4 x 16

[billyjack]

P.S. Funny how all of our friends from CSNBBS are finding their way over here.

That's cool... TerryD, Frank, and Bearcat, and others, are good, sensible posters.

[Xudash]

I'm not hoping for 4 x 16. I just see the logic in it.

I certainly care mostly about the NCAA Tournament as it presently exists. There are too many good hoops schools, including AAC schools (including UC) that deserve further participation in that key tournament as it exists now.

Nonetheless, whether it becomes 4 x 16 or something else, I reasonably suspect that conference realignment isn't finished yet, and anyone who has had any experience in negotiations and with attorneys can tell you that CONTRACTS are not and are never IRONCLAD. Exit/termination provisions exist in virtually every material long-term agreement, simply because things can materially change. And even if such provisions still require some maneuvering to effect a break, that is why two (or more) parties will come to the table if it serves their interests to break it.

BTW, as for Notre Dame and the ACC versus the B1G, I'll go with what I've heard and others can go with what they've heard or think. As I noted on that topic, there are two key groups to consider when it comes to ND: the alumni (who will fiercely fight for independence) and the administration.

[NJRedman]

P.S. Funny how all of our friends from CSNBBS are finding their way over here.

That's cool... TerryD, Frank, and Bearcat, and others, are good, sensible posters.

Well Frank is a Blue Demon.

[Bill Marsh]

I'm not hoping for 4 x 16. I just see the logic in it.

I certainly care mostly about the NCAA Tournament as it presently exists. There are too many good hoops schools, including AAC schools (including UC) that deserve further participation in that key tournament as it exists now.

Nonetheless, whether it becomes 4 x 16 or something else, I reasonably suspect that conference realignment isn't finished yet, and anyone who has had any experience in negotiations and with attorneys can tell you that CONTRACTS are not and are never IRONCLAD. Exit/termination provisions exist in virtually every material long-term agreement, simply because things can materially change. And even if such provisions still require some maneuvering to effect a break, that is why two (or more) parties will come to the table if it serves their interests to break it.

BTW, as for Notre Dame and the ACC versus the B1G, I'll go with what I've heard and others can go with what they've heard or think. As I noted on that topic, there are two key groups to consider when it comes to ND: the alumni (who will fiercely fight for independence) and the administration.

Dash, as a practical matter I don't see how they logistically get to 4 conferences of 16 even if they want to. Let's start with the PAC-12 because they have the farthest to go.

The only way for the PAC-12 to get to 16 is to raid the Big XII because there is no one else close enough who is viable except BYU and Boise, neither of whom they want any part of. Just for the same of discussion, let's say that they take the 4 Texas schools - Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU. That means that the Big XII is dead and the 4th conference is the ACC.

So, we need 5 more schools to get the other 3 to 16. Let's assume that the SEC take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Where does the Big Ten go? They care about academics, so Kansas would be next on their list, but do they care about the Kansas market? Or Kansas football? They could have had Missouri, which offers a bigger market, but they walked away from that opportunity.

Even if they took Kansas, whos's their other option? The only other school with academics remotely close to what the Big Ten is looking for is UConn, the east Coast's mirror image of Kansas. A basketball school with a similar market to Kansas. The good news is that they solidify the big ten's grip on theNY market. The bad news is that their football is terrible. This is all about football.

The other option is for the Big Ten to raid the ACC. But doesn't that defeat the purpose of this whole thing? You now have only 3 strong conferences with a wounded ACC trying to piece things together from the remnants.

Even if the Big ten takesKansas and UConn, who's left for the ACC. I'm assuming that Notre Dame stays with the ACC. But they still need #16. Like the big ten and the PAC-12 and unlike the SEC, the ACC cares about academics. So, I don't see them taking West Virginia, which could actually find themselves in the SEC instead of OK State. So, where does the ACC turn Cincinnati? I don't see that. ECU? No way. UCF? USF? Possible but not likely.

Even if you resolve the question of how the final conference gets to 16, you're still left with those who are excluded. BYU is a past national champion and brings 60,000 fans into their stadium for every game every year. They meet every criterion Division IV could establish. How are they denied a path to a championship? K State and Iowa State both averag around 50,000 in attendance. How are they left out? Either West Virginia or OK state is likely left out in this scenario. Same question for either of them.

And then, there is the question that I avoided in contriving this. The Big ten doesn't want Kansas or UConn. They want Texas + some other major market or some other football power. That's been their strategy moving forward. Is the Big ten going to take something less than what they want just to satisfy some neat 4 x 16 formula? I don't think so.

If The Big Ten were successful in wooing Texas, who would the PAC-12 want? Would they stretch their conference half way across the country to add left overs?

Bottom line for me is that the Big 3 need incentives to take on new members. I don't see enough of that out there to satisfy the Big Ten and the ACC. (The SEC will take anyone as long as they can fill a football stadium. ECU still has hope. LOL) And you still need enough other viable candidates for a 4th conference.

What am I missing? Help me out with the logistics. Maybe in 15-20 years UConn is AAU and the B1G will want them. Maybe Cincy has more appeal than I realize. Maybe the ACC would abandon their historic objections to West Virginia membership and would welcome a university that offers a major in "how to build a still: moonshine 101".

[Michael in Raleigh]

I'm not hoping for 4 x 16. I just see the logic in it.

I certainly care mostly about the NCAA Tournament as it presently exists. There are too many good hoops schools, including AAC schools (including UC) that deserve further participation in that key tournament as it exists now.

Nonetheless, whether it becomes 4 x 16 or something else, I reasonably suspect that conference realignment isn't finished yet, and anyone who has had any experience in negotiations and with attorneys can tell you that CONTRACTS are not and are never IRONCLAD. Exit/termination provisions exist in virtually every material long-term agreement, simply because things can materially change. And even if such provisions still require some maneuvering to effect a break, that is why two (or more) parties will come to the table if it serves their interests to break it.

BTW, as for Notre Dame and the ACC versus the B1G, I'll go with what I've heard and others can go with what they've heard or think. As I noted on that topic, there are two key groups to consider when it comes to ND: the alumni (who will fiercely fight for independence) and the administration.

Dash, as a practical matter I don't see how they logistically get to 4 conferences of 16 even if they want to. Let's start with the PAC-12 because they have the farthest to go.

The only way for the PAC-12 to get to 16 is to raid the Big XII because there is no one else close enough who is viable except BYU and Boise, neither of whom they want any part of. Just for the same of discussion, let's say that they take the 4 Texas schools - Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU. That means that the Big XII is dead and the 4th conference is the ACC.

So, we need 5 more schools to get the other 3 to 16. Let's assume that the SEC take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Where does the Big Ten go? They care about academics, so Kansas would be next on their list, but do they care about the Kansas market? Or Kansas football? They could have had Missouri, which offers a bigger market, but they walked away from that opportunity.

Even if they took Kansas, whos's their other option? The only other school with academics remotely close to what the Big Ten is looking for is UConn, the east Coast's mirror image of Kansas. A basketball school with a similar market to Kansas. The good news is that they solidify the big ten's grip on theNY market. The bad news is that their football is terrible. This is all about football.

The other option is for the Big Ten to raid the ACC. But doesn't that defeat the purpose of this whole thing? You now have only 3 strong conferences with a wounded ACC trying to piece things together from the remnants.

Even if the Big ten takesKansas and UConn, who's left for the ACC. I'm assuming that Notre Dame stays with the ACC. But they still need #16. Like the big ten and the PAC-12 and unlike the SEC, the ACC cares about academics. So, I don't see them taking West Virginia, which could actually find themselves in the SEC instead of OK State. So, where does the ACC turn Cincinnati? I don't see that. ECU? No way. UCF? USF? Possible but not likely.

Even if you resolve the question of how the final conference gets to 16, you're still left with those who are excluded. BYU is a past national champion and brings 60,000 fans into their stadium for every game every year. They meet every criterion Division IV could establish. How are they denied a path to a championship? K State and Iowa State both averag around 50,000 in attendance. How are they left out? Either West Virginia or OK state is likely left out in this scenario. Same question for either of them.

And then, there is the question that I avoided in contriving this. The Big ten doesn't want Kansas or UConn. They want Texas + some other major market or some other football power. That's been their strategy moving forward. Is the Big ten going to take something less than what they want just to satisfy some neat 4 x 16 formula? I don't think so.

If The Big Ten were successful in wooing Texas, who would the PAC-12 want? Would they stretch their conference half way across the country to add left overs?

Bottom line for me is that the Big 3 need incentives to take on new members. I don't see enough of that out there to satisfy the Big Ten and the Big XII. (The SEC will take anyone as long as they can fill a football stadium. ECU still has hope. LOL) And you still need enough other viable candidates for a 4th conference.

What am I missing? Help me out with the logistics. Maybe in 15-20 years UConn is AAU and the B1G will want them. Maybe Cincy has more appeal than I realize. Maybe the ACC would abandon their historic objections to West Virginia membership and would welcome a university that offers a major in "how to build a still: moonshine 101".

Bill, who do you think you are being making so much sense instead of knee-jerk reacting that, "there's gonna be a 4X16 because IT JUST MAKES SENSE!!!"

Actually, you were pretty spot-on. When the Pac-12 elected not to expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Ok. State when it had the opportunity in the fall of 2012, I knew that they had zero interest in expanding without the U. of Texas. Forget Boise State & MWC schools or BYU (non-starter due to desire for only secular institutions). They turned down one of the premier football names of all with OU.

Another point: who says that the SEC would be okay with a 4X16 format, where four conference champs would go to the playoffs? They'll almost certainly veto that idea. They'd say, as they do now, that they'll often have two of the four best teams in their conference. If one of the four other major conferences aren't among the four best, tough. These leagues will work together on policies they all agree on. Clearly they're already doing that. But for championship formats for football, for membership makeup, and many other matters, they are in it for themselves.

[cu blujs]

I don't know, 4 x 16 just seems to work against the laws of nature. 14 x 6 is 64, when everyone knows that the answer to life the universe and everything is 42.

[Xudash]

I'm not hoping for 4 x 16. I just see the logic in it.

I certainly care mostly about the NCAA Tournament as it presently exists. There are too many good hoops schools, including AAC schools (including UC) that deserve further participation in that key tournament as it exists now.

Nonetheless, whether it becomes 4 x 16 or something else, I reasonably suspect that conference realignment isn't finished yet, and anyone who has had any experience in negotiations and with attorneys can tell you that CONTRACTS are not and are never IRONCLAD. Exit/termination provisions exist in virtually every material long-term agreement, simply because things can materially change. And even if such provisions still require some maneuvering to effect a break, that is why two (or more) parties will come to the table if it serves their interests to break it.

BTW, as for Notre Dame and the ACC versus the B1G, I'll go with what I've heard and others can go with what they've heard or think. As I noted on that topic, there are two key groups to consider when it comes to ND: the alumni (who will fiercely fight for independence) and the administration.

Dash, as a practical matter I don't see how they logistically get to 4 conferences of 16 even if they want to. Let's start with the PAC-12 because they have the farthest to go.

The only way for the PAC-12 to get to 16 is to raid the Big XII because there is no one else close enough who is viable except BYU and Boise, neither of whom they want any part of. Just for the same of discussion, let's say that they take the 4 Texas schools - Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU. That means that the Big XII is dead and the 4th conference is the ACC.

So, we need 5 more schools to get the other 3 to 16. Let's assume that the SEC take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Where does the Big Ten go? They care about academics, so Kansas would be next on their list, but do they care about the Kansas market? Or Kansas football? They could have had Missouri, which offers a bigger market, but they walked away from that opportunity.

Even if they took Kansas, whos's their other option? The only other school with academics remotely close to what the Big Ten is looking for is UConn, the east Coast's mirror image of Kansas. A basketball school with a similar market to Kansas. The good news is that they solidify the big ten's grip on theNY market. The bad news is that their football is terrible. This is all about football.

The other option is for the Big Ten to raid the ACC. But doesn't that defeat the purpose of this whole thing? You now have only 3 strong conferences with a wounded ACC trying to piece things together from the remnants.

Even if the Big ten takesKansas and UConn, who's left for the ACC. I'm assuming that Notre Dame stays with the ACC. But they still need #16. Like the big ten and the PAC-12 and unlike the SEC, the ACC cares about academics. So, I don't see them taking West Virginia, which could actually find themselves in the SEC instead of OK State. So, where does the ACC turn Cincinnati? I don't see that. ECU? No way. UCF? USF? Possible but not likely.

Even if you resolve the question of how the final conference gets to 16, you're still left with those who are excluded. BYU is a past national champion and brings 60,000 fans into their stadium for every game every year. They meet every criterion Division IV could establish. How are they denied a path to a championship? K State and Iowa State both averag around 50,000 in attendance. How are they left out? Either West Virginia or OK state is likely left out in this scenario. Same question for either of them.

And then, there is the question that I avoided in contriving this. The Big ten doesn't want Kansas or UConn. They want Texas + some other major market or some other football power. That's been their strategy moving forward. Is the Big ten going to take something less than what they want just to satisfy some neat 4 x 16 formula? I don't think so.

If The Big Ten were successful in wooing Texas, who would the PAC-12 want? Would they stretch their conference half way across the country to add left overs?

Bottom line for me is that the Big 3 need incentives to take on new members. I don't see enough of that out there to satisfy the Big Ten and the Big XII. (The SEC will take anyone as long as they can fill a football stadium. ECU still has hope. LOL) And you still need enough other viable candidates for a 4th conference.

What am I missing? Help me out with the logistics. Maybe in 15-20 years UConn is AAU and the B1G will want them. Maybe Cincy has more appeal than I realize. Maybe the ACC would abandon their historic objections to West Virginia membership and would welcome a university that offers a major in "how to build a still: moonshine 101".

Bill,

I don't believe you're missing anything. I agree with your assessment, and I believe the complexity embedded within it will make any move to this format difficult. Having noted that, let's take a quick counter look at your analysis - casual comments, not what I adamantly believe will happen:

The only way for the PAC-12 to get to 16 is to raid the Big XII because there is no one else close enough who is viable except BYU and Boise, neither of whom they want any part of. Just for the same of discussion, let's say that they take the 4 Texas schools - Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU. That means that the Big XII is dead and the 4th conference is the ACC. - - Texas appears to be the lynchpin for any additional movement. Texas and some combination of Big XII schools to the PAC most likely is the only way the 4 x 16 format can get teed up. I agree with you completely on this fundamental point.

With respect to your comments about the B1G and its desired targets, I believe the primary criteria for the B1G are: [1] Impact on their Fox JV television deal, [2] AAU Membership, and [3] Geography (i.e. can they find a contiguous school for footprint purposes). Don't think in terms of Kansas; think in terms of UVA and UNC, as possible examples. The B1G will solve for population centers (television) and academics (AAU / flagship land grant institutions).

With respect to some of your other examples of combinations, I believe we're already looking at a club deal here - I know you hate this idea, because you rightfully want to see the BEST teams have a shot based on their excellence and not a crest they wear on their blazers. There are presently 65 teams in the Big 5 mix, including Notre Dame. If you're already on the inside, even if you are BC or Wake Forest or Indiana or Washington State, etc., etc., you're on the inside; you're alongside people with whom you've worked and associated for a long, long time. In this regard, it gets back to your point - and Michael's point - about Texas and the PAC being the pivot point for this format to have a prayer. Well, IMHO anyway. For that matter, assuming ND is forced to join one of these 4 super-conferences, a program like BC or Wake will get knocked out.

The other option is for the Big Ten to raid the ACC. But doesn't that defeat the purpose of this whole thing? You now have only 3 strong conferences with a wounded ACC trying to piece things together from the remnants. - - Gutting the ACC and the Big XII doesn't defeat the purpose of the 4 x16, because the remnants of those conferences would ban together - in a rather curious footprint - to form the 4th conference. That conference will still have FSU and Miami as part of it, assuming Florida, UGA and Alabama have enough say in the matter (they do; and that is about recruiting backyards, etc.). On this matter, I've had some interesting conversations with Gator Bowl Committee members who also are prominent alumni of their schools. At the end of the day, they know a little more than what everyone else knows about any of this stuff, but they absolutely know their schools have every intention of protecting their existing fertile recruiting areas; they know their schools have no intention of or reason for elevating their competitors.

Even if you resolve the question of how the final conference gets to 16, you're still left with those who are excluded. BYU is a past national champion and brings 60,000 fans into their stadium for every game every year. They meet every criterion Division IV could establish. How are they denied a path to a championship? K State and Iowa State both averag around 50,000 in attendance. How are they left out? Either West Virginia or OK state is likely left out in this scenario. Same question for either of them. - - As noted earlier, it isn't right for BYU. It isn't right for UCONN, especially given its rather recent program investments. It isn't right for UC, especially given that the bulldozers are on site there now as they pump $80 million into Nippert. Otherwise, those other existing Big XII members will land on their feet, but they'll be landing on them in Winston-Salem, Raleigh, Miami, etc. over the course of a season.

Is the Big ten going to take something less than what they want just to satisfy some neat 4 x 16 formula? I don't think so. - - IMO, the B1G will only move forward on this if those 3 criteria above are satisfied.


Michael otherwise is spot-on about the PAC/Texas maneuver; that was all about securing Texas first and foremost; nothing else was going to happen without that happening. At that time, nothing ended up happening. Beyond that, Slive is one voice out of at least two as-strong voices, with a 4th coming about, too, were all this to happen. Even though there is no indication at present that the SEC's dominance is going to wither away, they'll set this thing up for the long-term if they move forward with it, which means they'll assume things will ebb and flow between these mega conferences. The best way to make sure you make it into the final 4 is to first win your division and then win your conference championship, right? In other words, if they do this thing, Slive takes the SEC into it knowing the circumstances.

I look at it this way:

1. I just don't believe they're finished monkeying around with football yet; I believe the Big3 are still looking for more revenue from television, which means that realignment isn't over yet;

2. Had you told me a decade ago that West Virginia would have been in the same conference as Baylor, I would have looked at you funnily.

The more money they can make via certain combinations, the less they'll care about geography - get a slightly larger charter and stock it with tutors, etc. so that the student-athlete can knock out more homework at a comfortable cruising altitude of 32,000 feet. On that note, it should be clear to anyone that the course for getting to a 4 x 16 format is full of landmines. Yet it also should be clear that Texas is the most logical primary agent for change; Texas and the PAC, actually.

In the meantime, I'm hoping for great things for the Big East, Xavier, fellow BE members, Fox, our tournament at MSG and my liver over the long term.

[Bill Marsh]

Dash,

Let"follow through on your scenario.

1. 4 schools from the Big XII join the PAC-12. For the sake of discussion, I'll assume Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State because they were the 4 who were supposedly poised to join several years ago before the plug was pulled at the 11th hour.

2. Let's assume that the B1G takes UVA and UNC as has been rumored and as you've suggested.

3. Let's assume that the SEC expands into new territory with VA Tech and NC State as some have suggested they might.

Let's see what that leaves as the 4th 16 school conference:

Boston College
Syracuse
Pitt
West Virginia
Louisville
Notre Dame
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
Baylor
Miami
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Duke
Wake Forest

I know you've said that one of those 17 gets dropped from the list, but regardless of who it is, that's more than a curious footprint.it's hard to see why this group of schools would self-select each other.

Being in a conference is about more than being in a quadrant for a playoff. It's not like setting up one of the regions for the NCAA basketball tournament. In a conference, the members have to want to be partners. They have to negotiate TV deals together, which means that markets would matter in whom they choose as partners. They have to run competition in sports other than football.

Other than football, I don't see why these schools would want to join together in a common effort.they can't be forced into a conference. I could see them entering into smaller groupings, continuing with partners with whom they already have working relationships, to rebuild into new conferences before I can see them coming together in this grouping. The remaining ACC schools, for example, could simply remain together as a group of 11 and add West Virginia to get to 12. I could also see the 5 schools left from the Big XII simply adding 5 new members, such as BYU, Boise, UCF, USF, and Memphis. Then we'd be right back where we started

I also don't see how the 4x16 avoids legal or Confressional action for their exclusion of perfectly qualified other schools.

[BEhomer]

I think ppl throw this idea of 4X16 because it creates a nice playoff format of 4 or 8 teams.

SEC and mike slive has no interest in settling for same number of seeds in the postseason tourney as B1G/PAC/B12/ACC. and why should they? after all this is all about money and greed.

SEC was upset this past season that they didn't have two SEC teams playing in the championship bowl. they will likely have a good argument in most years. so, while it sounds neat for some sports writers to say field of 64, money grabbing and back stabbing will always muddy the football post season.

[Bill Marsh]

Just to add some numbers to the discussion, here's a list of candidates for a 4th conference, rank ordered by last year's home football attendance, after Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OK State, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech have been removed for new homes in the big 3. Stadium capacity is indicated in parentheses.

82,000 (81,500) - Clemson
80,800 (80,800)- Notre Dame
75,400 (82,300) - Florida State
61,200 (64,470) - BYU
55,400 (58,800/61,000 in 2015) - Iowa State
53,800 (74,918) - Miami
52,914 (55,000) - Louisville
52,910 (60,000) - West Virginia
52,887 (50,000) - Kansas State
49,700 (65,050) - Pitt
49,100 (55,000) - Georgia Tech
45,900 (50,000/45,000 in 2014) - Baylor
44,000 (50,000) - East Carolina
43,600 (45,000) - TCU
42,100 (45,323) - Central Florida
38,300 (49,262) - Syracuse
37,900 (50,071) - Kansas
36,900 (41,031) - Fresno State
34,700 (65,000)- South Florida
34,400 (36,387) - Boise State
33,200 (70,561) - San Diego State
33,000 (44,500) - Boston College
31,800 (35,000/approx 40,000 in 2015) - Cincinnati
30,900 (40,000) - UConn
28,500 (62,380) - Memphis
28,414 (51,500) - UTEP
28,375 (31,500) - Wake Forest
26,100 (33,941) - Duke