Sat 3/8 Providence at Creighton

[WaitingPatiently]

Whom have they played in an up tempo game?

Off the top of my head both Nova, the first X. If memory if correct Arizona St started that way, but slowed down because the game was decided with 10 min left.

[XUFan09]

Whom have they played in an up tempo game?

Xavier the first time around, a 78 possession game (and 6-point win). Scorching fast pace, partly because the teams were destroying each other in transition offense, Creighton from deep and Xavier driving into the lane. Villanova and @Xavier were both a little above the D1 average at 69 and 68 possessions.

Creighton reminds me of Xavier in that both are patient halfcourt teams (reducing their total possessions per game), but both will seize the transition opportunities when they arise, usually off misses on the other end. A team can play up-tempo with Creighton, but they have to do it right and against everything the players have been taught about transition defense.

In normal transition defense, the main goal is "stop the ball." Run back toward the basket and stop the player driving into the lane. Most guards driving in are trying to score at the rim. Creighton's guards, however, are only probing the defense, trying to force their opponents to collapse on the interior before they kick it out to shooters running down the side. It's a nice decoy. The first time around, Xavier got burned by this multiple times by doing what comes naturally in transition. The second time around they didn't buy the drive by the guard and stayed out on the shooters, denying Creighton their best opportunities. It forced Creighton into a halfcourt offense, where Dougie McBuckets is the only one who can consistently score. They are patient partly because they have to be.

The first round vs. Xavier, Creighton scored 1.22 points per possession. The second round, Creighton scored 1.01. There were other factors, but denying them transition opportunities was a huge part of that disparity.

[XUFan09]

Whom have they played in an up tempo game?

Off the top of my head both Nova, the first X. If memory if correct Arizona St started that way, but slowed down because the game was decided with 10 min left.

That game still managed to go to 68 possessions, a little above the D1 average, despite that slowdown. The San Diego State loss was 69 possessions; some quick possessions might have been tacked on at the end if there was a series of fouling followed by quick shots. I didn't see the game so I don't know.

Xavier the first time around was very fast, right up there with the really fast games Creighton played against cupcakes near the start of the year. Both teams were loving transition and there were some quick possessions at the end when Xavier almost made a crazy comeback.

[Bill Marsh]

From what I can see, Creighton has been in very few truly up tempo games. The first Xavier game was and it was a 6 point win. The North Carolina game was 2 years ago and it was a 14 point loss. I'm not seeing Creighton killing anyone in these games. The Villanova games were not.

[Sumdumguy]

I think there is a balance that needs to be achieved when you play CU. An up and down game is not what CU wants. They want to play fast on offense and exploit the recovery of the defense, but they need to make their shots because when they miss the other team has the chance to exploit their weakness, which is a fairly slow and very under-sized defense. Rebounds are the biggest issue when CU plays PC, the higher the rebound count, the higher the chance PC wins. CU is good at getting in position to get rebounds, but PC is so damn athletic that they can make up for being out of position by jumping 6-8 inches higher than CU. if PC overplays on defense, CU will find the open man to knock down shots, but if PC plays solid help defense, without selling out, they have a very good chance. I don't care what the spread is on this game, I wouldn't touch it. Both teams have the ability to exploit the other's weakness, shooting pct vs rebounding. Your guess is as good, if not better, than mine.

[sciencejay]

I think most people assume high tempo because of the Jays' high points per game numbers instead of actual possessions per game. The Jays have had success getting high percentage, long range looks in more of a secondary transition. We've put over 50 points up in eight different halves this season--Alcorn St. (both), Nebraska (1st), Xavier (2nd), Butler (1st), Vill (1st), Vill (both). It's not due to a ton of possessions because we have ridiculously high points per possession numbers.

The Jays do like to push it, but not like the Suns of the 2000s. When we get a defensive rebound, you've got Wragge/McD trailing the play, Manigat setting up in the corner and Chatman/Brooks pushing the ball toward the goal. When the defense collapses to protect the goal, several guys are wide open for threes. The Jays are less successful when their opponents shoot high percentage and/or get offensive rebounds because then we can't do our kind of break. Of course, we're also less successful when we don't hit open shots (as of late).

Full court pressure is an interesting strategy against us. We have a hard time inbounding the ball (quite incredible the trouble we have, really) against tough man pressure, but once Chatman gets the ball inbounds, he's extremely difficult to contain, and he gets the ball up the court quickly with his eyes on which of his shooters is going to be the most open. Full court pressure might cause the Jays problems, but as Bill mentioned, I'm not sure Providence can do that because of their short rotation.

[Bill Marsh]

I think most people assume high tempo because of the Jays' high points per game numbers instead of actual possessions per game. The Jays have had success getting high percentage, long range looks in more of a secondary transition. We've put over 50 points up in eight different halves this season--Alcorn St. (both), Nebraska (1st), Xavier (2nd), Butler (1st), Vill (1st), Vill (both). It's not due to a ton of possessions because we have ridiculously high points per possession numbers.

The Jays do like to push it, but not like the Suns of the 2000s. When we get a defensive rebound, you've got Wragge/McD trailing the play, Manigat setting up in the corner and Chatman/Brooks pushing the ball toward the goal. When the defense collapses to protect the goal, several guys are wide open for threes. The Jays are less successful when their opponents shoot high percentage and/or get offensive rebounds because then we can't do our kind of break. Of course, we're also less successful when we don't hit open shots (as of late).

Full court pressure is an interesting strategy against us. We have a hard time inbounding the ball (quite incredible the trouble we have, really) against tough man pressure, but once Chatman gets the ball inbounds, he's extremely difficult to contain, and he gets the ball up the court quickly with his eyes on which of his shooters is going to be the most open. Full court pressure might cause the Jays problems, but as Bill mentioned, I'm not sure Providence can do that because of their short rotation.

Thank you for the analysis, Science Jay. While I don't see PC applying full court pressure, I'm curious to see if they might apply half court pressure such as a 1-3-1 trap. While CU's excellent passing would certainly find some open 3's, it could result in hurried shots and turnovers. It might also limit the cuts and dribble drives to the basket that McDermott & others like to take. For obvious reasons, no one plays zone against them, but zone pressure would be different.

[sciencejay]

Point well taken. Half court pressure could cause us problems, especially when considering our tendency of late to hold the ball more rather than pass quickly to keep the defense moving. At Villanova, they cut the lead to 13 at half by trapping on the sidelines, and we had several terrible possessions (turnovers, bad shots late in the clock, etc), so I was expecting that to turn into a dog fight. We did make good adjustments (and hopefully would again if PC does something like that too), so we were able to keep the momentum in the second half.

Another thing is how the first half goes. CU is 1-6 in games where we trailed at halftime (St. Joe's being the only win). 22-0 when we lead at half. I hope we're able to get it going early, get the crowd into it and keep PC at bay. PC doesn't ever seem to quit, so I won't feel good until we're up and the game clock runs out.

[EMT]

PC is going to play the same way they did last time. Defend the 3 pt line and force the Jays to take tough 2s and get back in transition. If the Jays hit tough 2s all night, tip your hat to them.

[jays911]

You heard it here first. The crowd will be the difference. I have two pregame parties, the first at 3. The crowd will be loose and loud. Welcome to Omaha. People here are crazy. Just ask them in St Louis.