3 Teams Now Solidly On the Bubble

[Bill Marsh]

Bluejay, I would disagree to some extent. I would suggest that the committee doesn't care about noncon SOS per se. What they care about is overall SOS.

Overall SOS matters too, but the Committee cares more about non-conference SOS, as this is the part of a team's schedule that they can control (also, mid-majors aren't at as much of a disadvantage then).

http://www.outsports.com/2012/1/4/40523 ... tendencies

That's from 2001. Jeff Hathaway reiterated this point in 2011 when he was chair.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... -criterion

Mike Bobinski talked about it again in 2013 when he was chair: "It is by no means an all or nothing proposition, but it's an important part of our evaluation, for sure."

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men ... e-bobinski

Your first link is to an article about Jonathan Vilma. I don't understand it's relevance.

Your second link focused on issues related to Memphis while they were still in CUSA, a truly awful basketball conference and one which absolutely required its members to schedule strong OOC if they wanted to be taken seriously by the committee.

Bobinski was totally diplomatic in his comments and pretty much said absolutely nothing. Of course SOS is something they look at, but what role it plays was left completely up to the listener to decide.

I absolutely guarantee you that OOC SOS is absolutely a non-issue for teams from power conference. Overall SOS is the only thing that matters. OOC SOS is going to affect overall SOS, so it does come into play, but when St. John's has an overall SOS of 37, the fact that their OOC is only 121 is a complete non-issue. The only thing that will matter is if someone has a stronger overall SOS than they do. With schools like Syracuse and Wisconsin on their OOC schedule, they obviously didn't schedule only cream puffs. That will be noticed. As will the fact that they played extremely well against Syracuse.

[stever20]

this guy is legit. i've been following him for years...


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Interesting that he already has Xavier in the tournament. It's a high likelihood at this point, I think at least over 90%, but I wouldn't put it at 100%.

One point on this- it's thru Sun night. So I think you can safely take PC out and put Georgetown in their place.

Also he's estimating 20 1 bid conferences. I think that number is a smidge low. I know in Joe Lunardi's bracketology, he's got 10 multi bid conferences, which would mean 22 1 bid conferences. So you would take out Providence and Dayton. now actually add 1 back, as Southern Miss would be 1. So, take Dayton out.

[HoosierPal]

Last year four At Large teams with 20 wins made the tourney. The highest number of losses for an At-Large team was 13. Thirteen losses seems historically to be an outlier though. These wins and losses includes all conference tourney games.

Current records:
Xavier 17-7
Providence 16-9
St. Johns 16-9
Georgetown 15-9

On the flip side, 25-9 Southern Mississippi, with an RPI of 31, did not dance. There are no guarantees.

In the eight power conferences likely to dominate the At-Large Bids, there are already ten 20 win teams, with more to join this weekend. I won't be surprised if it takes 21 W's as the fewest for an At Large team this year.

[NJRedman]

Bluejay, I would disagree to some extent. I would suggest that the committee doesn't care about noncon SOS per se. What they care about is overall SOS.

Overall SOS matters too, but the Committee cares more about non-conference SOS, as this is the part of a team's schedule that they can control (also, mid-majors aren't at as much of a disadvantage then).

http://www.outsports.com/2012/1/4/40523 ... tendencies

That's from 2001. Jeff Hathaway reiterated this point in 2011 when he was chair.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... -criterion

Mike Bobinski talked about it again in 2013 when he was chair: "It is by no means an all or nothing proposition, but it's an important part of our evaluation, for sure."

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men ... e-bobinski

What are you talking about? Overall SOS is definitely more important to non-con SOS. The old Big East didn't have to have a murders row of OOC games, because they had a great conference schedule to carry their SOS. We sent 11 teams to the NCAA a few years ago because the league was so strong. The ACC doesn't have to do that either now that Cuse, Pitt and ND have come on and with UofL looming they wont have to going forward either. It seems you are still stuck in mid-major mode here. OOC SOS doesn't mean all that much, no matter what you say. Overall SOS is what really matters.

[stever20]

The conference SOS isn't what it used to be...

look at our top 7 teams- their conference SOS
Villanova 84
Creighton 81
Xavier 58
Georgetown 78
Providence 38
St John's 36
Marquette 62

now compare to last year- 14/15 teams in the top 33 in the country in Conference SOS. 15th was UConn at 55th.

So, our conference SOS isn't what it used to be. It's why our teams are going to have to up their schedules to be able to get in the tourney. It's why Georgetown has a lot of wiggle room here, while St John's or Providence with their mediocre OOC schedules have no margin for error here.

[XUFan09]

I was reading two threads at once, thus the Jonathan Vilma mix-up. Here's the first link:

http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.d ... =208066217

"[Mike Tranghese] cited weak non-conference schedules as the reason teams such as Alabama and Richmond were kept out of the field, and Georgetown was seeded No. 10 in the West Region after entering the week ranked No. 18."

And this isn't a "mid-major thinking" (a phrase that is thrown around without thought on this board). On another thread, I used the ACC's Virginia and the Big 10's Iowa as teams in 2013 that were hurt by poor non-conference scheduling, despite winning 23 and 25 wins respectively. Virginia is a borderline case, the perfect example of how weak the bubble is, but Iowa looked like a tournament team, except for non-conference SOS and conference record (.500).

[stever20]

I was reading two threads at once, thus the Jonathan Vilma mix-up. Here's the first link:

http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.d ... =208066217

"[Mike Tranghese] cited weak non-conference schedules as the reason teams such as Alabama and Richmond were kept out of the field, and Georgetown was seeded No. 10 in the West Region after entering the week ranked No. 18."

And this isn't a "mid-major thinking" (a phrase that is thrown around without thought on this board). On another thread, I used the ACC's Virginia and the Big 10's Iowa as teams in 2013 that were hurt by poor non-conference scheduling, despite winning 23 and 25 wins respectively. Virginia is a borderline case, the perfect example of how weak the bubble is, but Iowa looked like a tournament team, except for non-conference SOS and conference record (.500).

Virginia and Iowa did not win 23 and 25 regular season games. You are using their NIT wins....

Virginia was done in because they had 2 dreadful losses to 300+ teams. If they had won those games but lose 2 other decent games- they almost for sure are in.

[TheDon]

In the end I think we'll get 4 in. It's probably more important that the teams who do dance make some noise.

[marquette]

Palm currently has us with 5. G'town (Play in), Xavier (8), Providence (11), Creighton (3), Nova (2). PC and G'town on the bubble.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[gosports1]

Palm currently has us with 5. G'town (Play in), Xavier (8), Providence (11), Creighton (3), Nova (2). PC and G'town on the bubble.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Lunardi also has 5 in.