How Many At-Large Bids are Locked In Already

[stever20]

You left out the big stat though.
Overall SOS
Nebraska 27 Dayton 56

That's the reason why Nebraska is a lock and Dayton isn't.

have to remember with Nebraska, their win tonight isn't reflected on that site yet.

Also, now with both Nebraska especially- they can't take a bad loss in the conference tournament. Like it or not, but Marquette being 84 wouldn't be a good loss quite frankly.

[HoosierPal]

You left out the big stat though.
Overall SOS
Nebraska 27 Dayton 56

That's the reason why Nebraska is a lock and Dayton isn't.

have to remember with Nebraska, their win tonight isn't reflected on that site yet.

Also, now with both Nebraska especially- they can't take a bad loss in the conference tournament. Like it or not, but Marquette being 84 wouldn't be a good loss quite frankly.

The NCAA RPI, the one they use, has Nebraska at 41 today and Dayton 39. St. Joseph is 42. And for reference purposes Xavier is 48.

NE plays likely Ohio State (or Purdue) in the Big 10 tourney. Losing to OSU won't drop their RPI by more than 5. Dayton plays either Mason or Fordham and then St. Joe. St. Joe could be in trouble with a loss to Dayton, but the others should have the appropriate check mark in the RPI column, one of several check marks needed to get a dance invite. Xavier needs a win in the Big East tourney or they will not get the RPI check mark.

[hoyahooligan]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20140311/bubble-watch-selection-sunday-ncaa-tournament/

This writer has 9 bids not locked up with 19 teams fighting for those bids:

His 21 bubble teams: Pitt, FL St, Dayton, St. Joes, Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Nebraska, Minnesota, Colorado, Stanford, Cal, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Gonzaga, BYU, Green Bay

Picking as of today.
let's assume that the 3 Should be in's are in: Xavier, Colorado, Gonzaga. That leaves 16 and 6. I think you can cut the bottom 5 RPI teams Green Bay, Arkansas, Florida St, Cal, and St. John's. So that's down to 11 for 6 spots.

I think Next on my cut list would be Pitt (only 1 top 50 win), Tennessee( only 2 top 50 wins) and Missouri( again only 2 top 50 wins), and Providence ( again only 2 top 50 wins).

That's 7 for 6 spots.

I think the last cut is Georgetown vs. Minnesota. Minnesota has a slightly better RPI and SOS. I think Georgetown's wins over: Creighton, VCU, Michigan St, Kansas St, and Xavier are better than Minnesota's of Wisconsin, Ohio St, and Iowa. Georgetown's 3 losses to 100+ RPI teams is not significantly worse than Minnesota's 2.

But that of course is me doing it. I would be delighted but surprised if the committee left pit out despite their lack of quality wins.

[Milloy]

I knew you were a Hoyas fan before looking at your user name.

GTown is further out than you think.

[HoosierPal]

If you go by the consensus bracket, which averages 96 different brackets, neither MN or G'town are in. Last four in are Nebraska, Xavier, TN and Arkansas. First four out are Cal, MN, Providence and Georgetown. But that's just 96 people talking, not me.

[hoyahooligan]

If you go by the consensus bracket, which averages 96 different brackets, neither MN or G'town are in. Last four in are Nebraska, Xavier, TN and Arkansas. First four out are Cal, MN, Providence and Georgetown. But that's just 96 people talking, not me.

And if you go by dancecard the system that's been the most accurate Georgetown is in. Besides 96 random people's opinion doesn't mean much since 92 of them probably have no clue what they're talking about anyway. Now Georgetown needs to win 2 games to get in. If Georgetown played no more games they wouldn't get in. And Frankly if they beat Creighton they'll have no problem beating who ever they face in the semifinals so I expect Georgetown to end up in the BET championship game if they're on their way to the tournament which will end all discussion.

[Flyer75]

If you go by the consensus bracket, which averages 96 different brackets, neither MN or G'town are in. Last four in are Nebraska, Xavier, TN and Arkansas. First four out are Cal, MN, Providence and Georgetown. But that's just 96 people talking, not me.

And if you go by dancecard the system that's been the most accurate Georgetown is in. Besides 96 random people's opinion doesn't mean much since 92 of them probably have no clue what they're talking about anyway. Now Georgetown needs to win 2 games to get in. If Georgetown played no more games they wouldn't get in. And Frankly if they beat Creighton they'll have no problem beating who ever they face in the semifinals so I expect Georgetown to end up in the BET championship game if they're on their way to the tournament which will end all discussion.

And if you go by that same Dancecard system, Dayton is WAY in.

Dayton and Nebraska are interesting teams to compare. The ONLY metric Nebraska beats Dayton in is the SOS....that's it. Every other statistical category falls UD's way and the Road/Neutral isn't even close. No surprise that's the ONLY metric people here talk about. And that SOS difference comes out to like less then 1 percent point.

[stever20]

If you go by the consensus bracket, which averages 96 different brackets, neither MN or G'town are in. Last four in are Nebraska, Xavier, TN and Arkansas. First four out are Cal, MN, Providence and Georgetown. But that's just 96 people talking, not me.

And if you go by dancecard the system that's been the most accurate Georgetown is in. Besides 96 random people's opinion doesn't mean much since 92 of them probably have no clue what they're talking about anyway. Now Georgetown needs to win 2 games to get in. If Georgetown played no more games they wouldn't get in. And Frankly if they beat Creighton they'll have no problem beating who ever they face in the semifinals so I expect Georgetown to end up in the BET championship game if they're on their way to the tournament which will end all discussion.

um no. These are a lot of folks that are paid to do this.

One thing to remember about that darn Dance Card- it's acting like selection Sunday is right now. Right now, that'd probably be the case. But the problem is that Creighton game on Thursday. If they lose that game, we are done.

As a whole that Bracket Matrix is extremely reliable.

[Flyer75]

Just a question for someone here who might know...I've been told multiple times that the conference tourny's don't have a lot of bearing on who gets in...in other words, the committee knows 95%+ of the field already, and in fact they start meeting tomorrow to start the brackets and the only thing that really changes much is seeding?

Anyway, there haven't been many upsets so far and things are going according to plan which is good for bubble teams.

[stever20]

I think there's something like 30-31 teams that are either in right now or with a game where they are a huge favorite they are in. Realistically I think we're looking at about 10-15 teams fighting for 5-6 spots.