Seed Watch

[GumbyDamnit!]

Hope this topic doesn't come across as a touch spoiled. It is so much more pleasant not having to bite your nails come selection Sunday, and I remember well how last year felt as a Nova fan. I sincerely wish all the BE teams that are still fighting for a spot nothing but great luck in the tourney (and in other conf tourneys) this week. There are several topics related to the bubble, but there are other teams very concerned about seeding, so I thought I'd address it.

1 seed locks:
WSU
Ariz
FL

Pot. 1 seeds:
Nova
Wisc. - win B1G tourney and they could jump Nova; pretty much a lock for at least a 2 IMO
UVA - win ACC tourney and they are no worse than a 2 possibly jump Nova b/c of ACC perception; 3 if they lose early
Duke - winner of Duke/Syr semi is prob a 2 seed lock at least; beat UVA in final and they are now in the discussion for a 1 if other teams falter
Syr - see Duke comments above; like Duke, they are a 3 if they lose that semi; 4 if they lose 1st round
*Kansas - with # of losses and loss to WVU not sure they can make up the ground to be a 1; solid 2; possible 3 if they lose to Ok St. in Big12 QF's
*L'ville - win their tourney, have others lose theirs, and the committee will certainly give them the benefit of the doubt since they are defending NC
*not likely

Other Pot. 2-4 seeds:
Creighton
Michigan
Mich St.
Cincy - winner of AAC tourney may cement at least a 3 seed; thinking that L'ville would be a 2
UNC - 4 or more unless they win ACC tourney
SD St. - 3/4 depending on themselves and others
Iowa St. - tough Big12 tourney ahead but should be at least a 4
SLU - we'll see how much respect the A10 has if they win reg season and tourney titles; would think if they get 5 teams in someone should be a top 4 seed, no?
Others who could be 4's if they win their conf tourney: UConn, Oklahoma, OSU

Nova (1):
#1 Seed - win BET and I believe they secure the 1 spot (especially if that means they beat CU in the final).
#2 - locked in regardless of what happens in NY IMO

Creighton (3):
#2 - If they win BET by beating Nova again and some other things fall into place
#3 - lose in BET final or win but have bad luck with other teams also winning their conf tourney
#4 - lose in BET QF's or Semi's

That's how I see it. Lots of movement with each passing day I expect. Thoughts?

[Bill Marsh]

Disagree that Wichita State is a lock. Someone in that room is going to raise the issue that their SOS is 102. If having the #1 schedule could get Kansas in the conversation for a 1-seed with 6, 7 , or 8 losses, then SOS is a powerful argument. So, the corollary is that a 102 SOS is a powerful argument in the opposite direction. It will be decided based on how many people i the room are on the fence with this issue and how strong the arguments are one way or the other.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Disagree that Wichita State is a lock. Someone in that room is going to raise the issue that their SOS is 102. If having the #1 schedule could get Kansas in the conversation for a 1-seed with 6, 7 , or 8 losses, then SOS is a powerful argument. So, the corollary is that a 102 SOS is a powerful argument in the opposite direction. It will be decided based on how many people i the room are on the fence with this issue and how strong the arguments are one way or the other.

If it comes down to say Wich St and Kansas for the last #1, why not put them both in the same bracket and give the team without 8 losses the #1? If Nova is the 5th best team on the S curve I am praying that Wich St is the 4th. Who would I rather face: FL, Ariz or Wich St.? that's a tough one...

[stever20]

Disagree that Wichita State is a lock. Someone in that room is going to raise the issue that their SOS is 102. If having the #1 schedule could get Kansas in the conversation for a 1-seed with 6, 7 , or 8 losses, then SOS is a powerful argument. So, the corollary is that a 102 SOS is a powerful argument in the opposite direction. It will be decided based on how many people i the room are on the fence with this issue and how strong the arguments are one way or the other.

If it comes down to say Wich St and Kansas for the last #1, why not put them both in the same bracket and give the team without 8 losses the #1? If Nova is the 5th best team on the S curve I am praying that Wich St is the 4th. Who would I rather face: FL, Ariz or Wich St.? that's a tough one...

S curve doesn't matter after the #1 seeds. It's not automatic that if Wichita is #4 that they would have #5 in their bracket(Gonzaga didn't last year- they had #8 Ohio St).

1 thing that is helping Wichita now is teams like Duke, Virginia, Kansas, and Wisconsin taking another loss in the last week(edit, actually add Arizona to that as well).

[OutlawWales]

Disagree that Wichita State is a lock. Someone in that room is going to raise the issue that their SOS is 102. If having the #1 schedule could get Kansas in the conversation for a 1-seed with 6, 7 , or 8 losses, then SOS is a powerful argument. So, the corollary is that a 102 SOS is a powerful argument in the opposite direction. It will be decided based on how many people i the room are on the fence with this issue and how strong the arguments are one way or the other.

Unfortunately, Wichita is as close to being a lock for a #1 seed as anyone could possibly be. Their SOS is absolutely an argument -- but there is almost no possibility that they will not give a #1 seed to a team with a historic 34-0 start, that was in the Final Four last year, and that has been all over ESPN all year long. You can continue thinking that they won't get it. You can absolutely make a lot of arguments about why they should not get it. But it is as close to an absolute guarantee as possible that they will get it.

[Bill Marsh]

Disagree that Wichita State is a lock. Someone in that room is going to raise the issue that their SOS is 102. If having the #1 schedule could get Kansas in the conversation for a 1-seed with 6, 7 , or 8 losses, then SOS is a powerful argument. So, the corollary is that a 102 SOS is a powerful argument in the opposite direction. It will be decided based on how many people i the room are on the fence with this issue and how strong the arguments are one way or the other.

Unfortunately, Wichita is as close to being a lock for a #1 seed as anyone could possibly be. Their SOS is absolutely an argument -- but there is almost no possibility that they will not give a #1 seed to a team with a historic 34-0 start, that was in the Final Four last year, and that has been all over ESPN all year long. You can continue thinking that they won't get it. You can absolutely make a lot of arguments about why they should not get it. But it is as close to an absolute guarantee as possible that they will get it.

Thanks for clearing that up.

[OutlawWales]

Disagree that Wichita State is a lock. Someone in that room is going to raise the issue that their SOS is 102. If having the #1 schedule could get Kansas in the conversation for a 1-seed with 6, 7 , or 8 losses, then SOS is a powerful argument. So, the corollary is that a 102 SOS is a powerful argument in the opposite direction. It will be decided based on how many people i the room are on the fence with this issue and how strong the arguments are one way or the other.

Unfortunately, Wichita is as close to being a lock for a #1 seed as anyone could possibly be. Their SOS is absolutely an argument -- but there is almost no possibility that they will not give a #1 seed to a team with a historic 34-0 start, that was in the Final Four last year, and that has been all over ESPN all year long. You can continue thinking that they won't get it. You can absolutely make a lot of arguments about why they should not get it. But it is as close to an absolute guarantee as possible that they will get it.

Thanks for clearing that up.

I completely agree with you that it should be very, very debatable. I just don't think it really is or will be. Look at it this way -- they are completely finished. Can't lose this week. Everyone else considered a "lock" for a #1 seed or for a #1 or #2 seed can lose this week. There is really no way anyone is jumping ahead of Wichita at this point. You can go ahead and use a sharpie if you want to -- there's a tiny little very slim remote possibility of having to use white out, but it's so remote that you shouldn't even bother to know where the white out is.

[RDinNY]

If a team goes undefeated (something which happens so infrequently), they deserve #1 seed---even if they are not one of the four best teams.

I also think Nova deserves a #1 right now, ahead of Kansas. Both have a high SOS but Nova has lost much fewer games that KU. Things are subject to change, depending on conference tourneys, however.

[MackNova]

Wichita State is undefeated in a conference that isn't godawful, and it beat a couple tournament teams in the process. The strength of schedule stinks, but they're a 1 seed. It's not like Stephen F Austin were undefeated, then there would be a debate.

I think there should have been a debate had it lost in the MVC tournament, but Wichita has to get a 1 seed.

[handdownmandown]

Did you watch any of the MVC tournament? That's the worst basketball I've seen the conference produce since, well, CU was one of the teams that was helping to produce the dreck. That's how bad it was and how long it's been.