AP top 10 teams vulnerable to upsets

[Bill Marsh]

ESPN did an insider article about the top 10 teams and how vulnerable they are to upsets... They've looked I believe at the past upsets and the components necessary for an upset.

Creighton they have as 3rd most likely. They say 2 major issues. 1 is lack of offensive rebounding. The other is the lack of forcing turnovers(#325 in the country right now).

Villanova is 4th most likely but is pretty far ahead of Creighton in this rating. Fouling is one issue- their opponents have 23% of the points from the line(national average is 22.3%). Also, guarding the 3 point line(which is huge when you are going up against a mid-major type team).

I can see folks saying they have them as 2 of the more likely ones. Have to remember right now, Creighton is 9 and Villanova is 8. So, kind of obvious that they would be viewed as more likely to get upset than one of the top 7 teams just from a numbers perspective.

I too am interested in upsets. And I agree that both Villanova are beatable.

When I look at potential upsets, I too look at turnovers and FT shooting because they can make a big difference in close games, which are the ones in which we are most likely to see an upset.

Creighton shoots 76% from the FT line and commits only 10 turnovers per game, both among of which are very among the best in the country. So, I feel good about them in close games. They are most vulnerable to upsets when their 3's aren't falling. Like HR hitters, 3-point shooters, the HR hitters of basketball are streaky. We've seen Creighton be devastatingly hot. When they've lost it's been because their 3's weren't falling and/or because they couldn't get their usual looks.

Villanova shoots 72% on FT's and commits 12 TO's per game, both of which are solid but not great. Certainly not a weakness in either area. I actually think that Villanova is less vulnerable to upsets than Creighton because they have so many weapons. They don't depend on one or two players to beat you. If Bell and Arcidiacono are missing their shots, someone else is likely to get hot just as happened yesterday. They are also very sound fundamentally, doing the little things that win games - top 50 in the country in FG % defense and turnover margin. They are just outside the top 50 (#57) in rebound margin. So, rebounding and defense, and playing mistake free basketball. That's Villanova basketball.

[Randy]

I am extremely worried about Creighton. You can analyze PPP, effective fg %, etc. all you want. However, anybody that knows basketball, realizes they rely on jump shots. In a one and done format, that is a high ceiling - low floor team make-up. Yes, they could get hot make it to Dallas. Also, i would not be surprised one bit if they were cold and got ousted the first weekend.

[Bill Marsh]

I am extremely worried about Creighton. You can analyze PPP, effective fg %, etc. all you want. However, anybody that knows basketball, realizes they rely on jump shots. In a one and done format, that is a high ceiling - low floor team make-up. Yes, they could get hot make it to Dallas. Also, i would not be surprised one bit if they were cold and got ousted the first weekend.

Agree. That is always a risk when a team relies so heavily on perimeter shooting. Live by the 3, die by the 3. Especially in one-and-done.

OTOH, they are not just any jump shooting team. They are an incredible jump shooting team. And like Larry Bird, McDermott is not just a jump shooter. He is a well rounded player who can take the ball to the hole with either hand, he can make things happen with a pass, and he is a very good rebounder. A complete player.

Something else worth noting about Creighton is that they take care of the basketball. They are top ten in the country in both fewest turnovers and in assists. When A team plays mistake free basketball, they are going to stay in games, which is why Creighton is where they are.

[stever20]

I am extremely worried about Creighton. You can analyze PPP, effective fg %, etc. all you want. However, anybody that knows basketball, realizes they rely on jump shots. In a one and done format, that is a high ceiling - low floor team make-up. Yes, they could get hot make it to Dallas. Also, i would not be surprised one bit if they were cold and got ousted the first weekend.

Agree. That is always a risk when a team relies so heavily on perimeter shooting. Live by the 3, die by the 3. Especially in one-and-done.

OTOH, they are not just any jump shooting team. They are an incredible jump shooting team. And like Larry Bird, McDermott is not just a jump shooter. He is a well rounded player who can take the ball to the hole with either hand, he can make things happen with a pass, and he is a very good rebounder. A complete player.

Something else worth noting about Creighton is that they take care of the basketball. They are top ten in the country in both fewest turnovers and in assists. When A team plays mistake free basketball, they are going to stay in games, which is why Creighton is where they are.

Just looking at Creighton's losses.
San Diego St- got outrebounded 37-29 and had 12 turnovers.
GW- they had 13 turnovers and only shot 7-25 from 3 pt range.
Providence- got outrebounded 33-27 and shot only 4-19 from 3 pt range. Also forced only 5 turnovers
St Johns- had 11 turnovers and only shot 5-22 from 3 pt range. Only forced 7 turnovers.
Xavier- had 15 turnovers, outrebounded by 2, and shot 10-34 from 3 pt range

so in 5 losses they shot only 26-100 26% from 3 point range and got outrebounded I think in 4/5 of those games. Not forcing a ton of turnovers is huge- vs weaker teams- that's going to allow them to stay in the game more.
in wins 263-586 or 44.9%.

[sciencejay]

As a Jays fan/alum, I too am worried about our tourney prospects. The school website had a stat buried in the Xavier pregame info that was very telling. In the past three years, the Jays are 70-8 when shooting better than 30% from 3pt range (52-4 when shooting better than 40%), but 10-10 when shooting less than 30% from 3. Other than the SDSU loss, we've shot less than 30% from 3 four times this season and lost all four games.

What was tough watching the Xavier game on Saturday was that we got (and missed) several open looks--that happened in GW, PC and SJ losses too (especially SJ where our FT shooting went into the trash). The reason Marsh says we're not just any jump shooting team is that we share the ball extremely well as a team, so the looks are often open. That should give me hope that we can get it done come tourney time, but I'm not wired that way. I'm always nervous because if we shoot poorly, we're in trouble. The flip side to that is that we've been able to battle and stay close in all the games we lost, we just couldn't get it done in the end. So even a bad day shooting isn't a death sentence (depending on the opponent).

[Bill Marsh]

I am extremely worried about Creighton. You can analyze PPP, effective fg %, etc. all you want. However, anybody that knows basketball, realizes they rely on jump shots. In a one and done format, that is a high ceiling - low floor team make-up. Yes, they could get hot make it to Dallas. Also, i would not be surprised one bit if they were cold and got ousted the first weekend.

Agree. That is always a risk when a team relies so heavily on perimeter shooting. Live by the 3, die by the 3. Especially in one-and-done.

OTOH, they are not just any jump shooting team. They are an incredible jump shooting team. And like Larry Bird, McDermott is not just a jump shooter. He is a well rounded player who can take the ball to the hole with either hand, he can make things happen with a pass, and he is a very good rebounder. A complete player.

Something else worth noting about Creighton is that they take care of the basketball. They are top ten in the country in both fewest turnovers and in assists. When A team plays mistake free basketball, they are going to stay in games, which is why Creighton is where they are.

Just looking at Creighton's losses.
San Diego St- got outrebounded 37-29 and had 12 turnovers.
GW- they had 13 turnovers and only shot 7-25 from 3 pt range.
Providence- got outrebounded 33-27 and shot only 4-19 from 3 pt range. Also forced only 5 turnovers
St Johns- had 11 turnovers and only shot 5-22 from 3 pt range. Only forced 7 turnovers.
Xavier- had 15 turnovers, outrebounded by 2, and shot 10-34 from 3 pt range

so in 5 losses they shot only 26-100 26% from 3 point range and got outrebounded I think in 4/5 of those games. Not forcing a ton of turnovers is huge- vs weaker teams- that's going to allow them to stay in the game more.
in wins 263-586 or 44.9%.

Creighton doesn't turn anyone over, win or lose. Turnovers had nothing to do with those losses.

Creighton's game is predicated on hitting their 3's. That's not news. When they don't do that, they lose, which is what happened in 4 of those 5 losses.

San Diego State was the 5th game. Creighton actually shot well in that game, so that doesn't explain the loss. The difference was at the foul line. SDSU shot 31 FT's and made most of them. Creighton can't give a team an advantage of an extra 20 FT's and expect o win the game.

Rebound margin is an irrelevant stat. Teams are supposed to get defensive rebounds. Teams that win the battle of the boards are normally the team that holds the other team to a lower shooting percentage. They get more defensive rebounds because there are more defensive rebounds available. When a team shoots a high percentage, the opponent doesn't get a lot of rebounds because there aren't a lot of defensive rebounds available. Offensive rebounds are the game changers. In those losses, Creighton was never out rebounded on the offensive boards by more than 2 or 3, which by itself doesn't explain those losses.

[stever20]

Actually just looking at the San Diego St game. Rebounding was huge...
When San Diego St missed their shots- they got the rebounds at nearly a 40% clip. When Creighton missed their shots, they got the rebounds at nearly a 30% clip. That's a pretty huge difference. It was Creighton's worst defensive rebounding game of the year. Free Throws kind of misleading in that game because 9 of the 31 were when the Jays were fouling on purpose late in the game to stop the clock.

[chicagojayfan]

It isn't JUST shooting for Creighton. Yes, that is a primary part of what they do, but when they are shooting well they are just as likely to blow someone out of the gym. Rebounding is a bigger indicator of how they will do on a given night when they are shooting average or worse than average.

Their offensive efficiency generally means that they can find ways to score if they have enough possessions, but if they are giving up an extra 10 possessions by allowing the opponent to get to the offensive glass they have a hard time staying in it without starting to rush their offense. They will score in transition, but their half court sets are generally more deliberate and patient to get the best available shot. Speed that up and they aren't nearly as efficient (at several points in the Xavier game they were playing faster than they should have, for instance)

The bottom line is that they can climb out of a lot of shooting holes with decent defense and rebounding enough to keep the opponents off of the offensive glass. Get even on the boards, play halfway decent D and they can get enough possessions so that the shots will eventually fall.... even on poor shooting nights.

[stever20]

It isn't JUST shooting for Creighton. Yes, that is a primary part of what they do, but when they are shooting well they are just as likely to blow someone out of the gym. Rebounding is a bigger indicator of how they will do on a given night when they are shooting average or worse than average.

Their offensive efficiency generally means that they can find ways to score if they have enough possessions, but if they are giving up an extra 10 possessions by allowing the opponent to get to the offensive glass they have a hard time staying in it without starting to rush their offense. They will score in transition, but their half court sets are generally more deliberate and patient to get the best available shot. Speed that up and they aren't nearly as efficient (at several points in the Xavier game they were playing faster than they should have, for instance)

The bottom line is that they can climb out of a lot of shooting holes with decent defense and rebounding enough to keep the opponents off of the offensive glass. Get even on the boards, play halfway decent D and they can get enough possessions so that the shots will eventually fall.... even on poor shooting nights.

I'd agree with that. And think about it- I think by definition, for Creighton to get upset, they would be having to have a poor shooting night. So if they aren't turning over the other team, and they are giving up multiple 2nd chance opportunities, that's a prime recipe for upsets.