How many more wins each team needs to get in

[stever20]

According to team rankings here is how likely the BE bubble teams are to make the tournament based on their total wins at the end of the year:

Georgetown: 18 wins 32% chance
19 wins 70.5% chance
20 wins 83.4% chance

Xavier: 20 wins: 29.9% chance
21 wins: 74.5% chance
22 wins: 94.1% chance

Providence: 20 wins: 25.2% chance
21 wins: 64.1% chance
22 wins: 86.1% chance

St. Johns: 20 wins: 7.4% chance
21 wins: 34.6% chance
22 wins: 80% chance

Pretty much what we've been saying. Think Georgetown may be a bit low, if they beat Nova and St John's loses to Marquette(giving Georgetown the 6 seed)
Xavier, Providence both really need 1 win to get in(PC may need 2 if things fell really wrong). St John's needs 3 wins to get in.

[Bill Marsh]

Xavier needs to win a game more than anything so that they can prove they can win without Matt Stainbrook.

While I agree, I think even if he was healthy they still would have needed the win, especially with all the other bubble teams picking up wins.

Most of those bubble teams are going to turn around and lose when they need to win. It's just the way of the world for bubble teams and it happens every year.

God point. Life remains volatile and uncertain for teams on the bubble and will continue to be so for the next 10 days.

[Bill Marsh]

Agree with Georgetown- except I think if we beat Nova, finish 7th, and beat DePaul/Butler, we're in, no matter how we do vs Creighton/Nova in the BET. I just think the tough part is actually beating Nova. Not saying we can't, but they're a darn good team, playing for a #1 seed. They're that for a reason....

Xavier I really don't think they're in if they lose out. Too many teams winning around them- not to mention if a team or two steals a bid.

Are they really playing for a #1 seed? I don't see it. They just don't have enough quality wins imo. Villanova 25-3 RPI 4 SOS 25 Top 50 wins 4 Top 25 wins 1 no bad losses. Just doesn't cut it IMO in terms of quality wins. Heck Wichita St has 3 top 50 wins and 1 top 25 win and people are up in arms about them possibly getting a #1 seed and they're undefeated.

Arizona- 28-2 RPI 1; SOS 6; Top 50 wins 10; Top 25 wins 4; no bad losses
Florida 28-2 RPI 3; SOS 24; Top 50 wins 6; Top 25 wins 2; no bad losses
Kansas 23-7 RPI 2; SOS 1; Top 50 wins 12; Top 25 wins 5; no bad losses
Wisconsin 25-5 RPI 5; SOS 2; Top 50 wins 8; Top 25 wins 5; 1 bad loss( 131 Northwestern)

are all clearly better than Nova's profile IMO.

Michigan 22-7 RPI 10 SOS 5 Top 50 wins 10 top 25 wins 3 1 bad loss(160 Charlotte) is debatably better as well.

Heck I might even prefer Creighton's resume to theirs despite the 3 extra losses when balanced with the 2 poundings they gave Nova.
Creighton 23-6 RPI 7 SOS 15 Top 50 wins 6 Top 25 wins 2 no bad losses

Yes I take Nova over the 3 ACC chumps of Cuse, Duke, and UVA, but I still think they don't really have a shot at jumping to the 1 line. I'd still take Arizona, Florida, Kansas, and Wisonsin over them even if none of them won their conference tournaments and Nova won theirs.

I think you're splitting hairs here. The top 50 is constantly in flux. It's a cut off at an arbitrary number. Right now Providence is #52 and Georgetown in #56. Are Villanova's 3 wins over them not every bit as much quality wins as Wisconsin's top 50 wins? Assuming a win over Xavier tonight, and Villanova's up to 8 as well. And they don't have a Green Bay on their list.

Villanova is in fact fighting for a 1-seed.

[DudeAnon]

Honestly, we get 2 or 3 bids max.

[Bill Marsh]

Honestly, we get 2 or 3 bids max.

It's not over 'til it's over.

[DudeAnon]

Honestly, we get 2 or 3 bids max.

It's not over 'til it's over.

True, X is making me pessimistic.

[ta111]

Not good for X. They are in deep trouble. If Providence loses to Creighton may be looking at 2 bids.

[Bill Marsh]

Honestly, we get 2 or 3 bids max.

It's not over 'til it's over.

True, X is making me pessimistic.

A win in the Big East tournament likely puts Xavier in. If they lose, they strengthen the hand of someone else in the conference and give them a chance to get in.

[DudeAnon]

I hope your right, just depressing finish to the season for X fans. And sucks to see conference in a shitty position bid-wise.

[ruechalgrin]

Xavier is safely in right now, and Georgetown right on the bubble.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance card has been really accurate the last 2 years going 100% -- will change up to last game of the season which includes conference tournament.

BTW, I don't buy X win a game in Big East and in/out. It really depends on what other bubble teams do, but I think X is safely in right now as I believe in the dance card methodology. And team rankings.com is nice, but I have yet to see how accurate it is and from what I see comparing it to dance card with a huge history of accuracy, teamrankings.com looks way off.