Thurs 2/13 BE, 2 Games (CU-BU, SJU-SHU).

[stever20]

2 points on Virginia and Iowa...

Virginia- their record was 21-11 on selection Sunday.
Iowa- their record was 21-12 on selection Sunday

as Bill said, they had +60 RPI's. That's just not good enough.

Now for St John's this year. If they are 19-12 their RPI is projected at #69. Their projected SOS is not #37, but #52(they still have Butler and DePaul left). I think the selection committee EASILY ignores them at that record.

What are you talking about? They are right now 57 in RPI with an SOS of 33, not 52. Projections don't mean shit. We were projected to lose most of the games we just won. Reality is all that matters and right now we are 57 in the RPI with an SOS of 33. We are right behind Gtown in both of those categories.

Actually, SOS would be very easy to project. Also, St John's has left the 2 worst teams in the league which will drag down their SOS. 2 of the final 6 games are against losing teams. It's easy to see how they would fall some in SOS. Compare to Georgetown who has of their final 6 games 0 losing teams and the top 3 and 5 of the 6 teams that have at least .500 conference records. So it's easy to see how Georgetown will be going up in their SOS while St John's will go down the last few weeks.

[XUFan09]

2 points on Virginia and Iowa...

Virginia- their record was 21-11 on selection Sunday.
Iowa- their record was 21-12 on selection Sunday

as Bill said, they had +60 RPI's. That's just not good enough.

Now for St John's this year. If they are 19-12 their RPI is projected at #69. Their projected SOS is not #37, but #52(they still have Butler and DePaul left). I think the selection committee EASILY ignores them at that record.

What are you talking about? They are right now 57 in RPI with an SOS of 33, not 52. Projections don't mean shit. We were projected to lose most of the games we just won. Reality is all that matters and right now we are 57 in the RPI with an SOS of 33. We are right behind Gtown in both of those categories.

Your projected SOS isn't exactly something you have much control over. You have two RPI 100+ opponents still to play (and at home too), which is why your SOS is going to fall some.

[BigEast1]

In fairness to SHU fans, last night the University cancelled all of the student buses from campus to the arena. Even the band didn't get to the Prudential Center b/c of this.

[XUFan09]

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

Last year, the committee went with chalk. They only deviated from RPI once and that's when they didn't take Southern Mississippi. Virginia and Iowa didn't get in because they weren't that good, putting up RPIs of 76 and 81 respectively. Neither of them were even on the bubble. OOC SOS played into their overall SOS and into their RPI but that's about it. It's not like either of them was in a position to be invited had it not been for their OOC SOS.

The committee coincidentally went with chalk for the most part, as they don't directly use RPI (only to put wins and losses in proper brackets). Because of this indirect use and because tournament-bound teams simply win more games in general and win more games against good opponents, it's a solid correlation that you're using to predict the tournament field. It isn't causal, though, and outliers do regularly occur (more than just one usually).

This part isn't true; UVA and Iowa were one of the final 6 out: "The Cavaliers were among six teams Bobinski listed as the final teams out. The others were Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa, Southern Mississippi and Tennessee."

http://articles.dailypress.com/2013-03- ... d-virginia

Just to finish up though, this article is in large part where I'm coming from. Bobinski specifically mentions the non-conference SOS first when talking about UVA's negatives. He also mentions the bad losses, but they aren't alone in that among bubble teams (although they may be worse than most, which is why I think Iowa is a better example). The author also correctly notes a trend:


"Virginia's exclusion comes as little surprise. The selection committee has a history of rewarding so called 'mid-major' programs that play credible schedules and perform well on the road — Middle Tennessee State is 11-3 on the road, Virginia 3-8, albeit against far stiffer competition.

Moreover, the panel is prone to punish teams from the big-six conferences for tame non-conference schedules. See Virginia Tech for Exhibit A."


Virginia Tech's string of bubble failures is a really good example actually, as Seth Greenberg never scheduled well out of conference and it came back to haunt him.

To sum up, non-conference SOS is important and is evaluated separately from overall SOS, even for teams from major conferences. It's like how overall record matters, but so does conference record specifically.

[ChelseaFriar]

Reported attendance for SH/SJ game was 5,636? That seems high, no? Are they reporting ticket sales or actual attendance?

PC played Butler during a snowstorm and the reported attendance was 2,022, which would be close to actual attendance and much less than ticket sales.

Is there any consistency with how attendance figures are posted?

[XUFan09]

Reported attendance for SH/SJ game was 5,636? That seems high, no? Are they reporting ticket sales or actual attendance?

PC played Butler during a snowstorm and the reported attendance was 2,022, which would be close to actual attendance and much less than ticket sales.

Is there any consistency with how attendance figures are posted?

There are three ways to calculate attendance:

1) Ticket sales. Some places account for the entire student section, no matter what, while others (I believe most) only account for the tickets actually claimed.
2) Turnstile count (IMO the only way that attendance should be tracked, but whatever).
3) Estimated attendance. You heard that right. Sounds like bullsh--, huh?

A thanks to XUBrew on Xavier Hoops for this info. He knows his stuff so if I got something wrong, it's not his fault but my fault in the recall of what he said.

[Bluejay]

This is simply not true. The committee cares about overall SOS. The mid majors have gotten a lot of publicity because they DO need strong non-conference SOS. But that's only because they have to compensate for weak in-conference SOS. That's not a problem for any of the Big East schools.

St. John's overall expected SOS is #37. Do you seriously think that the selection committee is going to penalize a team that played the 37th toughest schedule in the country?

If St. John's continues to win, they'll be fine.

Your assertion that it is not true is simply not true, as I responded in another thread. For the past dozen years or so, it's been a big deal. It's not just about mid-majors either. Just ask UVA from last year:

23-12, 11-7 in conference. They had a number of bad losses but so did most of the other bubble teams. They also had a nice collection of good to great wins, and their efficiency numbers (Kenpom 40, Sagarin 48) were solid for a bubble team.

An even better example is Iowa:

25-13, 9-9 in conference. Only two bad losses, which is pretty good for a bubble team. They had a handful of good wins to easily balance that out, and their efficiency numbers (Kenpom 25, Sagarin 28) were great, much better than just about every bubble team.

Both these teams had shitty non-conference schedules overall, even though they both got at least one good win in the non-conference slate. Now, St. John's non-conference SOS won't be nearly as bad as theirs, but these two teams had 23 and 25 wins respectively. As comparison, I was talking about a potential 19-win St. John's team.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

Last year, the committee went with chalk. They only deviated from RPI once and that's when they didn't take Southern Mississippi. Virginia and Iowa didn't get in because they weren't that good, putting up RPIs of 76 and 81 respectively. Neither of them were even on the bubble. OOC SOS played into their overall SOS and into their RPI but that's about it. It's not like either of them was in a position to be invited had it not been for their OOC SOS.

Sorry Bill, but you don't know what you are talking about. In addition to the teams XUfan mentioned, I know of three others.

A few years ago, Kansas St was left out of the tournament and the committee specifically said it was because of their weak noncon SOS.

About two or three years ago, Colorado was one of the first teams OUT. Reason provided by the committee chairperson: weak noncon SOS.

Same thing with respect to Florida St about five years ago.

Noncon SOS has been a huge deal the last several years because it is the only part of your schedule that you can change.