How many more wins each team needs to get in

[DudeAnon]

I find it hard to be that optimistic. Would the committee really want a bubble team that has been in a tailspin?

[Bill Marsh]

Xavier is safely in right now, and Georgetown right on the bubble.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance card has been really accurate the last 2 years going 100% -- will change up to last game of the season which includes conference tournament.

BTW, I don't buy X win a game in Big East and in/out. It really depends on what other bubble teams do, but I think X is safely in right now as I believe in the dance card methodology. And team rankings.com is nice, but I have yet to see how accurate it is and from what I see comparing it to dance card with a huge history of accuracy, teamrankings.com looks way off.

Don't see Xavier being safe at all if they don't win one more game. At best, they'll be on the bubble at that point, so the Stainbrook injury will become part of the evaluation. Without him, they're not one of the 36 best at large teams, and it's the committee's job to get the best 36.

At a bare minimum, if Xavier doesn't win another game, Stainbrook must show that he's healthy and able to play effectively.

[Bill Marsh]

I find it hard to be that optimistic. Would the committee really want a bubble team that has been in a tailspin?

Sure. They took Cincinnati last year when they were in a tailspin, didn't they.

[XUFan09]

Xavier is safely in right now, and Georgetown right on the bubble.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance card has been really accurate the last 2 years going 100% -- will change up to last game of the season which includes conference tournament.

BTW, I don't buy X win a game in Big East and in/out. It really depends on what other bubble teams do, but I think X is safely in right now as I believe in the dance card methodology. And team rankings.com is nice, but I have yet to see how accurate it is and from what I see comparing it to dance card with a huge history of accuracy, teamrankings.com looks way off.

Don't see Xavier being safe at all if they don't win one more game. At best, they'll be on the bubble at that point, so the Stainbrook injury will become part of the evaluation. Without him, they're not one of the 36 best at large teams, and it's the committee's job to get the best 36.

At a bare minimum, if Xavier doesn't win another game, Stainbrook must show that he's healthy and able to play effectively.

This is spot on. Either:

(1) Xavier has to win a game without Stainbrook playing meaningful minutes.
-or-
(2) Xavier can lose a competitive game but Stainbrook has to play meaningful minutes, suggesting he'll be fine for the tournament.

Option 1 seems more plausible than Option 2, as I don't see Stainbrook being able to play more than just a few minutes until (ironically) the tournament.

[XUFan09]

I find it hard to be that optimistic. Would the committee really want a bubble team that has been in a tailspin?

How are they in a tailspin? They lost two straight games in the Big East. Okay, that happens, especially when it's a road game followed by a home game against the #6 team in the country.

Now, if you're also referencing the Stainbrook injury, that makes a little more sense.

[stever20]

It's goign to be really interesting with Xavier. They need to hope some things like Nebraska/Wisconsin game(more than you think, if Nebraska wins, they clinch #4 seed, so don't have to face 12 seed in 1st rd), Florida St/Syracuse- don't go wrong.

And even if they do make it, odds are really good that Xavier will be in the PIG if they lose- which would be 2-3 fewer days than maybe X fans are hoping to get him back.

[Bill Marsh]

Villanova and Creighton are obviously already in the tournament. After tonight's Georgetown win, here's how many more wins each team needs to get in according to RPI Forecast:

1 - Xavier
2 - Georgetown
2/3 - Providence
3 - St. John's
4 - Marquette

The rest would need to win the Big East tournament to get a bid. It's interesting that there are 5 teams that still have a shot to get a bid without winning the tourney next week.

After this afternoon's results, St. John's and Georgetown each needs to get to the BE tournament finals to get a bid.

[SJHooper]

Villanova and Creighton are obviously already in the tournament. After tonight's Georgetown win, here's how many more wins each team needs to get in according to RPI Forecast:

1 - Xavier
2 - Georgetown
2/3 - Providence
3 - St. John's
4 - Marquette

The rest would need to win the Big East tournament to get a bid. It's interesting that there are 5 teams that still have a shot to get a bid without winning the tourney next week.

After this afternoon's results, St. John's and Georgetown each needs to get to the BE tournament finals to get a bid.

G'Town needs to win it all. SJ needs 2 wins. G'Town and SJ are 2 teams headed in different directions. I feel like teams blowing out G'Town is becoming fairly normal. SJ really doesn't get blown out except for 1 game vs. Xavier early in the year when we were lost. You have a sputtering team like G'Town and a hot team like SJ on the bubble. G'Town only has 17 wins and is 2 games under .500 in conference. SJ has 20 wins and is 2 games above .500 in conference. Not sure their great key wins overcomes that bad record. This is why I think they have more work to do in the BET. Their best case scenario with wins is where SJ is right now at 20.

G'Town is much more spontaneous. One day they beat #7 MSU. Then they lose by 20+ to SJU. Then they beat #10 Creighton. Then they get crapped on vs. Nova. They are very inconsistent and the committee doesn't like that. SJ started 0-5 finished 10-3 including a win vs. #12 Creighton, a sweep of Marquette, a blowout of G'Town, a win over PC, a 3 pt loss to Nova at their house, etc. No doubt that will be looked at. Look at the team in the first 5 games compared to now and you wouldn't recognize them. Still can't believe PC won 2 games on inbounds errors. Ugh.

By the way, it's a joke that Minnesota is considered above PC and SJ right now. They are 7-10 in conference with 18 wins! Dayton is legit. Arkansas is legit but they just got waxed by a bad Alabama team. Nebraska is pretty legit. Tennessee doesn't even have a ranked win and they have a similar RPI and record to SJ.

I think ESPN is just being very anti-Big East. If SJ wins 2 games they are in.

[stever20]

bracket is set....
1 Villanova
2 Creighton
3 Xavier
4 Providence
5 St John's
6 Marquette
7 Georgetown
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul

Wed
10 DePaul vs 7 Georgetown
9 Seton Hall vs 8 Butler
Thu
SH/But vs 1 Villanova
5 St John's vs 4 Providence
DeP/Geo vs 2 Creighton
6 Marquette vs 3 Xavier

I think this bracket eliminates any remote hope of getting 6 bids in. The loser of St John's/Providence isn't getting in.

best case, we have a Villanova/Providence and Georgetown/Xavier SF set I think. That is the only one that probably gets us 5 teams in even- and that's if Providence is in with 1 win.

worst case we have a Villanova/St John's and Creighton/Marquette SF, then Villanova/Creighton in the final. Georgetown and Providence definitely out then, St John's most likely out, and Xavier flying in the wind.

[Catscratchy]

bracket is set....
1 Villanova
2 Creighton
3 Xavier
4 Providence
5 St John's
6 Marquette
7 Georgetown
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul

Wed
10 DePaul vs 7 Georgetown
9 Seton Hall vs 8 Butler
Thu
SH/But vs 1 Villanova
5 St John's vs 4 Providence
DeP/Geo vs 2 Creighton
6 Marquette vs 3 Xavier

I think this bracket eliminates any remote hope of getting 6 bids in. The loser of St John's/Providence isn't getting in.

best case, we have a Villanova/Providence and Georgetown/Xavier SF set I think. That is the only one that probably gets us 5 teams in even- and that's if Providence is in with 1 win.

worst case we have a Villanova/St John's and Creighton/Marquette SF, then Villanova/Creighton in the final. Georgetown and Providence definitely out then, St John's most likely out, and Xavier flying in the wind.

Agree 100% Stever