St. John's can pull off the stunner, we might see 8 teams looking at a top 50 projection.
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Re: RPI RANKING: will update each week (if I remember)

Postby redmen9194 » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:32 pm

robinreed wrote:
Bill Marsh wrote:
Bill Marsh wrote:Here's how things changed overnight on RPI Forecast:

CONFERENCES

1. Big 12
2. ACC
3. Big East
4. Big 10
5. SEC
6. PAC 12
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. AAC
10. Missouri Valley

BIG EAST

6. Xavier
17. Villanova
21. Providence
29. Butler
38. Seton Hall
46. Georgetown
64. Creighton
72. St. John's
161. Marquette
218. DePaul

Overall the conference improved but the huge jump by St. John's was offset by the huge drop by DePaul. Lehigh was just a terrible loss - both for DeP and for the league.


In just a day, the Big East went from projecting 4 teams into the tournament like last year to projecting 6. Wow!


This is shaping up to be one of the best years the new or old Big East has ever had. I don't think any of us expected this but except for Depaul I think there could be as many as 7 teams either in the NCAA or the NIT. We must continue like this in the OOC because to some extent we will kill each other in conference.
It's a great beginning for the season.


In 1991 we got 7 of 9 in the tourney. In 2011 we got 11 of 16. In 1985 we had 3 final four teams. We have a good start, but lets not get ahead of ourselves here.
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Re: RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RPI RANKINGS

Postby robinreed » Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:38 pm

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 12

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Teams that made the tournament are in bold
This page updates daily.
Last updated - Fri Nov 28 13:14:58 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 90 From Last WeekUp 90 From Last Week 4 Seton Hall 0-0 3-0 0.7514 22 0.6685
Up 161 From Last WeekUp 161 From Last Week 26 Villanova 0-0 5-0 0.6737 92 0.5650
Up 33 From Last WeekUp 33 From Last Week 38 Providence 0-0 5-0 0.6475 132 0.5301
Up 81 From Last WeekUp 81 From Last Week 41 Xavier 0-0 5-0 0.6452 135 0.5269
Down 13 From Last WeekDown 13 From Last Week 47 Georgetown 0-0 4-0 0.6351 150 0.5134
Up 93 From Last WeekUp 93 From Last Week 58 Butler 0-0 4-1 0.6253 80 0.5881
Up 109 From Last WeekUp 109 From Last Week 98 Marquette 0-0 3-2 0.5681 81 0.5829
Up 25 From Last WeekUp 25 From Last Week 116 Creighton 0-0 5-0 0.5412 304 0.3883
Up 142 From Last WeekUp 142 From Last Week 121 St. John's 0-0 3-0 0.5340 309 0.3787
Down 161 From Last WeekDown 161 From Last Week 316 DePaul 0-0 2-1 0.3562 330 0.3211

This was a bad day for the Big East. Ole Miss beat Creighton, Mich St. beat Marquette, Gonzaga beat SJU, UTEP beat X (completely unexpected by this Muskie fan) and in the league Butler pulled a surprise win over G-town. Perhaps we were flying too high early in the season however I remain confident this year will exceed last season.
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