Big East Conference Expansion Ideas and Discussion

[DudeAnon]

My understanding of the GOR's is that the BCS conference schools can't leave but the conferences can still add members. I just can't see UCONN or UC staying in the AAC for more than a year or two. They are both too established and in good enough markets for it.

[BillikensWin]

My understanding of the GOR's is that the BCS conference schools can't leave but the conferences can still add members. I just can't see UCONN or UC staying in the AAC for more than a year or two. They are both too established and in good enough markets for it.

I read it the same way as you, but what it does preclude is BCS leagues poaching each other, which will slow down realignment overall.

[Xudash]

My understanding of the GOR's is that the BCS conference schools can't leave but the conferences can still add members. I just can't see UCONN or UC staying in the AAC for more than a year or two. They are both too established and in good enough markets for it.

UC isn't as established as you may think. They're putting approx. $80 million into an upgrade of Nippert Stadium. It will be nice, but it will remain too small at 40k seats. The upgrade essentially is about high-end suites, etc. Beyond that, UC's attendance for both football and basketball is questionable at best. Xavier achieves higher attendance figures, and that's going up against a school that is almost 10 times the size of X's undergraduate population.

I have no data on UCONN, as I don't follow them in football and barely catch them on TV in hoops.

Beyond all this, at least in UC's case and by process of elimination:

The PAC12 isn't taking them.
The SEC isn't taking them.
The ACC isn't taking them.
With Ohio State about 100 miles up I-71, there is no way the B1G will take them, and they don't meet the B1G's academic profile anyway.

That leaves the Big12. How is UC going to add enough to the Big12's television deal to warrant its inclusion? I'll ask the same question assuming that UCONN and UC are a package deal. They won't move the needle sufficiently to make financial sense to the Big12, and they would further muck-up the travel problem in the conference.

I love Cincinnati. It's a beautiful city. It's MSA measures in at approx. 2.2 million. That can't possibly move a television package that already has 10 teams in the denominator. And I suspect that there are few fans of any of the Big12 schools who are salivating right now about having the Bearcats come to town.

Frankly, UC did a fabulous job with its football program in recent time, compared to what it had been for about forever. It hired solid coaches and really boosted itself through its affiliation with the old Big East. I don't know what they're thinking, dumping $80 million into Nippert, especially given that 5th/3rd Arena presently is getting raked over the coals because of its age and construction.

Maybe it happens IF the NCAA tells the Big12 it has to go to 12 and stage a playoff game. I don't know that the NCAA has such authority. I also believe Texas wants no part of a championship game for the conference at this point. Why complicate the path to one of the 4 slots that truly matter, assuming your regular season sets you up for participation otherwise - - who knows.

[HoosierPal]

More Rick Majerus prescience, in addition to his 2009/10 prediction of the Big East split discussed earlier in this thread.

If you have the opportunity, read his biography, My Life On A Napkin. The man was a genius behind the X's and O's of basketball. His most famous, or perhaps better to say, most repeated, quote was his comment about Rudy Gay's game, when Gay was at Connecticut' "I'm not a big Gay guy."

[Bill Marsh]

Congrats to Billikens fans, Crews, and Majerus (RIP). Great work.

To the football schools; realignment is likely shelved for a while. Every major conference except the SEC has signed a "grant of rights" agreement going into effect next season that means they can't leave. There will be no SEC/PAC12 poaching the Big 12, no B1G poaching the ACC, and (once the ACC is at 16) no ACC poaching the AAC. I don't know how long they last, but my guess is 5 year minimum and more likely 10. I doubt there will be too much movement in the immediate future.

WOW! Forgot about the GORs. Nice catch.

To your point, assuming the GOR is firmly in place for the Big12, which I presume it is based on your post, and certainly based on UT being satisfied with the current B12 structure, there probably is no reason to believe that anything will happen within the current new contract cycle. The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) lasted from 1998 to 2013. The new playoff system is contracted to be in place through at least the 2025 season.

We go from the BCS to the CFP, and we go to it with UCONN, UC and a few others being very, very big losers.

Bill, I believe it is enough of a long shot as to not waste too much time typing about the idea of any of these football schools ever ending up in the Big East, but I actually believe the MAC would take UC and UCONN in a heartbeat just to provide the conference a little more visibility and credibility. The MAC has allowed members in on a basis other than all-sports before. The MAC certainly is no panacea for football, but you asked.

Yes, the MAC would take them in a heart beat. But they would never go there. It would reduce their football profile even further and would make it absolutely impossible for them to jump up to a P5 conference.

Then there's. The money. UConn, UC, and USF have been raking in money from this conference realignment. Louisville and Rutgers will be paying exit fees to the AAC. Such payments are. Typically leaving in installments. No way that UConn isn't hanging around to collect their share. And there will be NCAA tournament credits that pay out over 6 years. As well as the Old Big east did in recent years, that's a huge chunk of change every year. No way they are leaving even for a bigger TV package while all that money keeps rolling in - especially when they'd have to pay exit and entrance fees to do it.

[marquette]

My understanding of the GOR's is that the BCS conference schools can't leave but the conferences can still add members. I just can't see UCONN or UC staying in the AAC for more than a year or two. They are both too established and in good enough markets for it.

Correct. The GOR's really only stop the P5 from poaching each other. My basis for believing movement is shelved for now is that nobody in the P5 is interested in what's out there right now. The B1G has no interest in UConn, Cinncy, Memphis, or Temple. They may have an interest in Louisville, and they definitely have an interest in Notre Dame, but the GOR stops that. The Big 12 hasn't shown any interest in getting to 12 again, and there isn't really anyone that makes geographic sense. The SEC is not interested in anything out there as it will water down their product. PAC12 is not probably adding anybody, but if they do it would not come from the AAC. The ACC is at 16, with no incentive to grow larger.

[Jet915]

I can see maybe the Big XII poaching BYU and Cincinnati IF they were forced to have a football championship game. That would definitely put the heat on UCONN who would be stuck in the AAC.

[aughnanure]

I can see maybe the Big XII poaching BYU and Cincinnati IF they were forced to have a football championship game. That would definitely put the heat on UCONN who would be stuck in the AAC.

I'm from Big XII country (KC) and I can tell you they are all regretting the TCU add. Louisville should have always been it. And they should've reached out to Pitt early in the process when Pitt could have still changed directions. Could've had a solid western Midwest division w/ WVU, Pitt, Cincy, and Louisville. That league will not be around in 15 years. So sad. Should have been a great middle of the country league with Arkansas from the beginning.

Crazy to think about, but at one point the Big East offered Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri invites when it looked like it was gonna fall apart when Texas, OU, OSU, and A&M almost left for the PAC-10. It was literally the Big 12 North school's backup plan. They were legit take it. There was some hope the ACC would grab Mizzou/Kansas, but not the guaranteed deal the Big East gave all 4 of them.

[Bill Marsh]

I can see maybe the Big XII poaching BYU and Cincinnati IF they were forced to have a football championship game. That would definitely put the heat on UCONN who would be stuck in the AAC.

I'm from Big XII country (KC) and I can tell you they are all regretting the TCU add. Louisville should have always been it. And they should've reached out to Pitt early in the process when Pitt could have still changed directions. Could've had a solid western Midwest division w/ WVU, Pitt, Cincy, and Louisville. That league will not be around in 15 years. So sad. Should have been a great middle of the country league with Arkansas from the beginning.

Crazy to think about, but at one point the Big East offered Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri invites when it looked like it was gonna fall apart when Texas, OU, OSU, and A&M almost left for the PAC-10. It was literally the Big 12 North school's backup plan. They were legit take it. There was some hope the ACC would grab Mizzou/Kansas, but not the guaranteed deal the Big East gave all 4 of them.

So, if that league won't be around in 15 years, I'm actually seeing the potential for a more basketball oriented all sports league to emerge out of the ashes. Assuming that Texas and Oklahoma will find a home somewhere else, how about this league:

WEST

Kansas
K State
Iowa State
Baylor
BYU
Memphis

EAST

UConn
Temple
West Virginia
Cincinnati
USF
UCF

[aughnanure]

I can see maybe the Big XII poaching BYU and Cincinnati IF they were forced to have a football championship game. That would definitely put the heat on UCONN who would be stuck in the AAC.

I'm from Big XII country (KC) and I can tell you they are all regretting the TCU add. Louisville should have always been it. And they should've reached out to Pitt early in the process when Pitt could have still changed directions. Could've had a solid western Midwest division w/ WVU, Pitt, Cincy, and Louisville. That league will not be around in 15 years. So sad. Should have been a great middle of the country league with Arkansas from the beginning.

Crazy to think about, but at one point the Big East offered Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri invites when it looked like it was gonna fall apart when Texas, OU, OSU, and A&M almost left for the PAC-10. It was literally the Big 12 North school's backup plan. They were legit take it. There was some hope the ACC would grab Mizzou/Kansas, but not the guaranteed deal the Big East gave all 4 of them.

So, if that league won't be around in 15 years, I'm actually seeing the potential for a more basketball oriented all sports league to emerge out of the ashes. Assuming that Texas and Oklahoma will find a home somewhere else, how about this league:

WEST

Kansas
K State
Iowa State
Baylor
BYU
Memphis

EAST

UConn
Temple
West Virginia
Cincinnati
USF
UCF

I really can't see Kansas and UConn left for dead...at least for long. Someone, like the Big 10 or the SEC, would grab them. West Virginia even seems like a stretch (flagship state schools are hard to come by nowadays), especially if all these conference have to get to 16 eventually.

East: UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Houston, Temple, Memphis ....UMass?
West: SMU, Kansas St, TCU, Baylor, Iowa St, BYU....UNLV, Boise, New Mexico?