Chris Mack on Xavier's NCAA chances and BE vs A10

[Hoopfan]

St Joe's loses at home on Sr night to LaSalle today. Yeah, they're worthy of a bid. Ugh.

X was swept by sh, GT was beat by northeastern, they're worthy of a bid. One game does not make a season or these teams wouldn't be sitting on the bubble as well. Everyone on the bubble is their bc they have bad losses

G'twn beat VCU, Mich State and Creighton. XU beat Creighton and Cincy. St joes lost to Temple who is comparable to Northeastern. St Joes benefitted from an unbalanced A10 schedule (played GW, VCU and STL once and 2 of those at home.) Best OOC win is home vs Boston U. Realistically how many losses would they have in the BE had they been invited instead of Butler. I would guess at absolute best 8, prob more like 6-7. They lost at home to both Creighton and Nova this year. No way they'd win @ either of those. At best they'd split with SJU, G'twn, PC, X, Marq, SHU and swept DeP (prob not likely though). With no good OOC wins and a loss to Temple they wouldnt even be a bubble team. They simply are not very good. They are what is wrong with the RPI formula.

The only fix to this is to not have conferences. You have more choice ooc but come conference play, you play whos in front of you. St joe beat most the teams they played with the exception of this bad loss. No idea who else they lost to. But thats the way it goes when you have more teams to face that arnt as good to bump up your win column

[GumbyDamnit!]

These arguments come up each year and I know I should not zero in on just one team, but I can't understand how St Joes can even be a bubble team at this point. I think at large teams should be able to demonstrate that they can get a few wins against teams that are solidly in the tourney. There are 4 teams in the A10--GW, VCU, SLU, UD (barely)--that can make an argument. From what I can see from St Joe they lost, at home, to 3 solid tourney teams (VU, CU, SLU) and have one decent win (VCU, home). That's it. Their best OOC win was at home to Boston U. How have they proven that they can beat a good team in the tourney? LSU? Loss. Temple? Loss. But they basically get 7-8 wins against the slop of the A10 and won a couple home games against teams that quite frankly are nowhere near the talent levels of teams like SHU and Butler who were our bottom dwellers. Again I just look at their resume and think that between fortunate conf scheduling and beating so-so OOC teams, they've figured out how to play the RPI game.

[stever20]

These arguments come up each year and I know I should not zero in on just one team, but I can't understand how St Joes can even be a bubble team at this point. I think at large teams should be able to demonstrate that they can get a few wins against teams that are solidly in the tourney. There are 4 teams in the A10--GW, VCU, SLU, UD (barely)--that can make an argument. From what I can see from St Joe they lost, at home, to 3 solid tourney teams (VU, CU, SLU) and have one decent win (VCU, home). That's it. Their best OOC win was at home to Boston U. How have they proven that they can beat a good team in the tourney? LSU? Loss. Temple? Loss. But they basically get 7-8 wins against the slop of the A10 and won a couple home games against teams that quite frankly are nowhere near the talent levels of teams like SHU and Butler who were our bottom dwellers. Again I just look at their resume and think that between fortunate conf scheduling and beating so-so OOC teams, they've figured out how to play the RPI game.

Um, what about UMass? They split with them, swept Dayton, and beat VCU. Also, beat Boston U who will win the Patriot.

[billyjack]

These arguments come up each year and I know I should not zero in on just one team, but I can't understand how St Joes can even be a bubble team at this point. I think at large teams should be able to demonstrate that they can get a few wins against teams that are solidly in the tourney. There are 4 teams in the A10--GW, VCU, SLU, UD (barely)--that can make an argument. From what I can see from St Joe they lost, at home, to 3 solid tourney teams (VU, CU, SLU) and have one decent win (VCU, home). That's it. Their best OOC win was at home to Boston U. How have they proven that they can beat a good team in the tourney? LSU? Loss. Temple? Loss. But they basically get 7-8 wins against the slop of the A10 and won a couple home games against teams that quite frankly are nowhere near the talent levels of teams like SHU and Butler who were our bottom dwellers. Again I just look at their resume and think that between fortunate conf scheduling and beating so-so OOC teams, they've figured out how to play the RPI game.

Um, what about UMass? They split with them, swept Dayton, and beat VCU. Also, beat Boston U who will win the Patriot.

Wow, I was a little unsure on St Joe's, but seeing that the Boston U Terriers won the Patriot... wow...! That's their best OOC win...! BU, UVM, Drexel and Denver... Top 4 OOC wins... loss to Temple... Gumby's 100% right.

St Joe's RPI is partly feeding off Creighton and Villanova and the Big East-- their winning percentage, and their opponents' opponents winning percentage...

[stever20]

can't we say the same about St John's?

Their best OOC win was against San Francisco. Outside of that nothing. St Joe's playing Nova and Creighton almost equal to St John's playing Wisconsin and Syracuse. In conference, they got 7 of their wins vs Marquette, Butler, DePaul, and Seton Hall- once again, very similar. Beat Providence, Georgetown, and yes Creighton- pretty similar to beating UMass, VCU, and Dayton 2x.

Right now St John's has 1 win against a team in the tourney. St Joe's has got 2 for sure, and quite possibly 5.

[ruechalgrin]

can't we say the same about St John's?

Their best OOC win was against San Francisco. Outside of that nothing. St Joe's playing Nova and Creighton almost equal to St John's playing Wisconsin and Syracuse. In conference, they got 7 of their wins vs Marquette, Butler, DePaul, and Seton Hall- once again, very similar. Beat Providence, Georgetown, and yes Creighton- pretty similar to beating UMass, VCU, and Dayton 2x.

Right now St John's has 1 win against a team in the tourney. St Joe's has got 2 for sure, and quite possibly 5.

Right now, St. Joe's has a better resume than St. John's but they are quickly trending in opposite directions and St. John's could overtake St. Joe's this week.

RPI = St. Joe's 42 > St. John's 57 = + St. Joe's
OOC SOS St. John's 127 = St. Joe's 133 = Tie
Top 50 Record = St. Joe's 4-5 > St. John's 1-7 = ++ St. Joe's
R/N Record = St. Joe's 10-5 > St. John's 6-7 + + St. Joe's (quality also slight nod to St. Joe's when compare R/N wins).
51-100 Record = St. John's 5-2 > St. Joe's 2-2 = ++ St. John's
101+ Record = St. Joe's 15-1 > St. John's 14-2 = + St. Joe's with only 1 bad loss

Again, things can change this upcoming week, but right now St. Joe's on the bubble but in and trending negatively whereas St. John's on the bubble and out and trending positively. Facts above seem to support this objectively and dance card does as well. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[augkash]

How is Dayton and XU rivalry unhealthy? Just BC some fans think so? The players on both team play each other in the summer all the time. The rivalry is far from unhealthy

[stever20]

can't we say the same about St John's?

Their best OOC win was against San Francisco. Outside of that nothing. St Joe's playing Nova and Creighton almost equal to St John's playing Wisconsin and Syracuse. In conference, they got 7 of their wins vs Marquette, Butler, DePaul, and Seton Hall- once again, very similar. Beat Providence, Georgetown, and yes Creighton- pretty similar to beating UMass, VCU, and Dayton 2x.

Right now St John's has 1 win against a team in the tourney. St Joe's has got 2 for sure, and quite possibly 5.

Right now, St. Joe's has a better resume than St. John's but they are quickly trending in opposite directions and St. John's could overtake St. Joe's this week.

RPI = St. Joe's 42 > St. John's 57 = + St. Joe's
OOC SOS St. John's 127 = St. Joe's 133 = Tie
Top 50 Record = St. Joe's 4-5 > St. John's 1-7 = ++ St. Joe's
R/N Record = St. Joe's 10-5 > St. John's 6-7 + + St. Joe's (quality also slight nod to St. Joe's when compare R/N wins).
51-100 Record = St. John's 5-2 > St. Joe's 2-2 = ++ St. John's
101+ Record = St. Joe's 15-1 > St. John's 14-2 = + St. Joe's with only 1 bad loss

Again, things can change this upcoming week, but right now St. Joe's on the bubble but in and trending negatively whereas St. John's on the bubble and out and trending positively. Facts above seem to support this objectively and dance card does as well. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

For St John's to overtake St Joe's they would have to beat Nova. St Joe's wouldn't get dinged much by losing to Dayton, while St John's wouldn't gain enough to make up the difference if they lose to Nova. Beating PC by itself won't eliminate the gap by any stretch. One of St John's problems is their record vs tourney teams. The 1-7 is huge.

[billyjack]

Food for thought if the committee members have human brains:

St John's played 6 games vs Top-10 RPI teams, and won 1 of them.
St John's losses in the 5 games vs the Top-10 RPI teams were by only 3 pts, 3 pts, 5 pts, 7 pts and 11 pts.

St Joseph's played 1 game vs a Top-10 RPI team, and lost it.
St Joseph's loss in their only game vs a Top-10 RPI was by a whopping 30 (thirty) points, at home.

TO REPEAT:
ST JOHN'S: 6 games vs Top-10 ---> 1 win vs Creighton ---> 5 losses by an avg of 5 points ---> all were 2 possession games under 4 minutes.
ST JOSEPH'S: 1 game vs Top-10 ---> LOST BY 30 POINTS AT HOME.

Will the committee use their brains and take this into consideration...?

[stever20]

Food for thought if the committee members have human brains:

St John's played 6 games vs Top-10 RPI teams, and won 1 of them.
St John's losses in the 5 games vs the Top-10 RPI teams were by only 3 pts, 3 pts, 5 pts, 7 pts and 11 pts.

St Joseph's played 1 game vs a Top-10 RPI team, and lost it.
St Joseph's loss in their only game vs a Top-10 RPI was by a whopping 30 (thirty) points, at home.

Will the committee use their brains and take this into consideration...?

um, didn't St Joe's also lose by 4 to Creighton?

also St John's next best team they played is #48 Xavier. Lost 2x...

St Joe's in the meantime played 4 teams 11-20 and went 2-2 vs them.

St John's 2nd best win is vs Georgetown. Huge difference there.