A note about forecasts

[Bill Marsh]

I live in Connecticut. On Friday, the weather service predicted that we would get 8 inches of snow on Monday. By Saturday, it was down to 4 inches. Still too much for me to drive down to the Canisius - Manhaatan game that I had planned to attend.
By Sunday the prediction was down to an inch. Enough for me to risk it. Great game. Manhattan won by 5 in the last minute as predicted. The snow? Still haven't seen a flake.

The point?

Forecasts can be wrong . . . and often are.

There's been a lot of discussion here about how the season will end and how the tournament will play out. Some of it has referenced statistical analysis like RPIForecast.com. I'm as guilty as anyone. But if these stats could predict the final outcome, there would be no need to play the games.

Enjoy the games!

[billyjack]

I live in Connecticut. On Friday, the weather service predicted that we would get 8 inches of snow on Monday. By Saturday, it was down to 4 inches. Still too much for me to drive down to the Canisius - Manhaatan game that I had planned to attend.
By Sunday the prediction was down to an inch. Enough for me to risk it. Great game. Manhattan won by 5 in the last minute as predicted. The snow? Still haven't seen a flake.

The point?

Forecasts can be wrong . . . and often are.

There's been a lot of discussion here about how the season will end and how the tournament will play out. Some of it has referenced statistical analysis like RPIForecast.com. I'm as guilty as anyone. But if these stats could predict the final outcome, there would be no need to play the games.

Enjoy the games!

Good post.
By the way, Billy Baron is having an amazing year at Canisius. Ed Cooley was trying to get him to transfer to PC, but he ended up following his father to Canisius. Dan Hurley blocked him from going to PC (I don't know the rules on this), not wanting to help a local rival school.

[Bill Marsh]

I live in Connecticut. On Friday, the weather service predicted that we would get 8 inches of snow on Monday. By Saturday, it was down to 4 inches. Still too much for me to drive down to the Canisius - Manhaatan game that I had planned to attend.
By Sunday the prediction was down to an inch. Enough for me to risk it. Great game. Manhattan won by 5 in the last minute as predicted. The snow? Still haven't seen a flake.

The point?

Forecasts can be wrong . . . and often are.

There's been a lot of discussion here about how the season will end and how the tournament will play out. Some of it has referenced statistical analysis like RPIForecast.com. I'm as guilty as anyone. But if these stats could predict the final outcome, there would be no need to play the games.

Enjoy the games!

Good post.
By the way, Billy Baron is having an amazing year at Canisius. Ed Cooley was trying to get him to transfer to PC, but he ended up following his father to Canisius. Dan Hurley blocked him from going to PC (I don't know the rules on this), not wanting to help a local rival school.

Baron is a big reason why I went to the game. He's been compared with Jimmer Fredette of BYU. Manhattan shut him down, which is why they won. If you're interested in seeing him in person. The MAAC is playing their conference tournament this weekend in Springfield. It's only like 10 bucks for a double header. With a small crowd, you can always get a good seat with a general admission ticket. Canisius is playing Siena in the 4-5 game on Saturday. I may catch it myself since I didn't see him at his best (10 points).