Thurs 2/13 BE, 2 Games (CU-BU, SJU-SHU).

[Bill Marsh]

Shocked that Obekpa made a FT…let alone with the game and possibly a bid on the line. Good for him. He is one guy we constantly said needs to develop some semblance of an offensive game. Somehow, some way, he is now a factor in the paint not just defending but scoring. That has absolutely been key. Thank god Jordan came back and appears to be decent enough to play. Branch didn't play today but will be fine for Sunday. We need all hands on deck for G'Town. Man, if we win that game it will really make me think I'm dreaming. Every time in my life I've seen SJU play G'Town they not only beat us, but turn it into a laugher. Seton Hall has always given us lots of trouble but we usually come out with the tight wins. G'Town gives us headaches and almost always blow us out.

It helps knowing we will be at MSG where we play our best ball, but I'm not feeling optimistic at all. If we can somehow go 3-3 in our final 6 games with Nova being one of those wins, I think we can be in without winning a tourney game. I know that would give us 19-12 (9-9) and the magic number is usually 20 or 21 but beating the #12 and #5 teams in addition to rock solid Marquette and PC, our RPI, and SOS would do it. If we lose to Nova i think 4-2 gets us in even without a BET win. That would put us at 20-11 (10-8) with a signature win vs. #12 Creighton, a great SOS and a good RPI.

This suddenly seems like it is actually within the realm of possibility. G'Town and Nova will give us opportunities to win now and not rely on the BET.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20John's.html

Your expected non-conference SOS is 142nd. When the Selection Committee is picking teams off the bubble, non-conference SOS and conference record (yours being only .500 in this scenario) are really important, and your combo in that regard would not look too good. If they Johnnies go 3-3 the rest of the way, they have to do well in the conference tournament.

This is simply not true. The committee cares about overall SOS. The mid majors have gotten a lot of publicity because they DO need strong non-conference SOS. But that's only because they have to compensate for weak in-conference SOS. That's not a problem for any of the Big East schools.

St. John's overall expected SOS is #37. Do you seriously think that the selection committee is going to penalize a team that played the 37th toughest schedule in the country?

If St. John's continues to win, they'll be fine.

[theNEWbigeast]

I also think our big comeback and being a team that the committee would really benefit from having in the tourney would help. When an NYC team is good in any major sport it's great for the sport. Assuming we go .500 and get the 20 wins I think there's a shot we get in. Win 1 game in the BET and lock it up.

Do you really think that the Committee considers stuff like "we should put a NYC team in because it'll be good for the sport."? God, I hope not. And I sincerely doubt it's a part of the discussion.

That being said, and with fictional geographical advantages aside, I agree that if SJU gets to 20 wins and a .500 or above record in-conference that they will get a bid. The tipping point is the fact that the Johnnies will have finished so strongly. That is something the Committee SHOULD pay attention to, and does.

[NJRedman]

I also think our big comeback and being a team that the committee would really benefit from having in the tourney would help. When an NYC team is good in any major sport it's great for the sport. Assuming we go .500 and get the 20 wins I think there's a shot we get in. Win 1 game in the BET and lock it up.

Do you really think that the Committee considers stuff like "we should put a NYC team in because it'll be good for the sport."? God, I hope not. And I sincerely doubt it's a part of the discussion.

That being said, and with fictional geographical advantages aside, I agree that if SJU gets to 20 wins and a .500 or above record in-conference that they will get a bid. The tipping point is the fact that the Johnnies will have finished so strongly. That is something the Committee SHOULD pay attention to, and does.

No, but if the committee has two teams with the same record and similar numbers and one is red hot and one is middling, they will take the red hot team every time.

[redmen9194]

I'm not sure 20 wins gets us in without one of those wins being Villanova. We would likely need at least a game in the BET.

[XUFan09]

Shocked that Obekpa made a FT…let alone with the game and possibly a bid on the line. Good for him. He is one guy we constantly said needs to develop some semblance of an offensive game. Somehow, some way, he is now a factor in the paint not just defending but scoring. That has absolutely been key. Thank god Jordan came back and appears to be decent enough to play. Branch didn't play today but will be fine for Sunday. We need all hands on deck for G'Town. Man, if we win that game it will really make me think I'm dreaming. Every time in my life I've seen SJU play G'Town they not only beat us, but turn it into a laugher. Seton Hall has always given us lots of trouble but we usually come out with the tight wins. G'Town gives us headaches and almost always blow us out.

It helps knowing we will be at MSG where we play our best ball, but I'm not feeling optimistic at all. If we can somehow go 3-3 in our final 6 games with Nova being one of those wins, I think we can be in without winning a tourney game. I know that would give us 19-12 (9-9) and the magic number is usually 20 or 21 but beating the #12 and #5 teams in addition to rock solid Marquette and PC, our RPI, and SOS would do it. If we lose to Nova i think 4-2 gets us in even without a BET win. That would put us at 20-11 (10-8) with a signature win vs. #12 Creighton, a great SOS and a good RPI.

This suddenly seems like it is actually within the realm of possibility. G'Town and Nova will give us opportunities to win now and not rely on the BET.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20John's.html

Your expected non-conference SOS is 142nd. When the Selection Committee is picking teams off the bubble, non-conference SOS and conference record (yours being only .500 in this scenario) are really important, and your combo in that regard would not look too good. If they Johnnies go 3-3 the rest of the way, they have to do well in the conference tournament.

You can take any stat and make a team look bad. Bottom line is that 20+ wins and .500+ in the conference with a signature win vs. #12 Creighton and a ridiculous schedule playing Cuse, Wisconsin, Nova twice, G'Town twice, Creighton twice, etc. will do it. We get used to a certain level of competitiveness in the Big East but the bottom line is that very very few teams have that SOS. Our RPI is going to be in the 50's if not lower unless we blow games vs. Butler or DePaul, our BPI is 48. We have a much better shot than you think. 20 wins and .500 or better in the Big East is no small feat. I also think our big comeback and being a team that the committee would really benefit from having in the tourney would help. When an NYC team is good in any major sport it's great for the sport. Assuming we go .500 and get the 20 wins I think there's a shot we get in. Win 1 game in the BET and lock it up.

You changed the number of wins to 20. I was responding to when you said you thought they could get in with 19 wins and no conference tournament wins.

[XUFan09]

Shocked that Obekpa made a FT…let alone with the game and possibly a bid on the line. Good for him. He is one guy we constantly said needs to develop some semblance of an offensive game. Somehow, some way, he is now a factor in the paint not just defending but scoring. That has absolutely been key. Thank god Jordan came back and appears to be decent enough to play. Branch didn't play today but will be fine for Sunday. We need all hands on deck for G'Town. Man, if we win that game it will really make me think I'm dreaming. Every time in my life I've seen SJU play G'Town they not only beat us, but turn it into a laugher. Seton Hall has always given us lots of trouble but we usually come out with the tight wins. G'Town gives us headaches and almost always blow us out.

It helps knowing we will be at MSG where we play our best ball, but I'm not feeling optimistic at all. If we can somehow go 3-3 in our final 6 games with Nova being one of those wins, I think we can be in without winning a tourney game. I know that would give us 19-12 (9-9) and the magic number is usually 20 or 21 but beating the #12 and #5 teams in addition to rock solid Marquette and PC, our RPI, and SOS would do it. If we lose to Nova i think 4-2 gets us in even without a BET win. That would put us at 20-11 (10-8) with a signature win vs. #12 Creighton, a great SOS and a good RPI.

This suddenly seems like it is actually within the realm of possibility. G'Town and Nova will give us opportunities to win now and not rely on the BET.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20John's.html

Your expected non-conference SOS is 142nd. When the Selection Committee is picking teams off the bubble, non-conference SOS and conference record (yours being only .500 in this scenario) are really important, and your combo in that regard would not look too good. If they Johnnies go 3-3 the rest of the way, they have to do well in the conference tournament.

This is simply not true. The committee cares about overall SOS. The mid majors have gotten a lot of publicity because they DO need strong non-conference SOS. But that's only because they have to compensate for weak in-conference SOS. That's not a problem for any of the Big East schools.

St. John's overall expected SOS is #37. Do you seriously think that the selection committee is going to penalize a team that played the 37th toughest schedule in the country?

If St. John's continues to win, they'll be fine.

Your assertion that it is not true is simply not true, as I responded in another thread. For the past dozen years or so, it's been a big deal. It's not just about mid-majors either. Just ask UVA from last year:

23-12, 11-7 in conference. They had a number of bad losses but so did most of the other bubble teams. They also had a nice collection of good to great wins, and their efficiency numbers (Kenpom 40, Sagarin 48) were solid for a bubble team.

An even better example is Iowa:

25-13, 9-9 in conference. Only two bad losses, which is pretty good for a bubble team. They had a handful of good wins to easily balance that out, and their efficiency numbers (Kenpom 25, Sagarin 28) were great, much better than just about every bubble team.

Both these teams had shitty non-conference schedules overall, even though they both got at least one good win in the non-conference slate. Now, St. John's non-conference SOS won't be nearly as bad as theirs, but these two teams had 23 and 25 wins respectively. As comparison, I was talking about a potential 19-win St. John's team.

[Bill Marsh]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20John's.html

Your expected non-conference SOS is 142nd. When the Selection Committee is picking teams off the bubble, non-conference SOS and conference record (yours being only .500 in this scenario) are really important, and your combo in that regard would not look too good. If they Johnnies go 3-3 the rest of the way, they have to do well in the conference tournament.

This is simply not true. The committee cares about overall SOS. The mid majors have gotten a lot of publicity because they DO need strong non-conference SOS. But that's only because they have to compensate for weak in-conference SOS. That's not a problem for any of the Big East schools.

St. John's overall expected SOS is #37. Do you seriously think that the selection committee is going to penalize a team that played the 37th toughest schedule in the country?

If St. John's continues to win, they'll be fine.

Your assertion that it is not true is simply not true, as I responded in another thread. For the past dozen years or so, it's been a big deal. It's not just about mid-majors either. Just ask UVA from last year:

23-12, 11-7 in conference. They had a number of bad losses but so did most of the other bubble teams. They also had a nice collection of good to great wins, and their efficiency numbers (Kenpom 40, Sagarin 48) were solid for a bubble team.

An even better example is Iowa:

25-13, 9-9 in conference. Only two bad losses, which is pretty good for a bubble team. They had a handful of good wins to easily balance that out, and their efficiency numbers (Kenpom 25, Sagarin 28) were great, much better than just about every bubble team.

Both these teams had shitty non-conference schedules overall, even though they both got at least one good win in the non-conference slate. Now, St. John's non-conference SOS won't be nearly as bad as theirs, but these two teams had 23 and 25 wins respectively. As comparison, I was talking about a potential 19-win St. John's team.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

Last year, the committee went with chalk. They only deviated from RPI once and that's when they didn't take Southern Mississippi. Virginia and Iowa didn't get in because they weren't that good, putting up RPIs of 76 and 81 respectively. Neither of them were even on the bubble. OOC SOS played into their overall SOS and into their RPI but that's about it. It's not like either of them was in a position to be invited had it not been for their OOC SOS.

[stever20]

2 points on Virginia and Iowa...

Virginia- their record was 21-11 on selection Sunday.
Iowa- their record was 21-12 on selection Sunday

as Bill said, they had +60 RPI's. That's just not good enough.

Now for St John's this year. If they are 19-12 their RPI is projected at #69. Their projected SOS is not #37, but #52(they still have Butler and DePaul left). I think the selection committee EASILY ignores them at that record.

[RedStormNation]

I'm not sure 20 wins gets us in without one of those wins being Villanova. We would likely need at least a game in the BET.

The Nova game is by no means a must win. That is the 1 game we can afford to lose and as long as we take care of business against the rest we will be fine. We can technically afford losses to Nova and G'Town as the 2 losses going 4-2 down the stretch meaning we'd need to beat Butler, Marquette, DePaul, and Xavier which seems much more doable than Nova or G'Town. Beating Nova is not even close to a requirement. Beating Nova would force the committee to seriously discuss our at large big even with 19 wins IMO. Beating the #5, #12, #35 (PC at the time), and other solid teams like Marquette would put us over the top. The Xavier fan saying they focus on OOC SOS specifically is ridiculous. It's your overall SOS they care about. We played the #1 team in the nation, the #4 team in the nation, the #5 team in the nation, the #12 team in the nation, etc. etc. Cuse, Wisconsin, Nova, Creighton, etc. That is absolutely brutal. Out of 345 teams only about 30 or so will have played a tougher schedule nationally. To say that our SOS will hurt us is just wrong. It will be our savior if we need a nudge to get us in.

[NJRedman]

2 points on Virginia and Iowa...

Virginia- their record was 21-11 on selection Sunday.
Iowa- their record was 21-12 on selection Sunday

as Bill said, they had +60 RPI's. That's just not good enough.

Now for St John's this year. If they are 19-12 their RPI is projected at #69. Their projected SOS is not #37, but #52(they still have Butler and DePaul left). I think the selection committee EASILY ignores them at that record.

What are you talking about? They are right now 57 in RPI with an SOS of 33, not 52. Projections don't mean shit. We were projected to lose most of the games we just won. Reality is all that matters and right now we are 57 in the RPI with an SOS of 33. We are right behind Gtown in both of those categories.