Player Rankings Can Be a Crapshoot

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I lost faith in Scout.com’s player ratings a long time ago.


Dayton’s HS Class of 2004 Recruit Ratings – Scout.com: http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p= ... atingValue

2-Star Brian Roberts is rated ‘dead last’ on Scout.com’s ratings of 2004 prospects in which Dayton showed interest.


Dayton’s HS Class of 2008 Recruit Ratings – Scout.com: http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p= ... atingValue

2-Star Chris Johnson is rated near the bottom of Scout.com’s ratings of 2008 prospects in which Dayton showed interest.


In 2013-14, Brian Roberts (New Orleans Pelicans) and Chris Johnson (Boston Celtics) both enjoyed fine seasons.

Player rankings can be a crapshoot.

[flyerlax06]

Scout.com's is arguably the worst of the major ones.

[hoyahooligan]

Stupid argument.

The number of 5 star recruits that succeed and 4 star recruits that succeed is much higher than the 3 Star or 2 star players that succeed. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen, just that for every Roberts or McDermott there are hundreds if not thousands who no one has ever heard of and never will.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

As everyone already knows, the Butler Bulldogs played in the NCAA Tournament National Championship games in 2010 and 2011: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butler_Bul ... basketball , beating a very impressive list of teams along the way.


Here’s a look at Butler’s relevant recruiting classes:

Butler’s HS Class of 2006: (4 recruits; all Zero-Stars; seniors in 2010): https://rivals.yahoo.com/basketballrecr ... Butler-165

Butler’s HS Class of 2007: (4 recruits; a 4-Star, a 3-Star and two 2-Stars; juniors in 2010): https://rivals.yahoo.com/basketballrecr ... Butler-165

Butler’s HS Class of 2008: (5 recruits; three 3-Stars and two 2-Stars; sophomores in 2010): https://rivals.yahoo.com/basketballrecr ... Butler-165

Butler’s HS Class of 2009: (1 recruit; a 3-Star; freshman in 2010): https://rivals.yahoo.com/basketballrecr ... Butler-165

Butler’s HS Class of 2010: (3 recruits; two 3-Stars and one zero-stars; HS seniors in 2010): https://rivals.yahoo.com/basketballrecr ... Butler-165


In short, in the 2010 and 2011 NCAA Tournaments, Brad Stevens’ teams beat UTEP, Murray State, Syracuse, Kansas State, Michigan State, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Florida, and VCU with only one Rivals Top 100 recruit on his roster – 6’7” PF # 26 Matt Howard (# 91 in Rivals 150 / HS Class of 2007).

Brad Stevens: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Stevens

[FormulaX]

I'm sure, you would just care less, if Dayton had a top 20 recruiting class.

[Edrick]

This has been verified through study over and over. Recruiting rankings do matter.

Here is one....

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/22 ... s-In-Depth


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Last week's NFL Draft:

https://twitter.com/LindseyThiry/status ... 9165033473

"@slmandel: Four- and five-star recruits proved 995% more likely to get drafted than others. Wow.Via "

[Jet915]

This has been verified through study over and over. Recruiting rankings do matter.

Here is one....

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/22 ... s-In-Depth


-----------------

Last week's NFL Draft:

https://twitter.com/LindseyThiry/status ... 9165033473

"@slmandel: Four- and five-star recruits proved 995% more likely to get drafted than others. Wow.Via "

Nice article.

[SJHooper]

Rankings do matter in the long run. Everyone seems to like pointing out that McDermott was a 2 star or other famously low-rated kids who turned out to be studs. What they fail to acknowledge is that this is hitting the lottery. It probably happens once a lifetime if it ever happens at all. For every McDermott there are thousands of bums rated similarly.

Who's at the top of the recruit rankings every year? Cuse, Duke, Kentucky, Florida, Michigan, Louisville, etc. They are full of 4 and 5 star players every year. The key though is getting players ranked in the top 5 nationally. There seems to be quite a dropoff from say the #2 or #3 player nationally and the #25+ nationally. Just by eyeballing, they shouldn't be much different, but they are. The top 10 players are the ones that more times than not turnout to be superstars in the NBA.

Kevin Durant: #2
LeBron James: #1
Andrew Wiggins: #1
Anthony Davis: #2
Carmelo Anthony: #1
Dwight Howard: #1
Derrick Rose: #3
John Wall: #1

(As per Rivals)

This is why rankings are so important. This is why Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, and Cuse rule college hoops. When you get top 5 kids you get superstars. It's rare that even a #25+ player becomes a superstar in the NBA. So there is a big dropoff once you leave the top 10.