How Many At-Large Bids are Locked In Already

[HoosierPal]

There are 7 teams that could win the Big 12 Tourney, 8 if you want to throw in West VA (but I don't). That will be a dogfight. The only relatively safe matchup will be with TCU or Texas Tech.

[stever20]

just looking at the bubble...
AAC- none
A10- St Joe's, GW, Dayton
ACC- Pitt, Clemson, FSU
B12- OSU/Baylor
BE- Xavier, PC, Marq, SJ, Georgetown
B10- Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota
MWC- Boise
P12- Stanford, California, Oregon
SEC- Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU
WCC- St Mary's

25 teams fighting for 10-15 spots...

[HoosierPal]

just looking at the bubble...
AAC- none
A10- St Joe's, GW, Dayton
ACC- Pitt, Clemson, FSU
B12- OSU/Baylor
BE- Xavier, PC, Marq, SJ, Georgetown
B10- Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota
MWC- Boise
P12- Stanford, California, Oregon
SEC- Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU
WCC- St Mary's

25 teams fighting for 10-15 spots...

Solid list. A couple of long shots, Indiana in particular, but if they win two + one, they could get in.
It's hard cutting this list down. But for what it's worth, the first layer higher on the bubble, are for me

A10-St Joe, GW
ACC - Pitt, FSU
B12 Baylor OSU
BE - Xavier, PC, SJ, Georgetown (but not all 4)
B10 - maybe none
MWC - none
P12- maybe all three in
SEC - likely Arkansas and the winner of TN/Mizzou
WCC - Nope

There's 13 to 14 right there, so start slimming this down again. Hard to do. Any of the other long shots can have the dominos fall their way.

And you also have to factor in at least one team that isn't on this list will wiggle in through the winning their Conference Tourney. And as you know that doesn't knock out a team from That Conference, but takes out the 'last one in'. The convenient example is the Valley. If Wichita State doesn't win, all they loose is a #1 seed and the Valley gets a second team in. Another would be CUSA. If Southern Miss doesn't win, they have a solid shot at an At Large. Toledo is another one, in the MAC. If they don't win the MAC tourney, likely they get in. So yeah, from this list only 10 will make it. This will be an interesting 12 days.

[stever20]

Big 12 I think you can say 5- Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoama, Texas, and Kansas St, and new Baylor. Probably could say 6- think OSU is fairly safe as well.
Big Ten- 4- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Iowa, and Ohio St
Pac 12- 3 Arizona, UCLA, Arizona St, Oregon
BE- 1 Villanova, Creighton
ACC- 3 Virginia, Syracuse, UNC, Duke
Atl 10- 2 Saint Louis, VCU, UMass,
SEC- 1 Florida, Kentucky
AAC- 4 Cincy, Louisville, SMU, UConn, Memphis
WCC- 1 Gonzaga, BYU
MWC- 1 San Diego St, New Mexico

so my updated list would have now 25-26 spots locked. Leaves 10-11 now.

The Bubble
Big 12- none
Big 10- Nebraska, Minnesota
Pac 12- Colorado, Stanford, California(guess what, Colorado plays Stanford and Cal this weekend)
BE- Xavier, Providence, St John's, Georgetown
ACC- Pitt, Clemson, FSU, NC State(all 4 have at least 18 wins RPI 53-68)
A10- GW(33 rpi), Dayton(47 rpi), St Joe's(34 RPI)
SEC- Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri
MWC- Boise

I would have then for those 10-11 spots- 20 teams fighting for them. I think right now, all 3 P12's likely get in, GW and St Joe's get in, Arkansas and Tennessee/Missouri winner get in. That's 9. So the other 11 teams fighting for only 1-2 spots.

A game that would be devastating looking tonight- Dayton plays SLU. A Dayton win and they are going to be looking better and better.
St Joe's/GW plays tonight. I think we can move them into lock status for the winner tonight.

[stever20]

another game to watch is in the Big Ten... Nebraska and Indiana play each other. The winner has a game this weekend that when combined with tonight could put them really close
Nebraska plays Wisconsin at home
Indiana plays Michigan on the road

If tonights winner wins again- especially if it's Nebraska- going to be getting awfully tough to keep them out. As long as they either don't play in the 5/12 game or if they do, win that game, they would likely be in.

[HoosierPal]

another game to watch is in the Big Ten... Nebraska and Indiana play each other. The winner has a game this weekend that when combined with tonight could put them really close
Nebraska plays Wisconsin at home
Indiana plays Michigan on the road

If tonights winner wins again- especially if it's Nebraska- going to be getting awfully tough to keep them out. As long as they either don't play in the 5/12 game or if they do, win that game, they would likely be in.

I agree on your analysis of Nebraska. I think they need two more wins. WI would be huge for them as it would be #4 v Top 50. The second win could come in the Big 10 tourney.

Indiana has to win three more games in my opinion which would mean NE, MI, and one (or two?) in the tourney. If they pull that off, they would have at least 5 Top 50 wins.

The first and second round of the Big 10 tourney will be very telling for a couple of possible At-Large wanna be's. It almost is a case for NE and IN that they don't want a bye, as they will play an easier opponent in the first round. I don't know about tie breakers, but right now NE would play Northwestern, and IU would play Purdue. If those are must win games, those are the opponents you want, not one of the top 4 seeds.

[HoosierPal]

Big 12 I think you can say 5- Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoama, Texas, and Kansas St, and new Baylor. Probably could say 6- think OSU is fairly safe as well.
Big Ten- 4- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Iowa, and Ohio St
Pac 12- 3 Arizona, UCLA, Arizona St, Oregon
BE- 1 Villanova, Creighton
ACC- 3 Virginia, Syracuse, UNC, Duke
Atl 10- 2 Saint Louis, VCU, UMass,
SEC- 1 Florida, Kentucky
AAC- 4 Cincy, Louisville, SMU, UConn, Memphis
WCC- 1 Gonzaga, BYU
MWC- 1 San Diego St, New Mexico

so my updated list would have now 25-26 spots locked. Leaves 10-11 now.

The Bubble
Big 12- none
Big 10- Nebraska, Minnesota
Pac 12- Colorado, Stanford, California(guess what, Colorado plays Stanford and Cal this weekend)
BE- Xavier, Providence, St John's, Georgetown
ACC- Pitt, Clemson, FSU, NC State(all 4 have at least 18 wins RPI 53-68)
A10- GW(33 rpi), Dayton(47 rpi), St Joe's(34 RPI)
SEC- Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri
MWC- Boise

I would have then for those 10-11 spots- 20 teams fighting for them. I think right now, all 3 P12's likely get in, GW and St Joe's get in, Arkansas and Tennessee/Missouri winner get in. That's 9. So the other 11 teams fighting for only 1-2 spots.

A game that would be devastating looking tonight- Dayton plays SLU. A Dayton win and they are going to be looking better and better.
St Joe's/GW plays tonight. I think we can move them into lock status for the winner tonight.

I think I am up to 40 At Large bids now. Ha! The fun question is who will win the TV Series Survivor in the Big East. Four spots looks a little iffy right now, doable, but the dominos have to fall the right way.

[stever20]

another game to watch is in the Big Ten... Nebraska and Indiana play each other. The winner has a game this weekend that when combined with tonight could put them really close
Nebraska plays Wisconsin at home
Indiana plays Michigan on the road

If tonights winner wins again- especially if it's Nebraska- going to be getting awfully tough to keep them out. As long as they either don't play in the 5/12 game or if they do, win that game, they would likely be in.

I agree on your analysis of Nebraska. I think they need two more wins. WI would be huge for them as it would be #4 v Top 50. The second win could come in the Big 10 tourney.

Indiana has to win three more games in my opinion which would mean NE, MI, and one (or two?) in the tourney. If they pull that off, they would have at least 5 Top 50 wins.

The first and second round of the Big 10 tourney will be very telling for a couple of possible At-Large wanna be's. It almost is a case for NE and IN that they don't want a bye, as they will play an easier opponent in the first round. I don't know about tie breakers, but right now NE would play Northwestern, and IU would play Purdue. If those are must win games, those are the opponents you want, not one of the top 4 seeds.

The 2nd win for Nebraska could come vs Indiana tonight. If they win both games this week, they are likely in unless they lose in the 5/12 game(which they may not even have to play- all they would need is a Iowa loss.

[HoosierPal]

I agree on your analysis of Nebraska. I think they need two more wins. WI would be huge for them as it would be #4 v Top 50. The second win could come in the Big 10 tourney.

Indiana has to win three more games in my opinion which would mean NE, MI, and one (or two?) in the tourney. If they pull that off, they would have at least 5 Top 50 wins.

The first and second round of the Big 10 tourney will be very telling for a couple of possible At-Large wanna be's. It almost is a case for NE and IN that they don't want a bye, as they will play an easier opponent in the first round. I don't know about tie breakers, but right now NE would play Northwestern, and IU would play Purdue. If those are must win games, those are the opponents you want, not one of the top 4 seeds.

The 2nd win for Nebraska could come vs Indiana tonight. If they win both games this week, they are likely in unless they lose in the 5/12 game(which they may not even have to play- all they would need is a Iowa loss.

We are together on NE. I'm saying that if they get beat by IU, then they would need to beat WI and get another win in the B10 tourney to feel better about their chances. If they lose to IU and WI, well, see you around NE.

[stever20]

I agree on your analysis of Nebraska. I think they need two more wins. WI would be huge for them as it would be #4 v Top 50. The second win could come in the Big 10 tourney.

Indiana has to win three more games in my opinion which would mean NE, MI, and one (or two?) in the tourney. If they pull that off, they would have at least 5 Top 50 wins.

The first and second round of the Big 10 tourney will be very telling for a couple of possible At-Large wanna be's. It almost is a case for NE and IN that they don't want a bye, as they will play an easier opponent in the first round. I don't know about tie breakers, but right now NE would play Northwestern, and IU would play Purdue. If those are must win games, those are the opponents you want, not one of the top 4 seeds.

The 2nd win for Nebraska could come vs Indiana tonight. If they win both games this week, they are likely in unless they lose in the 5/12 game(which they may not even have to play- all they would need is a Iowa loss.

We are together on NE. I'm saying that if they get beat by IU, then they would need to beat WI and get another win in the B10 tourney to feel better about their chances. If they lose to IU and WI, well, see you around NE.

Think if they lost to both, they would have to make the big ten final to have a shot.