How many more wins each team needs to get in

[gofriars08]

Georgetown opened back up a window for them to make the NCAAs with that win over Creighton. A road victory against Nova would give them a 3rd Top 25 RPI win / 6th Top 50 RPI win, and their SOS is going to wind up top 20. Add in one more win in the BET and they'd make it in almost for sure.

Providence will be flipping a coin if they lose to Creighton and go 1-1 in the BET. Beat Creighton and they are in regardless of the BET IMO. But if they go L-W-L in their last three games this year, they will be praying that some other bubble teams choke in their conference tourneys AND there are no powerhouse mid-majors who choke in their conference tournaments.

[HoosierPal]

21 wins is the number for X, Providence and the Johnnies.

This isn't the full issue. There are really only 10 to 12 At Large bids that are not Locked in already. Who knows what you will need to get one of those bids. Between Stever20 and I we listed 25 teams that have a shot at those bids.

[SJHooper]

I know this is going to sound so self-defeatist, pessimistic, and anger some people but...

If you are a betting man, bet all your money that SJ doesn't make it. The sad part is that they easily could if they wanted to. Beating Marquette then winning the first Big East game or 2 is not impossible especially playing the BET at home, but this team is very consistent with staying out of the tourney. It's like a specialty. 2011 Kennedy got hurt and we lost the opening round, 2012 Harrison suspended the last 6 games and we lost basically every game down the stretch, 2013 Obekpa injury and Jordan family issues keeping him out some games and not mentally there others.

SJ actually does fairly well leading up to the tourney in recent years getting into the conversation. The problem is actually punching a ticket and winning games in it. It's time to stop accepting failure. Before the season started, the MINIMUM we expected was a tourney berth. Most of us said it should be regarded as an epic failure if we don't make it with this much talent. Well, it happened barring a miracle. If we don't make it next year Lavin really should be fired on the spot. We are not a great team but we easily have the talent to at least make the tourney as a 12 seed or so at the minimum. It's so sad too because I know we would be a sexy choice to upset the 5 seed if we made it as the 12. Lavin easily could have taken us to the tourney 3/4 years of his tenure only missing when the team was all freshmen. Instead he's now 1/4 and an almost certain 1/5 after next year with the same team. Quickly turning into another decade of misery to make it 35 years of failure and averaging about 1 berth a decade. Disgusting.

[stever20]

21 wins is the number for X, Providence and the Johnnies.

This isn't the full issue. There are really only 10 to 12 At Large bids that are not Locked in already. Who knows what you will need to get one of those bids. Between Stever20 and I we listed 25 teams that have a shot at those bids.

the thing also- for teams like St John's- last night was brutal. Baylor and Oregon punched their tickets last night. Georgetown now really 1 big win away from punching theirs- if they beat Nova on Saturday, or Creighton again next Friday- they will be in period.

[HoosierPal]

21 wins is the number for X, Providence and the Johnnies.

This isn't the full issue. There are really only 10 to 12 At Large bids that are not Locked in already. Who knows what you will need to get one of those bids. Between Stever20 and I we listed 25 teams that have a shot at those bids.

the thing also- for teams like St John's- last night was brutal. Baylor and Oregon punched their tickets last night. Georgetown now really 1 big win away from punching theirs- if they beat Nova on Saturday, or Creighton again next Friday- they will be in period.

Agree on Oregon. I hadn't picked up their score. We all need to hope West Virginia doesn't make a run in the Big 12 tourney. If they win it or get to the finals, then the Big 12 may get 8 teams in. Unlikely, but still a possibility. Stever, I'm still thinking OSU will get in, with Smart back on the squad.

[stever20]

yep OSU to me is close to a lock now as well....

[SJHooper]

G'Town has some very nice wins but their record will probably not be good enough. Even with the Creighton win they are below .500 in conference play and only have 17 wins. That's very pedestrian. 1 more win would only give them 18 and .500 in conference. They have to do as much as SJ to have a chance if not more.

[stever20]

G'Town has some very nice wins but their record will probably not be good enough. Even with the Creighton win they are below .500 in conference play and only have 17 wins. That's very pedestrian. 1 more win would only give them 18 and .500 in conference. They have to do as much as SJ to have a chance if not more.

Nope. If they win on Saturday they have 18 wins- and a whopping 6 top 50 wins. Considering St John's has 5 top 100 wins right now- HUGE difference. There's a reason why Georgetown's RPI is 7 slots higher right now.

[SJHooper]

G'Town has some very nice wins but their record will probably not be good enough. Even with the Creighton win they are below .500 in conference play and only have 17 wins. That's very pedestrian. 1 more win would only give them 18 and .500 in conference. They have to do as much as SJ to have a chance if not more.

Nope. If they win on Saturday they have 18 wins- and a whopping 6 top 50 wins. Considering St John's has 5 top 100 wins right now- HUGE difference. There's a reason why Georgetown's RPI is 7 slots higher right now.

You can trade record for top 50 wins or top 50 wins for a better record. It's a wash. They still have plenty of work to do. Not many teams make the tourney with under 20 wins. They are still at 17 with 1 game left vs. Nova in the regular season. Best case scenario is ending the regular season with 18 wins and a .500 conference record. If they lose they have to win the BET to get in. Even winning vs. Nova would still mean they need to get wins in the BET. Their RPI is slightly better than SJ but SJ has the better overall and conference record. SJ also has a significantly better BPI. The only clear advantage G'Town has over SJ is the marquee wins in the top 25. Not sure if that will be enough to overcome 17 or 18 wins in the regular season. It's the whole picture they look at, not just top 25 or top 50 wins. If it comes down to SJ or G'Town for the 4th bid, it's a wash with the head to head matchup. Each blew the other out at home. Odds are never in your favor no matter who you beat with 17 wins this late in the season with 1 game left.

EDIT: I forgot G'Town has a much better SOS vs. SJ...but it's still at worst a wash IMO between the 2 teams. If it really came down to the 2 teams, I still think SJ edges it out due to the better record both overall and in conference at least for now.

[stever20]

G'Town has some very nice wins but their record will probably not be good enough. Even with the Creighton win they are below .500 in conference play and only have 17 wins. That's very pedestrian. 1 more win would only give them 18 and .500 in conference. They have to do as much as SJ to have a chance if not more.

Nope. If they win on Saturday they have 18 wins- and a whopping 6 top 50 wins. Considering St John's has 5 top 100 wins right now- HUGE difference. There's a reason why Georgetown's RPI is 7 slots higher right now.

You can trade record for top 50 wins or top 50 wins for a better record. It's a wash. They still have plenty of work to do. Not many teams make the tourney with under 20 wins. They are still at 17 with 1 game left vs. Nova in the regular season. Best case scenario is ending the regular season with 18 wins and a .500 conference record. If they lose they have to win the BET to get in. Even winning vs. Nova would still mean they need to get wins in the BET. Their RPI is slightly better than SJ but SJ has the better overall and conference record. SJ also has a significantly better BPI. The only clear advantage G'Town has over SJ is the marquee wins in the top 25. Not sure if that will be enough to overcome 17 or 18 wins in the regular season. It's the whole picture they look at, not just top 25 or top 50 wins. If it comes down to SJ or G'Town for the 4th bid, it's a wash with the head to head matchup. Each blew the other out at home. Odds are never in your favor no matter who you beat with 17 wins this late in the season with 1 game left.

The BPI doesn't mean crap.

SOS- Georgetown 22, St John's 45(and this gap will increase with last game)
vs top 50- Georgetown 5-5, St John's 1-7
vs top 100- Georgetown 7-9, St John's 5-9

The only clear advantage St John's has over Georgetown is record. Which is completely mitigated by SOS.