If Wichita St. runs the table, do they deserve a #1 seed?

[Bill Marsh]

you and I just fundamentally disagree on the issue.

if they are 34-0 or whatever it would be, you are telling teams from conferences 10 on down it is literally impossible for you to get a number 1 seed. That, i can't agree with.

reasonable minds can differ.

Okay. Given that we are 2 guys with reasonable minds, let's probe this a little bit just for fun. Okay?

1. What would be wrong with telling lower tier conferences that it's impossible to get a #1 seed? It's not that big a deal. They're still in the tournament a and still getting a higher seed than they probably ever thought they could. It's simply telling them that if it's not possible for them to put together a highly competitive schedule during the regular season, then the committee will make sure they're well tested by the time they get to the Final Four. Why is that a bad thing?

2. It's actually not telling those conferences that it's impossible. Just that they have to go to greater lengths than WSU did with their OOC schedule. As I recall, Gonzaga put together a schedule last year that included 5 Big XII teams plus Butler and Indiana. That's why they were able to get the 1-seed when some had doubts about them.

3. Let's think for a minute what an undefeated record really means. It's simply that you have no bad losses. It says nothing about whether you have any quality wins. Which is part of the seeding criteria. When you only play 4 teams in the top 100, you don't really put yourself at much risk of picking up bad losses. But neither do you put yourself in position to pick up quality wins. Doesn't WSU have to present a resume with quality wins to get a #1 seed like everyone else? If they haven't done that, why do they deserve a #1 seed?

[Bill Marsh]

I agree with Randy although, I don't think it is obvious or what WSU did last year matters. Roughly 3000 D1 teams have tried to finish the regular season undefeated since St. Joseph and none of them have. That includes many teams with weak schedules. I conclude from this that is damn difficult. Lastly, I could care less how tough a team's schedule is. Hypothetically, if you schedule a good team and you are down to that team by, lets say, 40 points at home, well I think the Shockers wouldn't do much worse.

You may care less how tough a team's schedule is, but that committee has a set of criteria under which they've been operating. Those criteria include Strength of Schedule and Quality Wins. Should those be abandoned because what they've done is "damn difficult"?

I think that the criteria should be applied evenly and fairly across the board. WSU won't meet the criteria and I don't think an exception should be made for them.

[Bill Marsh]

People shouldn't underestimate Wichita - they play pressure D are physical all over the floor and scrap on the boards. They are as tough and physical as ANYONE in the country. Their problem this year is going to be the lack of serious competition in the Valley to prepare them for tournament play. In the past, the valley was usually 8th or 9th ranked and was up to 6th one year when they had a lot of bids. Now that Creighton is no longer in the conference, I have to wonder if they will be ready for the intensity of NCAA tournament play.

As for whether or not you can put them above the others in the top 10, I think there are two ways to look at it -- 1) how many of those teams ran to the final 4 last year and took the eventual champs deep into the game? ... and 2) if the other teams are so confident that they are better, why don't they schedule a home and away with Wichita... (yeah, that's never going to happen).

But like I said, the valley isn't good at all this year and I think it will hurt them in the NCAA's due to their lack of games where the chips are down and they have to figure out ways to win

Those other teams will indeed schedule them. Gonzaga has proven that season after season.

[IowaJay]

http://msn.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/reid-forgrave-what-i-learned-going-behind-scenes-seeds-mock-ncaa-tournament-021714

Interesting article from Fox Sports on last week's mock bracket drill by the NCAA. Also, here is what he says about Wichita State.

"- People are going to argue against Wichita State being a 1-seed, even if the Shockers make it to the NCAA tournament undefeated. Those people are wrong. As longtime Sporting News college basketball writer Mike DeCourcy put it, "You can't fake undefeated." He's right. As of now the Shockers are absolutely a 1-seed. You can't hold it against them for trying to schedule a difficult nonconference schedule, then having a few of those nonconference opponents underperform."

I don't believe that the parameters used to compare teams should be suspended until a team has at least one loss--that is, after all, the argument being put forward in the defense of WSU getting a #1 seed. For instance, what would we do *if* we had five undefeated teams going into the NCAAs? How would we justify one of those five teams not getting a #1 seed? We would compare them based on the outcomes of this year's games, right? And few would argue that the team with the fewest/least impressive wins would not be a #1 seed in that scenario. Suspending the comparison of teams until a team has a loss is simply nonsensical. It doesn't mean WSU couldn't get a #1 seed, it means that they do not automatically deserve it. An argument may be made that a team with only two wins vs. 1-50 and three wins vs. 51-100 (WSU) is not guaranteed a #1 seed over a team with five wins vs. 1-50 and six wins vs. 51-100 (Florida). I understand that a team can only defeat the teams they play. In the same instance, a team that does play a stronger schedule increases the risk of a loss. A schedule might look strong at the start of the season but prove to be weak based upon the performance of those teams at the end of the season. I'm unconvinced that SOS is a measure for teams on the bubble but not for a team that is vying for one of the top seeds.

[IowaJay]

I agree with Randy although, I don't think it is obvious or what WSU did last year matters. Roughly 3000 D1 teams have tried to finish the regular season undefeated since St. Joseph and none of them have. That includes many teams with weak schedules. I conclude from this that is damn difficult. Lastly, I could care less how tough a team's schedule is. Hypothetically, if you schedule a good team and you are down to that team by, lets say, 40 points at home, well I think the Shockers wouldn't do much worse.

You may care less how tough a team's schedule is, but that committee has a set of criteria under which they've been operating. Those criteria include Strength of Schedule and Quality Wins. Should those be abandoned because what they've done is "damn difficult"?

I think that the criteria should be applied evenly and fairly across the board. WSU won't meet the criteria and I don't think an exception should be made for them.

Agreed.

Note: I'm "IowaJay" and not "iowanjay"!

[Sumdumguy]

Yes for sure they deserve a number 1 seed. If you disagree show me your three ahead of them (Cuse is of course deserving of a No. 1) and defend all of them against the Shockers. Good luck.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... gy/detail/

Pretty interesting. Projected to be 31-0 and still have a 2% chance of being a 1 seed. I wouldn't be mad if WSU gets a 1 seed, but you asked for an argument.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I'm OK with WSU getting a #1 seed. But if that were to happen I really hope Nova is the 2 in that side of the bracket.

[chicagojayfan]

People shouldn't underestimate Wichita - they play pressure D are physical all over the floor and scrap on the boards. They are as tough and physical as ANYONE in the country. Their problem this year is going to be the lack of serious competition in the Valley to prepare them for tournament play. In the past, the valley was usually 8th or 9th ranked and was up to 6th one year when they had a lot of bids. Now that Creighton is no longer in the conference, I have to wonder if they will be ready for the intensity of NCAA tournament play.

As for whether or not you can put them above the others in the top 10, I think there are two ways to look at it -- 1) how many of those teams ran to the final 4 last year and took the eventual champs deep into the game? ... and 2) if the other teams are so confident that they are better, why don't they schedule a home and away with Wichita... (yeah, that's never going to happen).

But like I said, the valley isn't good at all this year and I think it will hurt them in the NCAA's due to their lack of games where the chips are down and they have to figure out ways to win

Those other teams will indeed schedule them. Gonzaga has proven that season after season.

Was Zaga's OOC schedule appreciably better than Wichita's this year? Real time RPI OOC for Wichita 43, Gonzaga 71.

In any case, my point was around getting a "home and away" scheduling with a team. Almost no BCS program will schedule a Wichita (or a Zaga) for that matter on a traditional home and away because they don't want to have to explain a road loss to Wichita later in the season, no matter how good a record Wichita puts together.

Wichita would be fighting with Creighton and Nova for the top of this conference if they were in the BE. Doesn't mean they are necessarily a 1 seed, but I guarantee there are a lot of potential 1 seeds who don't want them anywhere near them in their bracket.

[whiteandblue77]

I agree with you Bill:
Arizona LOST to Cal and AZ State on the road.
Florida LOST to Wisconsin and UConn on the road.
Villanova LOST to Creighton twice and Syracuse on the road.
Kansas LOST to Florida, Texas, Colorado, and KSU, on a neutral court to Villanova & to San Diego ST at home.

Wichita State is undefeated. Extremely underrated IMHO. EVERYONE saw the way they were jobbed against Louisville last year in the FF. Shockers were up handily when the Cardinals started hacking away with ZERO calls, then when Louisville got the lead WSU got whistled for everything. That was BS. That's their last loss and this year they are better. Creighton beat them two out of 3 times last year and I'm sorry to say but it was a lot closer than Villanova this year (and we lost our center). None of your above golden boys went to St. Louis this year and won either, a victory that the Shockers don't get a lot of credit for. If it's the same players coming back how do you say last season doesn't matter?

If SOS is so important then why not just anoint the Jayhawks national champs with their 6 losses? Don't matter if they lose in the dance, right?

[stever20]

actually, if they were the last #1 seed, they wouldn't be automatically matched up with the #5 team. The S curve is only done at the #1 seed. It's not automatic that it's in the regional finals 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, and 4/5.

just look last year
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NCAA_ ... Tournament

1 Louisville vs 6 Duke
4 Gonzaga vs 8 Ohio St
2 Kansas vs 7 Georgetown
3 Indiana vs 5 Miami

As to your list of 5- I'm sorry, but Villanova isn't even remotely close to the #1 line. I think right now it'd be likely Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, and then it's between Kansas and Wichita. Nova right now is likely a 3. Creighton likely ahead of them quite frankly.

It's not automatic because another team might prove themselves better in the court. But in so doing, they become the de facto #5 team.

You have your opinion, Steve, that Villanova is "not remotely close to the #1 line", bit RPI Forecast disagrees with you. The fact that there might be disagreement is precisely why I listed more than 4 teams. So, instead of nitpicking over whether Villanova belongs, make a case for why WSU does. That's the topic, not Nova.

IMO, Wichita State isn't remotely close to meeting the standard for a #1 seed that the committee has consistently held up for evaluating all teams. They would be a joke as a #1 seed. If they are given a #1 seed, it would be a sure sign that the committee has no backbone and is simply caving to public pressure.

The rankings I gave were the S-Curve rankings the committee used last year. The committee does not automatically make it where 4/5 play each other. It just doesn't.

As you have brought up here- things are a lot more than just RPI. Villanova to me isn't even right now the highest Big East team that would get seeded.

To me, Wichita getting a #1 seed is 10000 times better than last year Gonzaga gettign a #1 seed. To me, THAT was caving to public pressure.