How Many At-Large Bids are Locked In Already

[HoosierPal]

Think if they lost to both, they would have to make the big ten final to have a shot.

Or at least beat a Top 25 team in a quarterfinal. But yeah, they would need to go on a run.

[HoosierPal]

Indiana fell out of the discussion, but Dayton jumped right back onto the bubble. It looks more and more like the A-10 will get a minimum of 5 teams in and a possible 6.

[Bill Marsh]

There are 36 teams who will get at-large bids. To get to 36, it's necessary to go down to #52 in RPI because 16 conference champions have RPIs in the top 50 according to RPI Forecast. So, I'm going to go backwards from #52 until I get to the teams who will stay in the top 52 even if they lose all the rest of the games. Those are the locks.

52. Providence - Need 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 2 wins vs the top 50.
51. Minnesota - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
50. Missouri - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
49. Green Bay - Horizon auto bid.
48. Stanford - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 4 wins vs the top 50.
47. Harvard - Ivy League auto bid.
46. Tennessee - Needs 2 wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 2 wins vs the top 50.
45. Xavier - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
44. Dayton - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.
43. SMU - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.
42. North Dakota State - Summit League auto bid.
41. Kansas State - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 8 wins vs the top 50.
40. Toledo - MAC auto bid.
39. Oklahoma State - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 7 wins vs the top 50.
38. Baylor - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 7 wins vs the top 50.
37. Iowa - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 4 wins vs the top 50.
36. St. Joe's - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently 4 wins vs the top 50.
35. Southern Mississippi - CUSA auto bid.
34. BYU - Lock for the top 52 with current win total. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.

Everyone else is a lock to finish in the top 52 with their current win total. By conference, including the locks listed above, they are:

Pac-12 (5) - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona State
SEC (2) - Florida, Kentucky
Big XII (5) - Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State
MVC (1) - Wichita state
BEC (2) - Villanova, Creighton
B1G (4) - Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State
ACC (4) - Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina
MWC (2) - San Diego State, New Mexico
AAC (4) - Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis
A10 (4) - UMass, VCU, St Louis, GW
WCC (2) - Gonzaga, BYU

On the Outside Looking In OR Next in Line:

53. Nebraska - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
54. Pitt - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 1 win vs the top 50.
55. Florida State - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
56. Georgetown - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.
57. Arkansas - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 50. Currently have 4 wins vs the top 50.
58. Belmont - OVC auto bid.
59. Cal - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
60. St. Mary's - Needs to win their conference tournament to get a bid.
61. Middle Tennessee - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 1 win vs the top 50.
62. St. John's - Needs 3 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 2 wins vs the top 50.

Since I have no idea what subjective value each committee member will put on the various factors that relate to selection, this seemed like the most objective way to present the data.

[stever20]

even by your list, which is very Big East optimistic, 23 at large bids are gone... leaving only 13

I'd argue teams like Baylor, Oklahoma St are virtual locks- as long as they don't lose to TCU or Texas Tech, they are in. Same goes with Kansas St quite frankly. Big 12 will have 7 in.

[HoosierPal]

even by your list, which is very Big East optimistic, 23 at large bids are gone... leaving only 13

I'd argue teams like Baylor, Oklahoma St are virtual locks- as long as they don't lose to TCU or Texas Tech, they are in. Same goes with Kansas St quite frankly. Big 12 will have 7 in.

And you know #52 won't make it as there WILL be a conference tourney upset where a .500 team gets in, bumping the last guy on the list. I wouldn't want to be #51 either. I'd want my RPI to be mid 40's to breathe a little easier, 40 or below to be able to sit back and enjoy Selection Sunday

[Bill Marsh]

even by your list, which is very Big East optimistic, 23 at large bids are gone... leaving only 13

I'd argue teams like Baylor, Oklahoma St are virtual locks- as long as they don't lose to TCU or Texas Tech, they are in. Same goes with Kansas St quite frankly. Big 12 will have 7 in.

And you know #52 won't make it as there WILL be a conference tourney upset where a .500 team gets in, bumping the last guy on the list. I wouldn't want to be #51 either. I'd want my RPI to be mid 40's to breathe a little easier, 40 or below to be able to sit back and enjoy Selection Sunday

I wouldn't worry too much about that this year as far as the one-bid leagues are concerned. Some years we get strong mid majors who are going to the tournament even if they are upset in their league tournament. But we don't have that this year; this year's mid majors from the one- bid leagues are almost universally weak in wins over the top 50.

We have last year's precedent of Southern Mississippi being passed over despite having a #31 RPI. Their problem was that they hadn't beaten anyone in the top 75. That's a similar situation this year to teams like UW Green Bay, Toledo, North Dakota State, and Southern Mississippi this year.

There is always the possibility that one of the multi-bid leagues is won by someone who was not otherwise going to the tournament. But who it affects remains to be seen. The list is very volatile with positions constantly shifting. The bottom line is that there are currently about a dozen or so teams currently in line for at-large bids but whose fate is not yet certain because they have to continue to win to hold onto their spot. If I were any of them, I would worry more about taking care of my own business than worrying about conference championship upsets.

What the list shows is that there are at least 13 teams who still have work to do and who don't have anything locked up at this point while there aren't least 23 schools who likely do have their at-large bids locked up.

[ruechalgrin]

Indiana fell out of the discussion, but Dayton jumped right back onto the bubble. It looks more and more like the A-10 will get a minimum of 5 teams in and a possible 6.

Dayton was barely the on right side of the bubble before St. Louis and now is safely on the right side of the bubble after St. Louis (so not jumping back on the bubble). Joey Brackets from ESPN has been in the bottom 50% of bracketologists the last years. A-10 is almost lock for 5 teams and headed for 6 pretty safe teams according to dance card methodology (which has been perfect the last 2 years).

Dance card one of the most accurate. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm -- has Xavier safely in and Georgetown barely in. Providence, St. John's, Marquette all within striking distance. Palm also much more accurate.

Big East 3-5 bids (Creighton and Nova) locks; X in right now and barring loss + every other bubble team going on a huge winning streak they are in; BE good shot to get at least one more team in if Georgetown, St. John's, or Marequette go on winning streak and some other bubbles lose.

[DudeAnon]

Indiana fell out of the discussion, but Dayton jumped right back onto the bubble. It looks more and more like the A-10 will get a minimum of 5 teams in and a possible 6.

Dayton was barely the on right side of the bubble before St. Louis and now is safely on the right side of the bubble after St. Louis (so not jumping back on the bubble). Joey Brackets from ESPN has been in the bottom 50% of bracketologists the last years. A-10 is almost lock for 5 teams and headed for 6 pretty safe teams according to dance card methodology (which has been perfect the last 2 years).

Dance card one of the most accurate. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm -- has Xavier safely in and Georgetown barely in. Providence, St. John's, Marquette all within striking distance. Palm also much more accurate.

Big East 3-5 bids (Creighton and Nova) locks; X in right now and barring loss + every other bubble team going on a huge winning streak they are in; BE good shot to get at least one more team in if Georgetown, St. John's, or Marequette go on winning streak and some other bubbles lose.

I like your confidence man, I know us X fans are not as optimistic. Honestly, I will be rooting for Dayton to go deep in the tourney so maybe the animosity can calm down and some of Dayton's crazier fans can relish in their own success more than Xavier's failures.

[hoyahooligan]

even by your list, which is very Big East optimistic, 23 at large bids are gone... leaving only 13

I'd argue teams like Baylor, Oklahoma St are virtual locks- as long as they don't lose to TCU or Texas Tech, they are in. Same goes with Kansas St quite frankly. Big 12 will have 7 in.

And you know #52 won't make it as there WILL be a conference tourney upset where a .500 team gets in, bumping the last guy on the list. I wouldn't want to be #51 either. I'd want my RPI to be mid 40's to breathe a little easier, 40 or below to be able to sit back and enjoy Selection Sunday

I wouldn't worry too much about that this year as far as the one-bid leagues are concerned. Some years we get strong mid majors who are going to the tournament even if they are upset in their league tournament. But we don't have that this year; this year's mid majors from the one- bid leagues are almost universally weak in wins over the top 50.

We have last year's precedent of Southern Mississippi being passed over despite having a #31 RPI. Their problem was that they hadn't beaten anyone in the top 75. That's a similar situation this year to teams like UW Green Bay, Toledo, North Dakota State, and Southern Mississippi this year.

There is always the possibility that one of the multi-bid leagues is won by someone who was not otherwise going to the tournament. But who it affects remains to be seen. The list is very volatile with positions constantly shifting. The bottom line is that there are currently about a dozen or so teams currently in line for at-large bids but whose fate is not heat certain because they have to continue to win to hold onto their spot. If I were any of them, I would worry more about taking care of my own business than worrying about conference championship upsets.

What the list shows is that there are at least 13 teams who still have work to do and who don't have anything locked up at this point while there aren't least 23 schools who likely do have their at-large bids locked up.

I agree. I really don't see a lot of potential bid stealers out there.

MVC if Wichita St loses
WCC if Gonzaga or BYU don't win
MWC if SDSU or New Mexico dont' win

That's really it.

There are some other potentials:
CUSA: Southern Miss RPI 36 (but only 1 top 50 win)
MAC: Toledo RPI 38 ( but no top 50 wins)
Summit: North Dakota St RPI 41 (but no top 50 wins)
Horizon: Green Bay RPI 51 (but only 1 top 50 win)
OVC: Belmont RPI 58 (but only 1 top 50 win)

I don't see any of those teams making the cut if they fall in their conference tournaments.

[tsmithohio1234]

45. Xavier - Needs 1 more win to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 3 wins vs the top 50.
44. Dayton - Needs 2 more wins to be a lock for the top 52. Currently have 5 wins vs the top 50.

Why dos XU need one more win and UD needs two ?