Big East Standings Through February 27

[Bill Marsh]

I'll say this- the standings if what either of us have would present by far worst case scenarios. I mean, 2 20 win teams heading into the BET? This type of final standings have been what I was fearing all along. No seperation from the bottom teams in the league.

Of course, the glass half full says that there are no pushovers in our league. That can't be said for all leagues (Looking at you, TCU, Virginia Tech, Washington State, and with an average RPI of 179, the entire bottom half of the AAC).

Butler and DePaul could wind up with RPI's of:
Butler 189 if they lose out, 173.5 if they lose out but beat DePaul
DePaul 177.4 if they lose out, 166 if they lose out but beat Butler
so either 173.5/177.4 or 189/166. That's kind of getting into that pushover category. Oh, and Seton Hall could be at like 144.

But that wouldn't change anything. The relative strength of the league would remain the same. It would simply gain the separation that you would like to see.

I agree with Not Kirk who was talking about the "worst case scenario" as you labeled it. Even in that case, this is still one of the 4 strongest conferences in the country and the information which is presented to the selection committee will reflect that.

[stever20]

The thing though is- conferences don't get bids. Teams get bids. If we have end of season 2 great teams, but then 2 20-13 teams(QF winners who lose in the SF) and 2 19-13 teams- that's very tenuous in getting quite possibly even 3 bids. Even with being the 4th best conference.

And what Kirk was saying that we have no pushovers- if we have a team at 189, that's a pushover. They haven't played like a pushover- but the RPI would indicate that they are a pushover.

[Bill Marsh]

The thing though is- conferences don't get bids. Teams get bids. If we have end of season 2 great teams, but then 2 20-13 teams(QF winners who lose in the SF) and 2 19-13 teams- that's very tenuous in getting quite possibly even 3 bids. Even with being the 4th best conference.

And what Kirk was saying that we have no pushovers- if we have a team at 189, that's a pushover. They haven't played like a pushover- but the RPI would indicate that they are a pushover.

Where are you coming up with 189? RPI Forecast projects DePaul and Butler at 162 and 174 respectively if they lose out.

Are you really suggesting that a conference is evaluated by its weakest member or 2 after contending for some time that the bottom of the conference doesn't mean anything and that conferences are judged by what their top teams do?

The fact is that anyone who judges The Big East by DePaul and Butler will have to look themselves in the mirror because the bottom of almost every other conference is far worse than those 2 regardless of how they finish.

[Bill Marsh]

There have been a lot of comments about what MIGHT happen or what COULD happen, so I thought I'd go through the schedule and pick each game and post before tonight's game what I think the final standings WILL be and what the tournament results will be as well. So, here foes, with tie breakers factored in:

1. Creighton (15-3)
2. Villanova (15-3)
3. Xavier (12-6)
4. Marquette (10-8)
5. Providence (10-8)
6. St. John's (9-9)
7. Georgetown (7-11)
8. Seton Hall (5-13)
9. DePaul (4-14)
10. Butler (3-13)

Here's my guess at tournament results, with final record.

FIRST ROUND

Georgetown beats Butler (13-18)
Seton Hall beats DePaul (12-20)

SECOND ROUND

Creighton beats Seton Hall (15-18)
Villanova beats Georgetown (17-15)
St. John's beats Xavier (22-10)
Providence beats Marquette (18-14)

SEMI-FINALS

St. John's beats Villanova (29-4)
Creighton beats Providence (21-12)

FINALS

Creighton (28-4) beats St. John's (21-13)

[stever20]

The thing though is- conferences don't get bids. Teams get bids. If we have end of season 2 great teams, but then 2 20-13 teams(QF winners who lose in the SF) and 2 19-13 teams- that's very tenuous in getting quite possibly even 3 bids. Even with being the 4th best conference.

And what Kirk was saying that we have no pushovers- if we have a team at 189, that's a pushover. They haven't played like a pushover- but the RPI would indicate that they are a pushover.

Where are you coming up with 189? RPI Forecast projects DePaul and Butler at 162 and 174 respectively if they lose out.

Are you really suggesting that a conference is evaluated by its weakest member or 2 after contending for some time that the bottom of the conference doesn't mean anything and that conferences are judged by what their top teams do?

The fact is that anyone who judges The Big East by DePaul and Butler will have to look themselves in the mirror because the bottom of almost every other conference is far worse than those 2 regardless of how they finish.

189 would be if Butler lost out to include the BET game.

My point was Kirk was saying we have no pushovers. I'm sorry but if we have a team at 189- that's pretty close to a pushover RPI wise.

I do totally think conferences are judged by tournament teams.

[stever20]

There have been a lot of comments about what MIGHT happen or what COULD happen, so I thought I'd go through the schedule and pick each game and post before tonight's game what I think the final standings WILL be and what the tournament results will be as well. So, here foes, with tie breakers factored in:

1. Creighton (15-3)
2. Villanova (15-3)
3. Xavier (12-6)
4. Marquette (10-8)
5. Providence (10-8)
6. St. John's (9-9)
7. Georgetown (7-11)
8. Seton Hall (5-13)
9. DePaul (4-14)
10. Butler (3-13)

Here's my guess at tournament results, with final record.

FIRST ROUND

Georgetown beats Butler (13-18)
Seton Hall beats DePaul (12-20)

SECOND ROUND

Creighton beats Seton Hall (15-18)
Villanova beats Georgetown (17-15)
St. John's beats Xavier (22-10)
Providence beats Marquette (18-14)

SEMI-FINALS

St. John's beats Villanova (29-4)
Creighton beats Providence (21-12)

FINALS

Creighton (28-4) beats St. John's (21-13)

There's a lot of hope in your scenario. Hope that Xavier beats both Creighton and Villanova here next week(which by the way would not be good for the Big East). Hope that Providence beats Marquette(something they haven't done in a LONG time). If the more likely thing of neither happens, you have
Georgetown beats Butler(13-18)
Seton Hall beats DePaul(12-20)
(also, either Butler is 12-19 or DePaul is 11-21, they still have to play each other and both can't win)
Creighton beats Seton Hall(15-18)
Villanova beats Georgetown(17-15)
Then your 3/6 game is Marquette(19-12) vs Providence(19-12) and your 4/5 game is Xavier(20-11 but only 19-11 vs d1) vs St John's(20-11)

[Bill Marsh]

There have been a lot of comments about what MIGHT happen or what COULD happen, so I thought I'd go through the schedule and pick each game and post before tonight's game what I think the final standings WILL be and what the tournament results will be as well. So, here foes, with tie breakers factored in:

1. Creighton (15-3)
2. Villanova (15-3)
3. Xavier (12-6)
4. Marquette (10-8)
5. Providence (10-8)
6. St. John's (9-9)
7. Georgetown (7-11)
8. Seton Hall (5-13)
9. DePaul (4-14)
10. Butler (3-13)

Here's my guess at tournament results, with final record.

FIRST ROUND

Georgetown beats Butler (13-18)
Seton Hall beats DePaul (12-20)

SECOND ROUND

Creighton beats Seton Hall (15-18)
Villanova beats Georgetown (17-15)
St. John's beats Xavier (22-10)
Providence beats Marquette (18-14)

SEMI-FINALS

St. John's beats Villanova (29-4)
Creighton beats Providence (21-12)

FINALS

Creighton (28-4) beats St. John's (21-13)

There's a lot of hope in your scenario. Hope that Xavier beats both Creighton and Villanova here next week(which by the way would not be good for the Big East). Hope that Providence beats Marquette(something they haven't done in a LONG time). If the more likely thing of neither happens, you have
Georgetown beats Butler(13-18)
Seton Hall beats DePaul(12-20)
(also, either Butler is 12-19 or DePaul is 11-21, they still have to play each other and both can't win)
Creighton beats Seton Hall(15-18)
Villanova beats Georgetown(17-15)
Then your 3/6 game is Marquette(19-12) vs Providence(19-12) and your 4/5 game is Xavier(20-11 but only 19-11 vs d1) vs St John's(20-11)

Uhh . . .

Steve, hope has nothing to do with it. This isn't what I'm rooting for. As an objective observer and analyst, this is what I think is going to happen. I'm not saying I'll be right, but it's my best guess when I factor everything in. I was already right about PC going on the road last to grab a win over Seton Hall in a game in which The Hall was favored.

And I'm not picking based on what"will be good for the Big East." Strictly how I think the games will play out, letting the chips fall where they may.

Every year, someone goes on a late season run. This year I think it will be Xavier. They've got everything to play for on the line. They've got home court advantage ink both of their big games in the next week. Both games figure to be very tight even with Creighton and Villanova favored. I think that they will rise to the occasion and win out in the regular season.

Providence can't beat Marquette at home? Why not? They beat Creighton at home. Who cares what past PC teams have done. That's irrelevant in this game. Frankly Providence should be favored in this game. I'm not going out on a limb here.

As I calculate the final standings, Xavier-St. John's is the 3-6 game and Marquette-Providence is the 4-5 game.