Sat 3/8 Providence at Creighton

[Jet915]

We've been shooting it like crap the last couple games but we tend to shoot better at home so hopefully that will help but you never know...

[OutlawWales]

I'd find it interesting if he were to press Creighton the entire game to speed it up, something Creighton doesn't want to do. They don't really have the depth to press the whole game, so maybe he plays half court ball pressure the whole game with zones like a 1-3-1. Creighton passes really well, so it might just be an invitation for them to get open 3's unless PC can turn them over and force them into rushing their shots.

Bottom line is that anything they do against Creighton may well be a preview of what they're ring to use in the tournament that they haven't been doing much of during the season. It might simply be more of the 2-3 one we saw last night. Their big men have been getting in foul trouble and they have to find a way to keep them in the game longer. The 2-3 did that last night.

Uh - speeding the game up is exactly what Creighton wants. That's where they excel, in up and down and high possession games. Providence win the first game by slowing the game waaay down and reducing the number if possessions.

[Bill Marsh]

I'd find it interesting if he were to press Creighton the entire game to speed it up, something Creighton doesn't want to do. They don't really have the depth to press the whole game, so maybe he plays half court ball pressure the whole game with zones like a 1-3-1. Creighton passes really well, so it might just be an invitation for them to get open 3's unless PC can turn them over and force them into rushing their shots.

Bottom line is that anything they do against Creighton may well be a preview of what they're ring to use in the tournament that they haven't been doing much of during the season. It might simply be more of the 2-3 one we saw last night. Their big men have been getting in foul trouble and they have to find a way to keep them in the game longer. The 2-3 did that last night.

Uh - speeding the game up is exactly what Creighton wants. That's where they excel, in up and down and high possession games. Providence win the first game by slowing the game waaay down and reducing the number if possessions.

I don't think that Creighton wants to play against pressure. That's how they lost the San Diego State game. They want to walk the ball up and set up their offense in the half court. A game in which they have to run will cost them their legs, which will affect their 3-point shooting.

Providence slowed it way down in the last game? I'm looking at PC putting up 81 points. I don't know how you do that in a slow down game. Creighton got 53 shots; they average 55 in conference play. If Providence was trying to limit their possessions, they weren't very effective.

As for Creighton wanting to speed the game up, they average 65 possessions per game in conference play, which is considered a moderate pace according to Ken Pomeroy's system, and is not close to what a fast paced team would average (74-82).

Providence played a half court game in that matchup, but they definitely didn't take the air out of the ball. Contrast the Providence game with the recent Seton Hall and Marquette games in which Creighton was limited to 43 and 45 shots respectively.

[WaitingPatiently]

I'd find it interesting if he were to press Creighton the entire game to speed it up, something Creighton doesn't want to do. They don't really have the depth to press the whole game, so maybe he plays half court ball pressure the whole game with zones like a 1-3-1. Creighton passes really well, so it might just be an invitation for them to get open 3's unless PC can turn them over and force them into rushing their shots.

Bottom line is that anything they do against Creighton may well be a preview of what they're ring to use in the tournament that they haven't been doing much of during the season. It might simply be more of the 2-3 one we saw last night. Their big men have been getting in foul trouble and they have to find a way to keep them in the game longer. The 2-3 did that last night.

Uh - speeding the game up is exactly what Creighton wants. That's where they excel, in up and down and high possession games. Providence win the first game by slowing the game waaay down and reducing the number if possessions.

I don't think that Creighton wants to play against pressure. That's how they lost the San Diego State game. They want to walk the ball up and set up their offense in the half court. A game in which they have to run will cost them their legs, which will affect their 3-point shooting.

Providence slowed it way down in the last game? I'm looking at PC putting up 81 points. I don't know how you do that in a slow down game. Creighton got 53 shots; they average 55 in conference play. If Providence was trying to limit their possessions, they weren't very effective.

As for Creighton wanting to speed the game up, they average 65 possessions per game in conference play, which is considered a moderate pace according to Ken Pomeroy's system, and is not close to what a fast paced team would average (74-82).

Providence played a half court game in that matchup, but they definitely didn't take the air out of the ball. Contrast the Providence game with the recent Seton Hall and Marquette games in which Creighton was limited to 43 and 45 shots respectively.

Bill, this couldn't be more wrong on so many levels. Look at their loses. Teams made shots against them, had offensive rebounds, and ground the pace. Caused a more 'panicked' shot selection instead of good ball movement on the other side. The point totals are not always indicative of pace. SDSU ground it down, but the volume of fouls called inflated the points and possessions. GW, Providence, SJU, X, and G'town all were similar in makeup. Their point totals weren't 'low' because of a high percentage of 3's made and/or lots of FT.

Creighton does not want to play fast purely in the sense of high possession games. They are not gifted enough on D to play fast in that sense. They do want to play fast in transition on O. See Villanova and their problems trying to play a fast pace with pressure. Leads to lots of wide open shots when they break it. Running up and down the court will play into their hands. And uncontested shots go down at a higher percentage for them than most anyone else.

Creighton wants to play solid D in the sense of forcing you to take the shot they want you to. To do that and get out in transition they have to have D rebounding. If a team makes shots and pressures them, they don't handle that all that well. See the SJU headaches. SJU gave them fits on the offensive glass and then used pressure after eventually scoring the ball to keep them from running so they couldn't get out in transition. But if you miss and Creighton rebounds it, they will get up the floor quick and exploit any breakdowns in transition.

Judging a game's tempo based on shots isn't accurate. You can have a high possession game with the same amount of shots as a low possession game. FT and TO impact that. The @Marquette game was not a low possession game, but did have a lot of FT hence a misleading shot count (the amount of fouls called also bloated the possessions). The Providence game was a lower possession game, but far less FT and very few TO so the shots were misleading the other way.

In a nutshell, you don't want to press them and speed it up. They will kill you. You want to control the glass, and eliminate transition. If you press, you press to slow it down. That's when they struggle most. If you pressure them to speed up the game, you'll get your doors blown off.

[WaitingPatiently]

Creighton is also not a great half-court O. In fact I'd say they are average. They are elite in transition and moving the ball. They never walk the ball up after a D rebound. They do walk it up after a make when the D has gotten back to setup.

[jays911]

The difference will be the home venue. The Clink has become something special this year. The crowd has really dialed it up. It is crazy. Tix next to mine are on Craigslist for $650 apiece. The owner won't get that, but it is an indication of how crazy it has gotten. The crowd will be intense.

[Bill Marsh]

Uh - speeding the game up is exactly what Creighton wants. That's where they excel, in up and down and high possession games. Providence win the first game by slowing the game waaay down and reducing the number if possessions.

I don't think that Creighton wants to play against pressure. That's how they lost the San Diego State game. They want to walk the ball up and set up their offense in the half court. A game in which they have to run will cost them their legs, which will affect their 3-point shooting.

Providence slowed it way down in the last game? I'm looking at PC putting up 81 points. I don't know how you do that in a slow down game. Creighton got 53 shots; they average 55 in conference play. If Providence was trying to limit their possessions, they weren't very effective.

As for Creighton wanting to speed the game up, they average 65 possessions per game in conference play, which is considered a moderate pace according to Ken Pomeroy's system, and is not close to what a fast paced team would average (74-82).

Providence played a half court game in that matchup, but they definitely didn't take the air out of the ball. Contrast the Providence game with the recent Seton Hall and Marquette games in which Creighton was limited to 43 and 45 shots respectively.

Bill, this couldn't be more wrong on so many levels. Look at their loses. Teams made shots against them, had offensive rebounds, and ground the pace. Caused a more 'panicked' shot selection instead of good ball movement on the other side. The point totals are not always indicative of pace. SDSU ground it down, but the volume of fouls called inflated the points and possessions. GW, Providence, SJU, X, and G'town all were similar in makeup. Their point totals weren't 'low' because of a high percentage of 3's made and/or lots of FT.

Creighton does not want to play fast purely in the sense of high possession games. They are not gifted enough on D to play fast in that sense. They do want to play fast in transition on O. See Villanova and their problems trying to play a fast pace with pressure. Leads to lots of wide open shots when they break it. Running up and down the court will play into their hands. And uncontested shots go down at a higher percentage for them than most anyone else.

Creighton wants to play solid D in the sense of forcing you to take the shot they want you to. To do that and get out in transition they have to have D rebounding. If a team makes shots and pressures them, they don't handle that all that well. See the SJU headaches. SJU gave them fits on the offensive glass and then used pressure after eventually scoring the ball to keep them from running so they couldn't get out in transition. But if you miss and Creighton rebounds it, they will get up the floor quick and exploit any breakdowns in transition.

Judging a game's tempo based on shots isn't accurate. You can have a high possession game with the same amount of shots as a low possession game. FT and TO impact that. The @Marquette game was not a low possession game, but did have a lot of FT hence a misleading shot count (the amount of fouls called also bloated the possessions). The Providence game was a lower possession game, but far less FT and very few TO so the shots were misleading the other way.

In a nutshell, you don't want to press them and speed it up. They will kill you. You want to control the glass, and eliminate transition. If you press, you press to slow it down. That's when they struggle most. If you pressure them to speed up the game, you'll get your doors blown off.

No argument with anything you say. All solid points.

I can only tell you that as a coach, I'd love to pressure them both on offense and defense. I think that in an up tempo game, they'd have their tongues hanging out by the 4th quarter if not sooner. Once the legs go, so does the perimeter shooting. As for them killing anyone, they have to make their 3's to do that, which they haven't been doing lately. After falling behind early, San Diego State pressed them, got them to rush their shots, and got back in the game, eventually winning it. It wasn't just the disparity in FT's. It was also SDSU's ability to combine pressure with offensive rebounding.

As you say, Creighton has to rebound to run their transition game. Given the fact that they go with 3 guards most of the time, they strike me as being vulnerable to being beaten off the boards. Everyone knew coming into this season that they would be vulnerable because of the loss of Echenique without anyone to replace him, but I don't think that area has really been exploited as it might have been. It may yet prove to be their Achilles heel.

BTW, the Marquette game was a 65 possession game. The Providence game was a 61 possession game. So, you're right about the shot attempts being misleading. But you can't call the Providence game allow possession game and then say the Marquette game wasn't. The 2 games were within a few possessions of each other - and as you say, the possessions in the Marquette game were bloated by all the fouls.

[Bill Marsh]

We've been shooting it like crap the last couple games but we tend to shoot better at home so hopefully that will help but you never know...

Teams get worn down over the increasingly long seasons that colleges play these days. Add that to the fact that Creighton has the longest travel of any team in the league. I agree that Creighton shoots better at home, but I think it's more than that. I suspect that they're getting worn down.

You can see it in their 3 point shooting. They've had 5 games this year in which they've shot under 30% from 3. Four of them have come in the past 6 weeks. In the last 12 games, they've shot 39% from 3, which is very good. But it's not the dominating 43% that they had been shooting in the 17 games before that. The off nights have been coming more frequently and it hasn't just been on the road that their 3 point shots haven't been falling - 28% vs DePaul at home, 33% vs Georgetown at home.

Anyway, after this weekend, their won't be any more home games.

[WaitingPatiently]

However you want to say it, at the end of the day if you take away as much transition as possible and make them a half-court O you're more likely to be successful. If you play a way that gets more transition it hasn't worked out well for anyone the last 3 seasons. I can't think of a single game in that time where they lost when allowed to get O going in transition throughout a game. They can't change what they are at this point. So it'll come down to shot making and match ups. They miss, they'll be out. They're hitting, they'll keep playing. Shocking.

This late sputtering will probably cause many to have a pessimistic view of their chances in the post-season. But there are two things that will be overlooked when evaluating/predicting them. They will most every night have the best player on the floor. Thats usually a key ingredient in March. A very high percentage of the dance is won by the team with the best player on the floor. Second is that no matter how much film a team watches, and what their plan is...until they play against this O they don't "really" understand. They're faster than it seems on film and the fact they never stop cutting is always under-recognized for "new" opponents. 8-1 the first go round was partly attributable to that. Things like thinking you've got Wragge covered, but not realizing just how close you have to be. The second time around the opponents have experienced it, and they handle it better. In the dance, there are very few opponents who will have experienced it.

BTW, the only loss of the first half was against the only coach who had faced this team before. Cooley coached Fairfield against them in the CBI/CIT (whatever it was) in Omaha when this group of seniors were freshmen. Granted that was 3 years ago and the team isn't the exact same, but Cooley had an idea of what playing their O was like.

[Bill Marsh]

Whom have they played in an up tempo game?