Big East NCAA Bubble Watch

[admin]

Plenty of interesting basketball this weekend, especially considering how many bubble teams the Big East has. We're going to try and post a daily update of important results from the previous day as well as important bubble games to watch.

Link- http://holylandofhoops.net/march-1st-bi ... e-tracker/

[ChelseaFriar]

Was hoping UMASS would beat Dayton today (PC lost to UMASS in OT). Dayton won and they are a bubble team.

URI up by 16 over Richmond at the half. I'm hoping URI holds on. PC beat URI and Richmond seems to be on the bubble.

Tenn crushed Vandy today (PC beat Vandy). Tenn is a bubble team.

[marquette]

Richmond has 28(!) points with 8 minutes left in the game. URI has 54. They aren't winning this one. Likely off the bubble after this game.

[marquette]

Miami beat NC State at NC state, by 15. Miami is not a bubble team, NC State is. Not sure how this affects their chances overall, but can't be good for them.

Indiana State was beat by UNI, likely ends the slim chance they had at an at-large bid. Baylor moves closer to punching their ticket by beating Texas Tech.

[admin]

Not a good day for the Big East teams on the bubble - March 2 Bubble update: www.holylandofhoops.net

[Bill Marsh]

Not a good day for the Big East teams on the bubble - March 2 Bubble update: http://www.holylandofhoops.net

Thanks for doing the compiling and analysis. Good stuff. Very interesting.

I'll compare notes with you just for the fun of it and to provide another POV.

Agree that barring collapse St. Joe's, BYU, and Oregon are all in. So, we ca dispense with those.

Agree that Minnesota missed an opportunity @ Michigan, but nothing much changes with them. For now, they remain on the bubble and probably on the right side of the bubble.

A bright spot you didn't mention is Cal's loss @ Arizona State. A loss weakens their position on the bubble even though it's a road loss vs a likely tournament team.

No question that Dayton and OK State had huge wins. Like Xavier, those W's may well have put both in the tournament.

But Tennessee in? Uhh . . . Maybe. Right on the edge. Could go either way. Right now, I'd say, no. But Vandy was a decent win and a W always helps. Missouri's win over Miss St may actually have hurt them just by having the game on their schedule. PC is neck and neck with these 2 and nothing is decided right now.

Nebraska probably needs a run in the B10 tourney like Georgetown and St. John's. Beating NW didn't change that. I doubt they'll go on that run, but St. John's just might.

[ruechalgrin]

I read recently Joey Brackets has not been one of the most accurate in figuring out who is in or seeds (cannot find the article). Just because he is on ESPN, he gets cited, but Palm, Bracketville, etc. more accurate historically.

Full disclosure, I am a Dayton fan.

Big East locks obviously Villanova and Creighton, but I will add Xavier based upon win versus Creighton. Barring a melt-down, which Xavier does not normally have, I just don't see how 6-10 teams jump their resume. At least 1 if not both of Providence and St. John's in so BE clearly at 4-5 teams and just about all can make big runs in the tourney.

Totally agree about Tenn., I don't understand it. I would put Minnesota and Cal in the same category.

Tenn = 48 RPI; 2-6 top 50, 5-2 51-100 (so 7-8 top 100), 10-3 101+; road/neutral 5-8 with best win Xavier neutral 42, then LSU away 62, then Wake Forest neutral 116.
Minn = 47 RPI; 3-7 top 50, 3-3 51-100 (so 6-10 top 100),11-2 101+; road/neutral 3-9 with best win Rich away 62, then Penn State away 108, then Nwestern away 128 (those are their only 3 away/neutral wins!)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... /MINN/TENN
Cal = 51 RPI; 3-9 top 50, 3-0 51-100 (so 6-9 top 100); 12-2 101+; road/neutral 6-8 with best Oregon away 33, then Stanford away 41, then neutral Arkansas 57
Day = 48 RPI; 3-5 top 50; 4-1 51-100 (so 7-6 top 100); 13-3 101+; road/neutral 8-5 with best Gonzaga neutral 25, then Cal neutral 51, then away Ole Miss 92.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... CAL/DAYTON
X = 42 RPI; 3-4 top 50; 5-3 51-100 (so 8-7 top 100); 12-2 101+; 5-8 road/neutral with best Cincy neutral 17, then St. John's away 60, then away Bama 121.
Prov = 56 RPI; 2-5 top 50; 5-4 51-100 (so 7-9 top 100); 12-1 101+; 7-7 road/neural with best St. John's away 60, then Lasalle neutral 84, then neutral Vandy 96.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... AVIER/PROV

If I take 3 of these 6, I take Providence, X, and Dayton. Tenn, Minn, and Cal = worse top 50 than X/Dayton; worse top 100 than X, Providence, Dayton; worse road/neutral than X, Providence, Dayton (Tenn actually comparable to X); Providence best with 1 bad loss; Minn, Cal, and X with 2 bad losses; and Dayton + Tenn. 3 bad losses.

Besides pointing to 1 nice win for Cal (Arizona), Minn (Wisconsin), and Tenn (Va.), I simply do not see why these teams would be in. And they each got a high profile win, but had a ton of shots at top 25 wins -- Minnesota has had 8 shots (1 for 8); Tenn. 5 (1 for 5); and Cal 6 (1 for 6). Dayton has had 4 (2 for 4); X has had 4 (2 for 4); and Providence 5 (1 for 5).

[marquette]

I read recently Joey Brackets has not been one of the most accurate in figuring out who is in or seeds (cannot find the article). Just because he is on ESPN, he gets cited, but Palm, Bracketville, etc. more accurate historically.

Full disclosure, I am a Dayton fan.

Big East locks obviously Villanova and Creighton, but I will add Xavier based upon win versus Creighton. Barring a melt-down, which Xavier does not normally have, I just don't see how 6-10 teams jump their resume. At least 1 if not both of Providence and St. John's in so BE clearly at 4-5 teams and just about all can make big runs in the tourney.

Totally agree about Tenn., I don't understand it. I would put Minnesota and Cal in the same category.

Tenn = 48 RPI; 2-6 top 50, 5-2 51-100 (so 7-8 top 100), 10-3 101+; road/neutral 5-8 with best win Xavier neutral 42, then LSU away 62, then Wake Forest neutral 116.
Minn = 47 RPI; 3-7 top 50, 3-3 51-100 (so 6-10 top 100),11-2 101+; road/neutral 3-9 with best win Rich away 62, then Penn State away 108, then Nwestern away 128 (those are their only 3 away/neutral wins!)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... /MINN/TENN
Cal = 51 RPI; 3-9 top 50, 3-0 51-100 (so 6-9 top 100); 12-2 101+; road/neutral 6-8 with best Oregon away 33, then Stanford away 41, then neutral Arkansas 57
Day = 48 RPI; 3-5 top 50; 4-1 51-100 (so 7-6 top 100); 13-3 101+; road/neutral 8-5 with best Gonzaga neutral 25, then Cal neutral 51, then away Ole Miss 92.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... CAL/DAYTON
X = 42 RPI; 3-4 top 50; 5-3 51-100 (so 8-7 top 100); 12-2 101+; 5-8 road/neutral with best Cincy neutral 17, then St. John's away 60, then away Bama 121.
Prov = 56 RPI; 2-5 top 50; 5-4 51-100 (so 7-9 top 100); 12-1 101+; 7-7 road/neural with best St. John's away 60, then Lasalle neutral 84, then neutral Vandy 96.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... AVIER/PROV

If I take 3 of these 6, I take Providence, X, and Dayton. Tenn, Minn, and Cal = worse top 50 than X/Dayton; worse top 100 than X, Providence, Dayton; worse road/neutral than X, Providence, Dayton (Tenn actually comparable to X); Providence best with 1 bad loss; Minn, Cal, and X with 2 bad losses; and Dayton + Tenn. 3 bad losses.

Besides pointing to 1 nice win for Cal (Arizona), Minn (Wisconsin), and Tenn (Va.), I simply do not see why these teams would be in. And they each got a high profile win, but had a ton of shots at top 25 wins -- Minnesota has had 8 shots (1 for 8); Tenn. 5 (1 for 5); and Cal 6 (1 for 6). Dayton has had 4 (2 for 4); X has had 4 (2 for 4); and Providence 5 (1 for 5).

Good analysis. I've heard the same thing about Lunardi, I think I read that he was the 35th most accurate industry bracket last year (could be remembering wrong). I like X and PC's chances to get to the tournament. X fans probably won't be sweating come selection Sunday, PC fans might be a little more nervous but I still think they get in. UD has put together a pretty strong season and should probably be dancing come tourney time. Another win against SLU or UR most likely locks it up for you. Both teams look beatable right now. Good luck with the rest of the season.

[Omaha1]

I'll never forgive Lunardi for having Creighton in a few years ago and then getting 64 out of 65 right... Jays were the lone mistake.

[SJHooper]

How is Minnesota on the right side of the bubble? They are 7-10 in conference and only have 18 wins overall. How is SJ's resume not better? Record has to be the first thing they look at and theirs sucks.