How Many At-Large Bids are Locked In Already

[HoosierPal]

Bubble talk is fun, but those talking naturally always are looking to support their team without full regard to the big picture. My question today is how many At-Large Bids are already more or less locked up. Subtract that from 36 gives you the number still available.

What I did was to look at each major conference and subtract 1 (the conference winner) from what I felt were solidly in teams as of today. Here is what I came up with for what I believe are locked in At Large Bids. This listing assumes that one of the top two teams will win the Conference Bid in each league.

AAC - 4
ACC - 3
A10 - 2
BE - 1
B12 - 3
B 10 - 3
MW - 1
P 12 - 2
SEC -1
WCC -1

That makes my count 21 locked in At Large Bids. That leaves only 15. How many teams are fighting for those 15? Perhaps 30 to 40? OK, I could be off one or two, but conference tourney upsets are not factored in here. And there are always upsets in one or two conference tourneys. Fun stuff these next 10 days.

[stever20]

Big 12 I think you can say 4- Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoama, Texas, and Kansas St. Probably could say 5- think OSU is fairly safe as well.
Big Ten- 4- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Iowa, and Ohio St
Pac 12- 3 Arizona, UCLA, Arizona St, Colorado
BE- 1 Villanova, Creighton
ACC- 3 Virginia, Syracuse, UNC, Duke
Atl 10- 3 Saint Louis, VCU, UMass, 1 of St Joe's/GW
SEC- 1 Florida, Kentucky
AAC- 4 Cincy, Louisville, SMU, UConn, Memphis
WCC- 1 Gonzaga, BYU
MWC- 1 San Diego St, New Mexico

by my count, that's 25 spots there- 26 if you include OSU. Leaves only 10 other at large spots left.

[HoosierPal]

Big 12 I think you can say 4- Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoama, Texas, and Kansas St. Probably could say 5- think OSU is fairly safe as well.
Big Ten- 4- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Iowa, and Ohio St
Pac 12- 3 Arizona, UCLA, Arizona St, Colorado
BE- 1 Villanova, Creighton
ACC- 3 Virginia, Syracuse, UNC, Duke
Atl 10- 3 Saint Louis, VCU, UMass, 1 of St Joe's/GW
SEC- 1 Florida, Kentucky
AAC- 4 Cincy, Louisville, SMU, UConn, Memphis
WCC- 1 Gonzaga, BYU
MWC- 1 San Diego St, New Mexico

by my count, that's 25 spots there- 26 if you include OSU. Leaves only 10 other at large spots left.

We're are pretty close here. OSU to me is headed in the right direction with Smart back, but has work to do. Same with Colorado. Ohio State is trending down, so I did not have them on my list. I agree that likely either St Joe or GW make it, but as of right now neither are solidly locked in in my book. I would be shocked if the SEC only gets two in, but I have trouble putting Arkansas on this locked in list. TN/MO will have a bubble battle this weekend, with the winner feeling much better than the loser.

So between us, the range is 10 to 15 open slots. That's not many. One or two will disappear with conference tourney upsets. Time to tighten up those resumes.

[stever20]

Big 12 I think you can say 4- Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoama, Texas, and Kansas St. Probably could say 5- think OSU is fairly safe as well.
Big Ten- 4- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Iowa, and Ohio St
Pac 12- 3 Arizona, UCLA, Arizona St, Colorado
BE- 1 Villanova, Creighton
ACC- 3 Virginia, Syracuse, UNC, Duke
Atl 10- 3 Saint Louis, VCU, UMass, 1 of St Joe's/GW
SEC- 1 Florida, Kentucky
AAC- 4 Cincy, Louisville, SMU, UConn, Memphis
WCC- 1 Gonzaga, BYU
MWC- 1 San Diego St, New Mexico

by my count, that's 25 spots there- 26 if you include OSU. Leaves only 10 other at large spots left.

We're are pretty close here. OSU to me is headed in the right direction with Smart back, but has work to do. Same with Colorado. Ohio State is trending down, so I did not have them on my list. I agree that likely either St Joe or GW make it, but as of right now neither are solidly locked in in my book. I would be shocked if the SEC only gets two in, but I have trouble putting Arkansas on this locked in list. TN/MO will have a bubble battle this weekend, with the winner feeling much better than the loser.

So between us, the range is 10 to 15 open slots. That's not many. One or two will disappear with conference tourney upsets. Time to tighten up those resumes.

Ohio St is safe- they have only 1 game left. 22-10 worst case with a .500 record from Big Ten- that's about as in as you can expect...
Oklahoma St as long as they don't lose to TCU in the 7/10 game, they should be safe. Worst case for them is 20-12.
You may be right about Colorado. May need 1 more win(20-12 worst case only 52.7 RPI).

[HoosierPal]

Big 12 I think you can say 4- Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoama, Texas, and Kansas St. Probably could say 5- think OSU is fairly safe as well.
Big Ten- 4- Michigan, Wisconsin, Mich St, Iowa, and Ohio St
Pac 12- 3 Arizona, UCLA, Arizona St, Colorado
BE- 1 Villanova, Creighton
ACC- 3 Virginia, Syracuse, UNC, Duke
Atl 10- 3 Saint Louis, VCU, UMass, 1 of St Joe's/GW
SEC- 1 Florida, Kentucky
AAC- 4 Cincy, Louisville, SMU, UConn, Memphis
WCC- 1 Gonzaga, BYU
MWC- 1 San Diego St, New Mexico

by my count, that's 25 spots there- 26 if you include OSU. Leaves only 10 other at large spots left.

We're are pretty close here. OSU to me is headed in the right direction with Smart back, but has work to do. Same with Colorado. Ohio State is trending down, so I did not have them on my list. I agree that likely either St Joe or GW make it, but as of right now neither are solidly locked in in my book. I would be shocked if the SEC only gets two in, but I have trouble putting Arkansas on this locked in list. TN/MO will have a bubble battle this weekend, with the winner feeling much better than the loser.

So between us, the range is 10 to 15 open slots. That's not many. One or two will disappear with conference tourney upsets. Time to tighten up those resumes.

Ohio St is safe- they have only 1 game left. 22-10 worst case with a .500 record from Big Ten- that's about as in as you can expect...
Oklahoma St as long as they don't lose to TCU in the 7/10 game, they should be safe. Worst case for them is 20-12.
You may be right about Colorado. May need 1 more win(20-12 worst case only 52.7 RPI).

Do you have the time or interest to put together a quick list of perhaps all of the teams still in reasonable contention for the 10 to 15 open At-Large Bids?

[stever20]

I will- but won't be until this evening...

What is amazing right now- of the 351 college teams this year-
3 teams season done- transitional teams, so don't qualify for tourney
7 teams didn't qualify for their conference tourney
1 team indy and their season is done
2 teams lost last night
so 13 teams are completely done...

then in addition for not making the tourney:
6 teams are out due to APR issues
3 more transitional teams
6 Ivy schools are gone and they don't have a conference tourney
1 Big Sky school already gone
so that's 16 more that can't win the championship.

So, right now 29 teams can't win the championship. 322 teams left. Tonight sees 7 more teams eliminated.

[HoosierPal]

1 team indy and their season is done

WHAT!! So you don't think NJIT will get an At-Large? Maybe a little premature???

[stever20]

1 team indy and their season is done

WHAT!! So you don't think NJIT will get an At-Large? Maybe a little premature???

If NJIT gets an at large, I'll stop posting on here forever.....
(bunch of new Highlander fans now I know!)

[HoosierPal]

What do you think SteveR20. Did Baylor lock in tonight? If not, they are mighty close. 7 Top 50 wins is pretty nice to go with the 20-10 record. Only ? would be a sub .500 Big 12 record.

[stever20]

What do you think SteveR20. Did Baylor lock in tonight? If not, they are mighty close. 7 Top 50 wins is pretty nice.

Baylor probably now. What is good for them is they with a scenario where WV and OSU lose out- would finish 6 and avoid the 7/10 or 8/9 game(thus a shot for a crippling loss).