FORBES: AAC May Have Strongest Teams in the Dance

[Bill Marsh]

With the individual teams- yes it's kind of worst case scenario. I mean a year where end of regular season you only have 2 20 win teams possibly? That's not good at all. You are focusing WAY too much on conference rank. I mean- just think right now if Xavier had beaten USC and Georgetown had beaten Northeastern. Right now, things are looking a LOT differently. Xavier would be in right now almost certainly, and Georgetown would just need a split next week to make the tourney. Marquette had 5 games they could have won OOC that if they win just 1 they are in right now. Just about everything OOC wasn't great. I'd rather be the 5th best conference- but have 1-2 more 20 win teams.

Steve, Steve, Steve . . . (Sigh) . . .

You're bemoaning something that hasn't happened yet. There will be upsets and surprises before the season's over. You want more 20-win teams? I'm guessing that there will be 5 21+ BE teams by the end of the BE tournament with all 5 likely to go to the NCAA's.

You're still spending way too much time still obsessing over what happened months ago OOC.

[stever20]

With the individual teams- yes it's kind of worst case scenario. I mean a year where end of regular season you only have 2 20 win teams possibly? That's not good at all. You are focusing WAY too much on conference rank. I mean- just think right now if Xavier had beaten USC and Georgetown had beaten Northeastern. Right now, things are looking a LOT differently. Xavier would be in right now almost certainly, and Georgetown would just need a split next week to make the tourney. Marquette had 5 games they could have won OOC that if they win just 1 they are in right now. Just about everything OOC wasn't great. I'd rather be the 5th best conference- but have 1-2 more 20 win teams.

Steve, Steve, Steve . . . (Sigh) . . .

You're bemoaning something that hasn't happened yet. There will be upsets and surprises before the season's over. You want more 20-win teams? I'm guessing that there will be 5 21+ BE teams by the end of the BE tournament with all 5 likely to go to the NCAA's.

You're still spending way too much time still obsessing over what happened months ago OOC.

5 teams with 21+ wins...
Creighton and Villanova obviously already there.
Georgetown would have to win out to include the BET
Seton Hall, DePaul, and butler mathematically impossible.

Marquette 17-11. Would have to win 4 games from last 3 regular season games and QF BET.
Xavier 19-9. Would have to win 2 games from last 3 regular season games(Seton Hall, Nova, Creighton) or QF BET.
Providence 19-10. Would have to win 2 games from last 2 regular season games(Marquette, Creighton) or QF BET
St John's 18-11. Would have to win 2 games from last 2 regular season games(DePaul, Marquette) or QF BET.

If Creighton and Nova wins out- very possible....
Marquette enters BET at best at 19-12
Xavier enters BET at best at 20-11(oh, and 19-11 in NCAA terms)
Providence enters BET at best at 20-11
St John's enters BET at best at 20-11.
furthermore- Marquette plays both Providence and St John's so if PC and St John's are 20-11, Marquette is 17-14 and can't win 21 games.

Your scenario of 5 teams would require Creighton and Villanova to lose out just about. That's not happening. 2 more teams at 21+ wins seems like the absolute realistic maximum. Providence is not beating Creighton on Creighton's senior night. Period. So they will enter the tourney at best at 20-11 and 10-8 in conference. St John's wins out they are 20-11 10-8. Xavier goes 2-1 giving them a win over Nova on their senior night. They are 11-7 and 21-10. You have Xavier vs Marquette and St Johns vs Providence(with both teams at 20-11).

And, I'm sorry, but if Xavier, Marquette, and Georgetown hadn't crapped the bed OOC, the BE wouldn't be in the position it is now looking 4 tourney spots square in the face.

[StJGuru]

The quoted statement below should tell you to stop reading immediately and question his knowledge. Look at the Big East recruiting successes compared to any league (let alone the AAC) and you'll see why.

Without that anchor and the support of BCS football, it could be a major challenge for Big East schools to compete in recruiting and on the court with the power conferences in the future.

ANY has arguably the top recruit in the country running the point next year in Emmanuel Mudiay! Off the strength of this season, the team's in the lower half of the SAC should get a big recruiting bump with the added prestige and exposure. HOUSTON is a talented team that should flourish with a new coach.. they beat UCONN and Memphis this year...

But as was said, those 4 programs (UCONN, MEMPHIS, CINCINNATI, SMU) will all be strong contenders next year; while Creighton will likely disappear once their once in a blue moon players moves on to the NBA.

I THINK THE WRITER MAKES A GOOD ARGUMENT ABOUT THE FOX ALBATROSS.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever is a glass is half empty guy. He brings good insight and is a good contributor but he is also part Chicken Little. It's the first year of the league. We have two Top 10 teams, 2 coaches (out of 10 nationally) that are finalists for coach of the year, the NPOY, and a very competitive league. XU and PC were bubble teams coming into the year; that's where they are now. Granted MU and Gtwn have been minor disappointments but VU and CU have exceeded expectations. Stop with the doom and gloom and just let the season play out. I do not agree that we want 5 top teams beat the bottom 5 teams up (a la AAC) just so we get rankings and tourney bids. Give me 10 quality programs who beat the hell out of each other night in and night out. That is what makes for a great conference. Watching these league games this year has been such a blast; every night is a great/meaningful game. I would prefer if DePaul and SHU were good, not doormats. As evidenced by what we are seeing on the recruiting trail every program seems to be getting better. Our OOC performance was not ideal but we are ranked as one of the top few leagues overall and I love the position that this league is in. Can we just enjoy the ride a little before looking into the crystal ball so much and making definitive statements about this year.

[Bill Marsh]

With the individual teams- yes it's kind of worst case scenario. I mean a year where end of regular season you only have 2 20 win teams possibly? That's not good at all. You are focusing WAY too much on conference rank. I mean- just think right now if Xavier had beaten USC and Georgetown had beaten Northeastern. Right now, things are looking a LOT differently. Xavier would be in right now almost certainly, and Georgetown would just need a split next week to make the tourney. Marquette had 5 games they could have won OOC that if they win just 1 they are in right now. Just about everything OOC wasn't great. I'd rather be the 5th best conference- but have 1-2 more 20 win teams.

Steve, Steve, Steve . . . (Sigh) . . .

You're bemoaning something that hasn't happened yet. There will be upsets and surprises before the season's over. You want more 20-win teams? I'm guessing that there will be 5 21+ BE teams by the end of the BE tournament with all 5 likely to go to the NCAA's.

You're still spending way too much time still obsessing over what happened months ago OOC.

5 teams with 21+ wins...
Creighton and Villanova obviously already there.
Georgetown would have to win out to include the BET
Seton Hall, DePaul, and butler mathematically impossible.

Marquette 17-11. Would have to win 4 games from last 3 regular season games and QF BET.
Xavier 19-9. Would have to win 2 games from last 3 regular season games(Seton Hall, Nova, Creighton) or QF BET.
Providence 19-10. Would have to win 2 games from last 2 regular season games(Marquette, Creighton) or QF BET
St John's 18-11. Would have to win 2 games from last 2 regular season games(DePaul, Marquette) or QF BET.

If Creighton and Nova wins out- very possible....
Marquette enters BET at best at 19-12
Xavier enters BET at best at 20-11(oh, and 19-11 in NCAA terms)
Providence enters BET at best at 20-11
St John's enters BET at best at 20-11.
furthermore- Marquette plays both Providence and St John's so if PC and St John's are 20-11, Marquette is 17-14 and can't win 21 games.

Your scenario of 5 teams would require Creighton and Villanova to lose out just about. That's not happening. 2 more teams at 21+ wins seems like the absolute realistic maximum. Providence is not beating Creighton on Creighton's senior night. Period. So they will enter the tourney at best at 20-11 and 10-8 in conference. St John's wins out they are 20-11 10-8. Xavier goes 2-1 giving them a win over Nova on their senior night. They are 11-7 and 21-10. You have Xavier vs Marquette and St Johns vs Providence(with both teams at 20-11).

And, I'm sorry, but if Xavier, Marquette, and Georgetown hadn't crapped the bed OOC, the BE wouldn't be in the position it is now looking 4 tourney spots square in the face.

Steve, I wasn't able to follow all that, but it's very simple:

1. Creighton wins 2 of its final 3, losing to Xavier today, and goes on to win the BE tourney.

2. Villanova wins 2 of its final 3, losing to Xavier later this week, then gets upset by St. John's in the tourney semi's.

3. Xavier wins out in the regular season before losing to St. John's in the tourney quarterfinal a.

4. Providence beats Marquette this week before losing to Creighton and then beats Marquette again in the tourney before losing to Creighton again in the tourney semi's. Weird schedule to end the season.

5. St. John's beats DePaul before losing to Marquette and then wins 2 tourney games against Xavier and Villanova before losing in the finals.

[stever20]

I think one thing that will be interesting is to compare the actual final standings for both leagues....
right now-
1 and 2 are both 13-2. can't argue with that.
3 for AAC is 11-4. 3 for BE is 9-6
4 for AAC is 10-5. 4 for BE is 9-6
5 for AAC is 10-5. 5 for BE is 9-7
6 for AAC is 6-9. 6 for BE is 8-8
7 for AAC is 4-11. 7 for BE is 7-9
8 for AAC is 3-12. 8 for BE is 5-11
9 for AAC is 3-12. 9 for BE is 3-13
10 for AAC is 2-13 10 for BE is 2-14

However if you look at the schedules- #6 AAC Houston may win 3 more games. They play 10,9,8 last 3 games.
#7 still has a game vs #8 in the AAC, while #7 in the BE has 1 and 2 left.
#8 USF still has games vs 7,6,10
#9 UCF still has games vs 10 and 6.

for BE:
Our #6 has games left with 9 and 4- so 6 seeds could both be 9-9.
Our #8 still has games left with 3 and 10
Our #9 still has games left with 6 and 10
our #10 has games left with 8 and 9.
AAC's top 5 plays a lot vs each other last week as well- not as much for Big East.

we'll see how it ends up but the conference standings could look a LOT more alike than you think. The only difference negatively for them could be 7 and 8- but even that could tighten up some last 9 days,.

Where the difference is to me just our bottom teams did a better job OOC, while their 3-5 teams did a better job OOC. For trying to get more teams in, the AAC way is probably a smidge better.

[stever20]

not sure how reasonable it is to think that...
Xavier beats both Creighton and Villanova both on their home court
or
Providence does something they haven't done since 2007 and beat Marquette- twice.

if those don't happen, the favorable brackets you have just don't happen.

[Bill Marsh]

I think one thing that will be interesting is to compare the actual final standings for both leagues....
right now-
1 and 2 are both 13-2. can't argue with that.
3 for AAC is 11-4. 3 for BE is 9-6
4 for AAC is 10-5. 4 for BE is 9-6
5 for AAC is 10-5. 5 for BE is 9-7
6 for AAC is 6-9. 6 for BE is 8-8
7 for AAC is 4-11. 7 for BE is 7-9
8 for AAC is 3-12. 8 for BE is 5-11
9 for AAC is 3-12. 9 for BE is 3-13
10 for AAC is 2-13 10 for BE is 2-14

However if you look at the schedules- #6 AAC Houston may win 3 more games. They play 10,9,8 last 3 games.
#7 still has a game vs #8 in the AAC, while #7 in the BE has 1 and 2 left.
#8 USF still has games vs 7,6,10
#9 UCF still has games vs 10 and 6.

for BE:
Our #6 has games left with 9 and 4- so 6 seeds could both be 9-9.
Our #8 still has games left with 3 and 10
Our #9 still has games left with 6 and 10
our #10 has games left with 8 and 9.
AAC's top 5 plays a lot vs each other last week as well- not as much for Big East.

we'll see how it ends up but the conference standings could look a LOT more alike than you think. The only difference negatively for them could be 7 and 8- but even that could tighten up some last 9 days,.

Where the difference is to me just our bottom teams did a better job OOC, while their 3-5 teams did a better job OOC. For trying to get more teams in, the AAC way is probably a smidge better.

Thanks for highlighting that Steve. Excellent points. You've called my attention to some things I haven't been looking at I appreciate it.

[WaitingPatiently]

FOX albatross? How is a contract that pays each team in the league 3-4-5 times for basketball what others (i.e. AAC) get for both football and basketball an albatross? Sure the exposure now isn't the same as the world wide leader, but this is for a decade. At the end of the decade, you'd think the gap won't be as significant. Even if the gap doesn't close in a worst case scenario, the extra funds make it a worthwhile risk.

And judging the BE after one year is very shortsighted. The extra funds will make a significant difference over time. An individual year maybe not, but over the course of time the AAC, A10, etc aren't playing from the same financial spot. That alone will eventually be a significant difference maker for this conference. It allows paying to retain coaches and staffs, modes of travel, facilities, whatever appeals to recruits, etc to slant the trajectory to a different arc from other conferences.

[DudeAnon]

And the award for most negative poster of the year goes to *drum roll* "Stever20"...