How many more wins each team needs to get in

[SJHooper]

18 wins just won't do it. G'Town has more work to do than SJ. A difference in 2 wins this late in the year is a major difference. G'Town is still below .500 in conference. I could understand all the hype about their chances if they had 19 wins and at least a .500 record in conference right now. Not with 17. Even if they win vs. Nova I think they need a few more wins to secure it. Gotta get to 20.

SJ's path is easier. Marquette will be at home but we dominated the last game. When we run into other teams who can't shoot, we can dominate. I think they are the only other team in the conference that shoots as bad or worse than we do. That would be HUGE to get to 20 wins and they could essentially look at the 1st BET game as the game that can get them their bid.

I don't think SJ will do it...they are snakebitten. But I don't see G'Town getting in without running the table to get 20 wins. To get in with under 20 some other teams would have to collapse. Even 20 is questionable these days and 21 is the bar.

Do you seriously think that St. John's is "snake bitten"? What does that even mean?

St. John's fans have an doom and gloom mentality because we've suffered through 10 years of bad basketball. Our fans seem to think we are the only team that suffers through some of the things that we've gone through. These things (non-qualifiers, injuries, suspensions, transfers) happen to most every program. We just haven't handled them very well. Providence has gone through so much in the last couple of years and they have handled them pretty well and are in position for a bid. We have to stop complaining and handle our business on the court.

In all honesty though how is it not luck when PC has SJ and Marquette about to win the game and they send their worst ballhandlers to receive the in bound pass only to get tied up and be PC ball? They got 2 crucial wins that way. That's the kind of luck we just don't have. You can argue we made a huge run and that's an example of luck but I think it was just the team finally putting it together with a set rotation.

I'm already looking to next year because it's a lost cause. PC is in position to control their own destiny, Xavier is already in and so is Nova and Creighton. Next year Creighton loses everyone, PC loses Cotton, Seton Hall loses all their studs (but brings in some good talent but still unproven and inexperienced), etc. With all that being said, there is absolutely zero reason SJ should miss the tourney again next year. None. I said this before and I'm sticking to it: if this team doesn't make it next year I hope Lav gets fired and I'm done as a fan until we prove we can truly compete again to match our talent level.

[gofriars08]

TeamRankings.com has a nice little Bracketology projector. They have Providence at a 56% chance of a bid, Georgetown as a 44% chance, and St. John's at a 24% chance. Xavier is fairly safe at 71% now, but they need at least one more win.

Perhaps more interestingly, here's the odds based on how many wins these teams wind up with:

Providence:
20 wins - 27%
21 wins - 67%
22 wins - 86%
23+ wins - 100%

Georgetown:
17 wins - 7%
18 wins - 35%
19 wins - 73%
20 wins - 86%
21+ wins - 100%

St. John's:
19 wins - 1%
20 wins - 8%
21 wins - 38%
22 wins - 83%
23 wins - 100%

Xavier:
20 wins - 31%
21 wins - 76%
22 wins - 94%
23+ wins - 100%

Now, this doesn't fully capture what the odds are based on what teams they beat to get to those various wins - for example, I would imagine PC's odds of making it are much higher at 21 wins if their 21st win is @ Creighton vs. neutral court in the BET vs. Marquette, while same goes for Georgetown beating Nova vs. picking up win #18 in the BET.

Basically, the magic numbers for all these teams are:

Xavier - 21
Georgetown - 19
Providence - 21/22; IMO it is 21 if they win @ Creighton and 22 if not
St. John's - 22

[SJHooper]

TeamRankings.com has a nice little Bracketology projector. They have Providence at a 56% chance of a bid, Georgetown as a 44% chance, and St. John's at a 24% chance. Xavier is fairly safe at 71% now, but they need at least one more win.

Perhaps more interestingly, here's the odds based on how many wins these teams wind up with:

Providence:
20 wins - 27%
21 wins - 67%
22 wins - 86%
23+ wins - 100%

Georgetown:
17 wins - 7%
18 wins - 35%
19 wins - 73%
20 wins - 86%
21+ wins - 100%

St. John's:
19 wins - 1%
20 wins - 8%
21 wins - 38%
22 wins - 83%
23 wins - 100%

Xavier:
20 wins - 31%
21 wins - 76%
22 wins - 94%
23+ wins - 100%

Now, this doesn't fully capture what the odds are based on what teams they beat to get to those various wins - for example, I would imagine PC's odds of making it are much higher at 21 wins if their 21st win is @ Creighton vs. neutral court in the BET vs. Marquette, while same goes for Georgetown beating Nova vs. picking up win #18 in the BET.

Basically, the magic numbers for all these teams are:

Xavier - 21
Georgetown - 19
Providence - 21/22; IMO it is 21 if they win @ Creighton and 22 if not
St. John's - 22

SJ would have been in PC's shoes if we could take back that inbound and run the clock out and that Xavier game KILLED us. Killed us. Of course Stainbrook goes down after we play them. No breaks for us. Very tough season. Going on a huge comeback tour only to barely get squeezed out at the last minute is gut-wrenching. I'd rather lose every Big East game than go through this. Day late and a dollar short. Some SJ fans are still happy that we made a comeback at all after the horrid start, but IMO our standards shouldn't change mid season. This is a team that needed to go to the tourney to get credibility again and once again they failed.

If any team has to make the tourney over us though I want it to be PC. They deserve it after all they've been through with players and how long they have waited. They will also be important in making the rest of the country realize that they stepped up in the new conference. With that said, if we don't make the tourney I'm going into hibernation mode. Someone please wake me up when (if) we make the tourney again.

[billyjack]

TeamRankings.com has a nice little Bracketology projector. They have Providence at a 56% chance of a bid, Georgetown as a 44% chance, and St. John's at a 24% chance. Xavier is fairly safe at 71% now, but they need at least one more win.

Perhaps more interestingly, here's the odds based on how many wins these teams wind up with:

Providence:
20 wins - 27%
21 wins - 67%
22 wins - 86%
23+ wins - 100%

Georgetown:
17 wins - 7%
18 wins - 35%
19 wins - 73%
20 wins - 86%
21+ wins - 100%

St. John's:
19 wins - 1%
20 wins - 8%
21 wins - 38%
22 wins - 83%
23 wins - 100%

Xavier:
20 wins - 31%
21 wins - 76%
22 wins - 94%
23+ wins - 100%

Now, this doesn't fully capture what the odds are based on what teams they beat to get to those various wins - for example, I would imagine PC's odds of making it are much higher at 21 wins if their 21st win is @ Creighton vs. neutral court in the BET vs. Marquette, while same goes for Georgetown beating Nova vs. picking up win #18 in the BET.

Basically, the magic numbers for all these teams are:

Xavier - 21
Georgetown - 19
Providence - 21/22; IMO it is 21 if they win @ Creighton and 22 if not
St. John's - 22

Good information.

For PC, their schedule is:
at Creighton
vs Marquette or St John's at MSG.
then:
vs Villanova at MSG.

If the committee makes PC have to reach 22 wins, that means either win at #9 15-0 Creighton, or vs #8 Villanova in the BET semis. Otherwise, some team from some freakin clown-conference could go over us? I would hope the committee would use common sense at that point.

[stever20]

TeamRankings.com has a nice little Bracketology projector. They have Providence at a 56% chance of a bid, Georgetown as a 44% chance, and St. John's at a 24% chance. Xavier is fairly safe at 71% now, but they need at least one more win.

Perhaps more interestingly, here's the odds based on how many wins these teams wind up with:

Providence:
20 wins - 27%
21 wins - 67%
22 wins - 86%
23+ wins - 100%

Georgetown:
17 wins - 7%
18 wins - 35%
19 wins - 73%
20 wins - 86%
21+ wins - 100%

St. John's:
19 wins - 1%
20 wins - 8%
21 wins - 38%
22 wins - 83%
23 wins - 100%

Xavier:
20 wins - 31%
21 wins - 76%
22 wins - 94%
23+ wins - 100%

Now, this doesn't fully capture what the odds are based on what teams they beat to get to those various wins - for example, I would imagine PC's odds of making it are much higher at 21 wins if their 21st win is @ Creighton vs. neutral court in the BET vs. Marquette, while same goes for Georgetown beating Nova vs. picking up win #18 in the BET.

Basically, the magic numbers for all these teams are:

Xavier - 21
Georgetown - 19
Providence - 21/22; IMO it is 21 if they win @ Creighton and 22 if not
St. John's - 22

Good information.

For PC, their schedule is:
at Creighton
vs Marquette or St John's at MSG.
then:
vs Villanova at MSG.

If the committee makes PC have to reach 22 wins, that means either win at #9 15-0 Creighton, or vs #8 Villanova in the BET semis. Otherwise, some team from some freakin clown-conference could go over us? I would hope the committee would use common sense at that point.

well, if you look right now, about 25-26 at large spots are pretty much locks now. Leaves about 10-11 to go- but with a lot of really good teams out there. PC is going to be on the low end of RPI and top 50 wins. They would be like #10 or 11 on that list. Likely- but hoping that no bids are stolen, or unexpected things not gettnig auto bid but solidifying spots. Win over Creighton or Nova would guarantee their spot.

[XUFan09]

BPI: SJ wins
RPI: G'Town wins
SOS: G'Town wins
Overall record: SJ wins
Conference record: SJ wins
Top 50 wins: G'Town wins
Head to head: Blew each other out (wash)

BPI: Doesn't matter to Selection Committee.
SOS: Matters, especially non-conference SOS for bubble teams.
Overall record: Doesn't matter.
Conference record: Matters, especially for bubble teams.
Top 50 wins: Matters.
Head-to-head: Doesn't matter.

Concerning 20 wins, I'm just going to emphasize this for everyone: Correlation does not equal causation.

Overall record does not matter, but it's unlikely that a team puts together all the necessary components for a tournament-worthy resume without reaching that mark or falling just short of 19. Unlikely does not mean impossible though, and Georgetown is a candidate to be one of the exceptions.

If you beat RPI 100+ teams, the Committee just does not care. Georgetown faced seven in the non-con, three 200+; St. John's faced ten, five 200+. If you beat RPI 51-100 teams, the Committee cares some. Wins against other potential tournament teams (RPI top 50) matter so much more, though, and Georgetown has a good record in that regard. Stever isn't just emphasizing it because it makes Georgetown look good but also because the Selection Committee cares a lot about that record. What is particularly good for their resume is that three of these wins occurred on a neutral court (two of which weren't just good wins but "marquee wins"), and one of the home wins (Creighton) occurred against a top 10 team, keeping it as a marquee win despite the familiar venue. This last point about Creighton is also true for St. John's, but it's the only notable win they have, save a road win against Providence.

Georgetown has to beat Villanova though. Overall record doesn't matter, but conference record does (particularly for bubble teams), and their resume isn't outstanding enough otherwise to make up for a sub-.500 record in conference, even in the RPI #3 conference. If they finish at .500 though, they'll improve to 3-7 on the road, which is by no means good, but there simply aren't good road records among bubble teams. They'll also notch a ridiculously good win, because it's a top 10 team on the road. That gets added to two marquee neutral wins, a marquee home win, a good neutral win, a good home win (weaker value), and maybe one more good home win with Providence (still weaker value). A non-conference SOS ranked 25th definitely helps their cause.

If they win a BET game in addition (just to avoid the bad loss, assuming they don't get the 6 seed), they'll probably feel pretty comfortable at 19-11. If they get the 6 seed and get that one win against Xavier or Providence on a neutral court, they'll be just fine.

[SJHooper]

BPI: SJ wins
RPI: G'Town wins
SOS: G'Town wins
Overall record: SJ wins
Conference record: SJ wins
Top 50 wins: G'Town wins
Head to head: Blew each other out (wash)

BPI: Doesn't matter to Selection Committee.
SOS: Matters, especially non-conference SOS for bubble teams.
Overall record: Doesn't matter.
Conference record: Matters, especially for bubble teams.
Top 50 wins: Matters.
Head-to-head: Doesn't matter.

Concerning 20 wins, I'm just going to emphasize this for everyone: Correlation does not equal causation.

Overall record does not matter, but it's unlikely that a team puts together all the necessary components for a tournament-worthy resume without reaching that mark or falling just short of 19. Unlikely does not mean impossible though, and Georgetown is a candidate to be one of the exceptions.

If you beat RPI 100+ teams, the Committee just does not care. Georgetown faced seven in the non-con, three 200+; St. John's faced ten, five 200+. If you beat RPI 51-100 teams, the Committee cares some. Wins against other potential tournament teams (RPI top 50) matter so much more, though, and Georgetown has a good record in that regard. Stever isn't just emphasizing it because it makes Georgetown look good but also because the Selection Committee cares a lot about that record. What is particularly good for their resume is that three of these wins occurred on a neutral court (two of which weren't just good wins but "marquee wins"), and one of the home wins (Creighton) occurred against a top 10 team, keeping it as a marquee win despite the familiar venue. This last point about Creighton is also true for St. John's, but it's the only notable win they have, save a road win against Providence.

Georgetown has to beat Villanova though. Overall record doesn't matter, but conference record does (particularly for bubble teams), and their resume isn't outstanding enough otherwise to make up for a sub-.500 record in conference, even in the RPI #3 conference. If they finish at .500 though, they'll improve to 3-7 on the road, which is by no means good, but there simply aren't good road records among bubble teams. They'll also notch a ridiculously good win, because it's a top 10 team on the road. That gets added to two marquee neutral wins, a marquee home win, a good neutral win, a good home win (weaker value), and maybe one more good home win with Providence (still weaker value). A non-conference SOS ranked 25th definitely helps their cause.

If they win a BET game in addition (just to avoid the bad loss, assuming they don't get the 6 seed), they'll probably feel pretty comfortable at 19-11. If they get the 6 seed and get that one win against Xavier or Providence on a neutral court, they'll be just fine.

Overall record does not matter? Uhm...17 wins is probably last out of every single bubble team right now. They would need to beat Nova AND win at least 1 BET game or if they lose to Nova they need to win it all just to get in. Pretty simple. I think way too many people are assuming G'Town will beat Nova at home. In their house it just doesn't happen.

I like how you took every credential SJ had and rendered it "irrelevant" lol. You know what also doesn't matter in school? Grades.

[XUFan09]

What did I just say about correlation doesn't equal causation that didn't sink in? Georgetown has probably the fewest wins among bubble teams because 97% of the time, teams with 17 wins haven't done enough to be on the bubble. They don't have a .500 record against top 50 teams while facing ten of them, they don't have multiple marquee wins, and they don't have a fantastic SOS.

How hard is it to understand that Georgetown is in a unique situation? Is it simply because it's unique? Come on, man, try to appreciate the nuance. The vast majority of the time, a team that has done all the good that Georgetown has done has also won a few more games in the process and is just wondering about seeding. It is highly improbable for a team to be in the position that Georgetown is in, but nevertheless, here they are.

And yes, overall record doesn't matter, plain and simple.

[XUFan09]

And I didn't take every credential SJU had and rendered it irrelevant. I pointed out how they have good wins, but their top 50 record pales in comparison to Georgetown's. There's a reason that SJU has more conference wins yet finds themselves right next to Georgetown on the bubble.

[HoosierPal]

Here are the win totals for the competition for maybe 10 not locked up At-Large bids. You have already covered the 4 BE candidates. You can add 1, 2 or 3 wins to some, or none, depending on how the season plays out. You know the drill. Half of these teams won't make the dance. And they most all could be at 20+ wins.

Colorado - 20 wins as of noon today
Stanford - 18
Cal - 18
Pitt - 22
Clemson - 19
Florida State - 18
NC State - 18
Nebraska - 17
Minnesota - 18
Indiana - 17
George Washington - 21
Dayton - 20
St. Joe - 21
Arkansas - 20
Tennessee - 18
Missouri - 20
Boise State - 19