How many more wins each team needs to get in

[billyjack]

I feel the winner of sju Providence makes it. Otherwise, we are looking at a three bid league maximum (barring a big upset by GT) which is ridiculous for the third best conference.

conferences don't get bids, teams do(also by RPI, we're #4)...

St John's at 21-12 just isn't good enough to get a bid. Not with their profile. Also, I'm sorry, but Xavier isn't a lock yet either. We have a chance if things go terrible for only 2 spots. When your 3rd best team has a 48 RPI, you are in trouble.

Yeah, if our 3rd best team is at 48 RPI, BUT our top-6 teams are in the top-60, then things are looked at differently.

The committee is going to leave 4 BE teams at the doorstep? If so then the committee is deliberately trying to screw with us.

Also, as far as "teams" getting bids, not "conferences"... of course the committee is going to claim that... otherwise it would look like favoritism to certain conferences.

So 4 BE teams will get NIT 1-seeds... I find that hard to believe that they'd screw with us like that.

[micgoG'town]

G'town went 1-4 without Trawick (at Xavier, Creighton and home to Seton Hall, Marquette). How much consideration will that get by the committee?

[stever20]

I feel the winner of sju Providence makes it. Otherwise, we are looking at a three bid league maximum (barring a big upset by GT) which is ridiculous for the third best conference.

conferences don't get bids, teams do(also by RPI, we're #4)...

St John's at 21-12 just isn't good enough to get a bid. Not with their profile. Also, I'm sorry, but Xavier isn't a lock yet either. We have a chance if things go terrible for only 2 spots. When your 3rd best team has a 48 RPI, you are in trouble.

Yeah, if our 3rd best team is at 48 RPI, BUT our top-6 teams are in the top-60, then things are looked at differently.

The committee is going to leave 4 BE teams at the doorstep? If so then the committee is deliberately trying to screw with us.

Also, as far as "teams" getting bids, not "conferences"... of course the committee is going to claim that... otherwise it would look like favoritism to certain conferences.

So 4 BE teams will get NIT 1-seeds... I find that hard to believe that they'd screw with us like that.

you'd have to look at this though
Xavier right now 48- would lose to #84 Marquette- would take a pretty good fall
Providence right now- 54- would lose to #58 St John's- would drop 2-3 spots
St John's right now 58- would win then lose- would maybe go up by 2-3 spots
Georgetown right now 53- would win then lose- would go up by 2-3 spots- but also be 18-14.

so we'd be looking where Georgetown may be near 50, but 18-14. The other 3 would all be around 55ish which just isn't good enough to make the tourney normally by any stretch.

It's not the committee's fault that Georgetown would have 14 losses, St John's and Providence didn't schedule well OOC, or Xavier had the injury(or went 0-3 in Atlantis).

[stever20]

G'town went 1-4 without Trawick (at Xavier, Creighton and home to Seton Hall, Marquette). How much consideration will that get by the committee?

a lot of times not much. can't assume the team would have won with him. Same problem that Xavier is going to face- can't assume that they would have beaten Nova on Thursday if he had been healthy....

[ruechalgrin]

All the BE fans need to relax.

You are getting 3-5 in depending on how the BE goes and depending on how other bubble teams fare the next 8 days.

Right now, the most accurate and objective bracketologist (because it is an algorithm and does not have human subjectivity) has 3 BE teams as locks, 1 on the right side of the bubble (Georgetown) and 2 on the wrong side (which are St. John's and Providence so this is an elimination game barring craziness with all the bubble teams). http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

it is difficult to know how many wins each team needs because it depends on what the other bubble teams do -- Stanford and Pitt losing yesterday would have helped.

Full disclosure, yes I am a Dayton fan. But I think it will work out for the BE and my guess in an off year like this you will get 4 teams in -- locks of Villanova, Creighton, Xavier; and at least one of Georgetown, Providence, and St. John's and possibly 2. I just don't see 6 happening unless everything breaks for the BE and everything breaks against the rest of the bubble teams which is highly unlikely (similarly I don't see 2 ever happening and having just 3 is highly unlikely but within the realm of possibility).

And you are not getting screwed, it is not about ESPN, bad PR, etc. -- the dance card link above tries to mimic what the committee has done the last 10 years which gives you 4 teams in and 2 on the first 4 out list. The BE is too good for all the conspiracy theories. It does not matter that the BE is the 3rd/4th best RPI conference, all about the individual team resumes.

[stever20]

All the BE fans need to relax.

You are getting 3-5 in depending on how the BE goes and depending on how other bubble teams fare the next 8 days.

Right now, the most accurate and objective bracketologist (because it is an algorithm and does not have human subjectivity) has 3 BE teams as locks, 1 on the right side of the bubble (Georgetown) and 2 on the wrong side (which are St. John's and Providence so this is an elimination game barring craziness with all the bubble teams). http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

it is difficult to know how many wins each team needs because it depends on what the other bubble teams do -- Stanford and Pitt losing yesterday would have helped.

Full disclosure, yes I am a Dayton fan. But I think it will work out for the BE and my guess in an off year like this you will get 4 teams in -- locks of Villanova, Creighton, Xavier; and at least one of Georgetown, Providence, and St. John's and possibly 2. I just don't see 6 happening unless everything breaks for the BE and everything breaks against the rest of the bubble teams which is highly unlikely (similarly I don't see 2 ever happening and having just 3 is highly unlikely but within the realm of possibility).

And you are not getting screwed, it is not about ESPN, bad PR, etc. -- the dance card link above tries to mimic what the committee has done the last 10 years which gives you 4 teams in and 2 on the first 4 out list. The BE is too good for all the conspiracy theories. It does not matter that the BE is the 3rd/4th best RPI conference, all about the individual team resumes.

I think Xavier may normally have been a lock, but given the injury, if he can't play, it's going to impact the committee. Also, this doesn't take into account future games. So, if Xavier loses to Marquette, that's going to ding them really good. Another problem with it is it uses the old RPI which treated all games equally. Xavier is something of a home court hero. they are only 5-9 away from home. Their RPI record right now is only 15-9.4. If they lose again, it's 15-10.4. That's a pretty low record. Xavier by no means is a lock right now.

Also, I don't think if Georgetown just goes 1-1 we have a chance of making it. Definitely not the 99.94% chance your link is.

There's 0 chance of the Providence/St John's loser making the tourney.

[ruechalgrin]

All the BE fans need to relax.

You are getting 3-5 in depending on how the BE goes and depending on how other bubble teams fare the next 8 days.

Right now, the most accurate and objective bracketologist (because it is an algorithm and does not have human subjectivity) has 3 BE teams as locks, 1 on the right side of the bubble (Georgetown) and 2 on the wrong side (which are St. John's and Providence so this is an elimination game barring craziness with all the bubble teams). http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

it is difficult to know how many wins each team needs because it depends on what the other bubble teams do -- Stanford and Pitt losing yesterday would have helped.

Full disclosure, yes I am a Dayton fan. But I think it will work out for the BE and my guess in an off year like this you will get 4 teams in -- locks of Villanova, Creighton, Xavier; and at least one of Georgetown, Providence, and St. John's and possibly 2. I just don't see 6 happening unless everything breaks for the BE and everything breaks against the rest of the bubble teams which is highly unlikely (similarly I don't see 2 ever happening and having just 3 is highly unlikely but within the realm of possibility).

And you are not getting screwed, it is not about ESPN, bad PR, etc. -- the dance card link above tries to mimic what the committee has done the last 10 years which gives you 4 teams in and 2 on the first 4 out list. The BE is too good for all the conspiracy theories. It does not matter that the BE is the 3rd/4th best RPI conference, all about the individual team resumes.

I think Xavier may normally have been a lock, but given the injury, if he can't play, it's going to impact the committee. Also, this doesn't take into account future games. So, if Xavier loses to Marquette, that's going to ding them really good. Another problem with it is it uses the old RPI which treated all games equally. Xavier is something of a home court hero. they are only 5-9 away from home. Their RPI record right now is only 15-9.4. If they lose again, it's 15-10.4. That's a pretty low record. Xavier by no means is a lock right now.

Also, I don't think if Georgetown just goes 1-1 we have a chance of making it. Definitely not the 99.94% chance your link is.

There's 0 chance of the Providence/St John's loser making the tourney.

Dance card has missed 1 team the last 2 years, but replicates the factors the committee uses via an algorithm so only as accurate as the committee is consistent, but the committee has been becoming more and more consistent the last 2 years. Hopefully they are again. The dance card has big swings every day so yes the next 8 days will make a big difference. Dayton has gone from like 45 to 30 the last 1.5 weeks after wins versus Umass, St. Louis, and Richmond.

Agree St. John's/Providence game basically an elimination game.

But for the X injury, they are a lock. Don't know how the committee deals with this, but I still think they are a near-lock.

[adoraz11]

Yeah I get that and have heard the argument plenty. I still think Big East gets four in, three minimum. Two is possible if Xavier and Providence lose, but there's more factors that the rpi that everyone focuses. For example, sju late season run and Xavier injury. Also sju having higher ranking in other categories like kenpom and bpi. Regardless conference really needs to add some teams for next year. We can't afford having this happen again.

bpi is completely meaningless. St John's also if they go 1-1 in the tourney would be 3-3 last 6 games. So it's not like they are red hot now like they were a few weeks ago. Also, there's a LOT about St John's profile outside the RPI that isn't good at all. They have very few top 100 wins.

Xavier's injury doesn't help them in the committee's eyes. Not at all. He needs to play and be fairly effective or the committee will question will he be ready for the NCAA tourney. X is a lot different team w/o him.

You make some good points but you're one of the most pessimistic posters I've ever seen lol. All bubble teams have issues. I'd estimate sju has a 30-40% chance if they beat Providence and lose to Nova. Look at the losses, nearly all the top 50 are close and to top 10 teams. I'm not saying they're a lock by any means if they lose to Nova, I'm just saying I think there's a chance they sneak in there selection Sunday. A lot also depends on how other teams do.

[stever20]

Dance card has missed 1 team the last 2 years, but replicates the factors the committee uses via an algorithm so only as accurate as the committee is consistent, but the committee has been becoming more and more consistent the last 2 years. Hopefully they are again. The dance card has big swings every day so yes the next 8 days will make a big difference. Dayton has gone from like 45 to 30 the last 1.5 weeks after wins versus Umass, St. Louis, and Richmond.

Agree St. John's/Providence game basically an elimination game.

But for the X injury, they are a lock. Don't know how the committee deals with this, but I still think they are a near-lock.

Understand what you're saying. They though say it takes into account only what's happened so far. My point is a loss to Marquette would be a HUGE blow(Marquette if they go 1-1 their final projected RPI is 83.3). Their RPI would fall all the way down to 61.9. That's at a level that just normally doesn't even get a 2nd look quite frankly.

[stever20]

Yeah I get that and have heard the argument plenty. I still think Big East gets four in, three minimum. Two is possible if Xavier and Providence lose, but there's more factors that the rpi that everyone focuses. For example, sju late season run and Xavier injury. Also sju having higher ranking in other categories like kenpom and bpi. Regardless conference really needs to add some teams for next year. We can't afford having this happen again.

bpi is completely meaningless. St John's also if they go 1-1 in the tourney would be 3-3 last 6 games. So it's not like they are red hot now like they were a few weeks ago. Also, there's a LOT about St John's profile outside the RPI that isn't good at all. They have very few top 100 wins.

Xavier's injury doesn't help them in the committee's eyes. Not at all. He needs to play and be fairly effective or the committee will question will he be ready for the NCAA tourney. X is a lot different team w/o him.

You make some good points but you're one of the most pessimistic posters I've ever seen lol. All bubble teams have issues. I'd estimate sju has a 30-40% chance if they beat Providence and lose to Nova. Look at the losses, nearly all the top 50 are close and to top 10 teams. I'm not saying they're a lock by any means if they lose to Nova, I'm just saying I think there's a chance they sneak in there selection Sunday. A lot also depends on how other teams do.

Their problem is RPI. 56.5 is awfully low(what the projection is going 1-1). 1-8 vs top 50 teams at that point. EVERYTHING would need to go right for them, and even there, not sure...