How Many At-Large Bids are Locked In Already

[stever20]

45. Xavier - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
44. Dayton - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.

Why dos XU need one more win and UD needs two ?

I think it's because for Dayton, they win vs Richmond- the next game is going to be a dreg game vs George Mason or Duquesne. Xavier doesn't have that type of game left.....

[HoosierPal]

And you know #52 won't make it as there WILL be a conference tourney upset where a .500 team gets in, bumping the last guy on the list. I wouldn't want to be #51 either. I'd want my RPI to be mid 40's to breathe a little easier, 40 or below to be able to sit back and enjoy Selection Sunday

I wouldn't worry too much about that this year as far as the one-bid leagues are concerned. Some years we get strong mid majors who are going to the tournament even if they are upset in their league tournament. But we don't have that this year; this year's mid majors from the one- bid leagues are almost universally weak in wins over the top 50.

We have last year's precedent of Southern Mississippi being passed over despite having a #31 RPI. Their problem was that they hadn't beaten anyone in the top 75. That's a similar situation this year to teams like UW Green Bay, Toledo, North Dakota State, and Southern Mississippi this year.

There is always the possibility that one of the multi-bid leagues is won by someone who was not otherwise going to the tournament. But who it affects remains to be seen. The list is very volatile with positions constantly shifting. The bottom line is that there are currently about a dozen or so teams currently in line for at-large bids but whose fate is not heat certain because they have to continue to win to hold onto their spot. If I were any of them, I would worry more about taking care of my own business than worrying about conference championship upsets.

What the list shows is that there are at least 13 teams who still have work to do and who don't have anything locked up at this point while there aren't least 23 schools who likely do have their at-large bids locked up.

I agree. I really don't see a lot of potential bid stealers out there.

MVC if Wichita St loses
WCC if Gonzaga or BYU don't win
MWC if SDSU or New Mexico dont' win

That's really it.

There are some other potentials:
CUSA: Southern Miss RPI 36 (but only 1 top 50 win)
MAC: Toledo RPI 38 ( but no top 50 wins)
Summit: North Dakota St RPI 41 (but no top 50 wins)
Horizon: Green Bay RPI 51 (but only 1 top 50 win)
OVC: Belmont RPI 58 (but only 1 top 50 win)

I don't see any of those teams making the cut if they fall in their conference tournaments.

If I am Providence or Georgetown, I certainly WOULD be nervous about both S Miss and Toledo getting At Large bids if they don''t win their tourneys. The NCAA RPI - the one they use - has slightly different rankings, with Toledo at 37, but the spread between them and PC/Georgetown is about the same - 18 to 20 RPI positions. That is somewhat significant. Yes, there is more to the selection than RPI, and there have been instances when a low RPI team was not given a ticket, the prime example SW Missouri was 21, but CUSA and MAC are tournaments to pay attention to. Let's get on the Eagles and Rocket's bandwagons. Today the NCAA RPI has Xavier at 45, which isn't in the safety zone either.

[HoosierPal]

There are 36 teams who will get at-large bids. To get to 36, it's necessary to go down to #52 in RPI because 16 conference champions have RPIs in the top 50 according to RPI Forecast. So, I'm going to go backwards from #52 until I get to the teams who will stay in the top 52 even if they lose all the rest of the games. Those are the locks.

On the Outside Looking In OR Next in Line:

53. Nebraska - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
54. Pitt - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 1 win vs the top 50.
55. Florida State - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
56. Georgetown - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.
57. Arkansas - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 50. Currently have 4 wins vs the top 50.
58. Belmont - OVC auto bid.
59. Cal - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
60. St. Mary's - Needs to win their conference tournament to get a bid.
61. Middle Tennessee - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 1 win vs the top 50.
62. St. John's - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 2 wins vs the top 50.

Cruising some message boards. Nebraska is currently RPI 49 per the NCAA, and the Cornhusker fans are maybe 51% confident of a bid. I'd give it maybe 49%. This thing changes daily. Bubble City is not for the faint of heart. Everyone has an opinion

[MackNova]

If I am Providence or Georgetown, I certainly WOULD be nervous about both S Miss and Toledo getting At Large bids if they don''t win their tourneys. The NCAA RPI - the one they use - has slightly different rankings, with Toledo at 37, but the spread between them and PC/Georgetown is about the same - 18 to 20 RPI positions. That is somewhat significant. Yes, there is more to the selection than RPI, and there have been instances when a low RPI team was not given a ticket, the prime example SW Missouri was 21, but CUSA and MAC are tournaments to pay attention to. Let's get on the Eagles and Rocket's bandwagons. Today the NCAA RPI has Xavier at 45, which isn't in the safety zone either.

I don't really see anyone have Southern Miss or Toledo in now. Add one more bad loss in the conference tournament, and neither one is getting an at-large bid.

[HoosierPal]

If I am Providence or Georgetown, I certainly WOULD be nervous about both S Miss and Toledo getting At Large bids if they don''t win their tourneys. The NCAA RPI - the one they use - has slightly different rankings, with Toledo at 37, but the spread between them and PC/Georgetown is about the same - 18 to 20 RPI positions. That is somewhat significant. Yes, there is more to the selection than RPI, and there have been instances when a low RPI team was not given a ticket, the prime example SW Missouri was 21, but CUSA and MAC are tournaments to pay attention to. Let's get on the Eagles and Rocket's bandwagons. Today the NCAA RPI has Xavier at 45, which isn't in the safety zone either.

I don't really see anyone have Southern Miss or Toledo in now. Add one more bad loss in the conference tournament, and neither one is getting an at-large bid.

Your opinion is noted.

But subtract out "anyone" from your statement if you would. The massive bracket matrix has S MIss in now, as the conference winner. LA Tech could knock them off in the final and both COULD sneak in. Not saying it is a lock, just saying I'm not dismissing it.

[Bill Marsh]

There are 36 teams who will get at-large bids. To get to 36, it's necessary to go down to #52 in RPI because 16 conference champions have RPIs in the top 50 according to RPI Forecast. So, I'm going to go backwards from #52 until I get to the teams who will stay in the top 52 even if they lose all the rest of the games. Those are the locks.

On the Outside Looking In OR Next in Line:

53. Nebraska - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
54. Pitt - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 1 win vs the top 50.
55. Florida State - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
56. Georgetown - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.
57. Arkansas - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 50. Currently have 4 wins vs the top 50.
58. Belmont - OVC auto bid.
59. Cal - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
60. St. Mary's - Needs to win their conference tournament to get a bid.
61. Middle Tennessee - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 1 win vs the top 50.
62. St. John's - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 2 wins vs the top 50.

Cruising some message boards. Nebraska is currently RPI 49 per the NCAA, and the Cornhusker fans are maybe 51% confident of a bid. I'd give it maybe 49%. This thing changes daily. Bubble City is not for the faint of heart. Everyone has an opinion

I wasn't using current RPI. I used www.rpiforecast.com, which factors in expected outcomes of remaining games as well as how expected outcomes of remaining games affects the impact of past opponents on projected RPI..

[stever20]

With some of the conference tournaments locked in let's revisit:
AAC- Have to think Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and Memphis are locks. 3
A10- have to think SLU, VCU, GW, UMass are locks. 3
ACC- Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, UNC 3
B12- Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa St, Texas, Kansas St 4
BE- Villanova, Creighton 1
B10- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Ohio St, Iowa 4
MWC- San Diego St, New Mexico 1
P12- Arizona, UCLA, Ariz St, Oregon 3
SEC- Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee 2
WCC- Gonzaga, BYU- 1
by my count 25
bubbles
AAC- SMU- if they beat Houston, they are in.
A10- St Joe's/Dayton- if they avoid bad losses they are in.
ACC- Pitt- if they avoid upset they are in. Florida St, Clemson, and NC St are possible.
B12- Baylor, Oklahoma St- if they win 1st rd games vs TCU and Texas Tech respectively, they are in.
BE- Xavier, Providence if they win QF they are in. St John's and Georgetown need 2 each
B10 Nebraska with 1 more win is in. Minnesota
P12 Colorado, Stanford if they win 1st rd games are in. Cal still with a shot
SEC- Arkansas, Missouri
WCC- St Mary's

right now, I see SMU, St Joe's, Dayton, Pitt, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Colorado, Stanford as almost givens. When you add to the 25 locks, that's up to 32 spots pretty much iced. Leaves only 4 spots left. FSU and Nebraska are really dangerous- they have huge games where if they win, they are likely in.

[Bill Marsh]

With some of the conference tournaments locked in let's revisit:
AAC- Have to think Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and Memphis are locks. 3
A10- have to think SLU, VCU, GW, UMass are locks. 3
ACC- Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, UNC 3
B12- Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa St, Texas, Kansas St 4
BE- Villanova, Creighton 1
B10- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Ohio St, Iowa 4
MWC- San Diego St, New Mexico 1
P12- Arizona, UCLA, Ariz St, Oregon 3
SEC- Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee 2
WCC- Gonzaga, BYU- 1
by my count 25
bubbles
AAC- SMU- if they beat Houston, they are in.
A10- St Joe's/Dayton- if they avoid bad losses they are in.
ACC- Pitt- if they avoid upset they are in. Florida St, Clemson, and NC St are possible.
B12- Baylor, Oklahoma St- if they win 1st rd games vs TCU and Texas Tech respectively, they are in.
BE- Xavier, Providence if they win QF they are in. St John's and Georgetown need 2 each
B10 Nebraska with 1 more win is in. Minnesota
P12 Colorado, Stanford if they win 1st rd games are in. Cal still with a shot
SEC- Arkansas, Missouri
WCC- St Mary's

right now, I see SMU, St Joe's, Dayton, Pitt, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Colorado, Stanford as almost givens. When you add to the 25 locks, that's up to 32 spots pretty much iced. Leaves only 4 spots left. FSU and Nebraska are really dangerous- they have huge games where if they win, they are likely in.

St. Joe's suffered that bad loss to day to LaSalle. They are not a lock. Frankly any team that can be knocked out with a loss is still not a lock. SMU is a perfect example. Regardless of how likely they are to beat Houston, they actually have to go out and do it before they are in. "Almost givens" are not locks. Pitt and Stanford are clearly bubble teams although I agree that they are probably in. Even with today's win, Nebraska is still a bubble team. Florida State did not get the huge win and frankly they have little shot at this point although they continue to cling to hope. They are going to need a big upset or two to get in.

[stever20]

With some of the conference tournaments locked in let's revisit:
AAC- Have to think Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and Memphis are locks. 3
A10- have to think SLU, VCU, GW, UMass are locks. 3
ACC- Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, UNC 3
B12- Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa St, Texas, Kansas St 4
BE- Villanova, Creighton 1
B10- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Ohio St, Iowa 4
MWC- San Diego St, New Mexico 1
P12- Arizona, UCLA, Ariz St, Oregon 3
SEC- Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee 2
WCC- Gonzaga, BYU- 1
by my count 25
bubbles
AAC- SMU- if they beat Houston, they are in.
A10- St Joe's/Dayton- if they avoid bad losses they are in.
ACC- Pitt- if they avoid upset they are in. Florida St, Clemson, and NC St are possible.
B12- Baylor, Oklahoma St- if they win 1st rd games vs TCU and Texas Tech respectively, they are in.
BE- Xavier, Providence if they win QF they are in. St John's and Georgetown need 2 each
B10 Nebraska with 1 more win is in. Minnesota
P12 Colorado, Stanford if they win 1st rd games are in. Cal still with a shot
SEC- Arkansas, Missouri
WCC- St Mary's

right now, I see SMU, St Joe's, Dayton, Pitt, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Colorado, Stanford as almost givens. When you add to the 25 locks, that's up to 32 spots pretty much iced. Leaves only 4 spots left. FSU and Nebraska are really dangerous- they have huge games where if they win, they are likely in.

St. Joe's suffered that bad loss to day to LaSalle. They are not a lock. Frankly any team that can be knocked out with a loss is still not a lock. SMU is a perfect example. Regardless of how likely they are to beat Houston, they actually have to go out and do it before they are in. "Almost givens" are not locks. Pitt and Stanford are clearly bubble teams although I agree that they are probably in. Even with today's win, Nebraska is still a bubble team. Florida State did not get the huge win and frankly they have little shot at this point although they continue to cling to hope. They are going to need a big upset or two to get in.

I didn't say that St Joe's was a lock. They were on the bubble team. SMU I also didn't have as a lock.

Nebraska is almost certainly in now. With a 41 RPI and the good wins they have, going to be tough to see them knocked out. Right now, I have 26 at large spots locked up right now. Teams like SMU, Baylor, and Oklahoma St should win their games and punch their tickets regardless of anything else that happens. Colorado and Stanford same thing. These 5 would take pretty major upsets to not happen. That leaves a lot of teams trying to get roughly 5 spots.

One of the things to watch will be ACC on Thursday/Friday. Clemson, NC State, and Florida St if they can win on Thursday would go up against Duke, Syracuse, and Virginia on Friday. If any of those 3 win, it's not good for us.

[ruechalgrin]

The Nebraska lock talk confounds me as much as the SMU lock talk. I compared Nebraska and Dayton on the Dayton message board, but could do the same thing with Nebraska and Xavier and similar result -- Dayton and Xavier should be ahead of Nebraska, SMU, etc. I am baffled whey they are not. Dance Card supports X and Dayton way ahead of SMU, Nebraska, etc. Georgetown should be ahead of SMU too. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

-RPI = Dayton 39, Neb. 41 = tie
-OOC SOS = Neb. 96, Dayton 98 = tie
-Road/Neutral = Dayton 9-5, Neb. 4-10 = ++ Dayton
-R/N Deep Dive = Dayton 18 Win Away > Neb. 24 Win Away; Dayton 26 Win Neutral > Georgia 73 Win Neutral; Dayton 55 Neutral Win > Neb. 91 Away; Dayton 86 Away Win > Neb. 133 Away; Dayton 103 Away > Neb. No More R/N Wins; Dayton 146, 149, 180 Away Wins > Neb. No More R/N Wins. == ++ Dayton in Terms of Quality and Number of R/N Wins
-top 25 = Dayton 3-2, Neb. 3-6 = + Dayton
-top 50 = Dayton 4-5; Neb. 3-7 = + Dayton
-top 50 deep dive wins = Neb home win 5 > Dayton home win 17; Dayton away 18 > Neb home 23; Neb away 24 > Dayton 26 neutral; Dayton home 30 > Neb. losses; Nebraska average top 50 win is 18 > Dayton average top 50 win is 23, but Dayton has 4 wins versus Neb. 3 wins = tie
-top 51-100 = Dayton 5-1; Neb. 5-1 = tie
-51-100 deep dive wins = Dayton 55 Neutral > Neb. 51 Home (yes neutral gives Dayton +); Dayton 58 home > Neb. 68 home; Neb. 73 Neutral > Dayton 72 Home; Dayton 86 Away = Neb. 91 Away; Dayton Home 90 = Neb. Home 90; Dayton Average Win 51-100 74 = Neb. Average 51-100 Win is 75 so Tie == Tie perhaps slight edge to Dayton
101+ = Dayton 13-3 - Neb. 11-3 = tie, perhaps slight edge to Neb.

Dayton wins or ties every category except perhaps slight edge to Neb. in that they are 11-3 in bad games versus Dayton 13-3. Take the names off the jerseys and the BCS conference away and I honestly don't see why people are calling Neb. a lock.

Again, Xavier would pass the same test easily over Nebraska .... I am actually starting to worry about the basis the BE board is discussing ...