Ken Pom after tonight

[stever20]

Thought it'd be fun to go back and just look at this for comparison:
Villanova #8. 11-1 so far, plus 13-5 projected. 24-6(plus Temple) Lock
real life- #8 9-1 in conference plus did beat Temple. 21-2 with 8 games left.

Creighton #16 9-2 so far, plus 12-6 projected. 21-8(plus Chi St). Lock
real life- #4 9-2 in conference- plus beat Chi St. 19-4 with 7 games left.

Georgetown #28 8-3 so far, plus 11-7 projected. 19-10(plus Mich St) lock
real life- #53 5-6 in conference- plus beat Mich St 14-9 with 7 games left

Xavier #39 10-3 so far, plus 10-8 projected 20-11
real life- #42 6-4 in conference. 16-7 with 8 games left.

Marquette #42 8-5 so far plus 10-8 projected 18-13
real life- #56 5-5 in conference. 13-10 with 8 games left

Butler #50 10-2 so far plus 9-9 projected 19-11. May need win vs Georgetown to get in tourney
real life- #97 2-9 in conference. 12-11 with 7 games left

St John's #56. 9-3 so far plus 8-10 projected 17-13(plus Dartmouth) NIT
real life- #40 5-6 in conference- plus beat Dartmouth. 15-9 with 7 games left

Providence #66. 10-3 so far plus 8-10 projected 18-13 NIT
real life #52 6-5 in conference. 16-8 with 7 games left

Seton Hall #119 9-4 so far plus 5-13 projected 14-17. No postseason
real life #82 4-6 in conference. 13-10 with 8 games left

DePaul #134 8-5 so far plus 4-14 projected 12-19. No postseason
real life- #143 2-9 in conference. 10-14 with 7 games left

so projections back then/new projection
Villanova #8. 13-5 projected/15-3 projected +2
Creighton #16 12-6 projected/14-4 projected +2
Georgetown #28 11-7 projected/8-10 projected -3
Xavier #39 10-8 projected/10-8 projected even
Marquette #42 10-8 projected/9-9 projected -1
Butler #50 9-9 projected/4-14 projected -5
St John's #56. 8-10 projected/9-9 projected +1
Providence #66. 8-10 projected/9-9 projected +1
Seton Hall #119 5-13 projected/8-10 projected +3
DePaul #134 4-14 projected/4-14 projected even

so going back to the end of December- realy only Butler and Georgetown not done close to what was expected. 5 teams within +/- 1 game of their projection. Biggest surprises Seton Hall, Villanova, and Creighton(which being 9/1/2- is kind of worst case scenario if you know what I mean- 1/2 being better means the 3-5 teams aren't getting the wins, and the 9 team being better means the 5-7 teams aren't getting the wins). And just looking at the overall projected records(not teams just records at the places), 1/2 a bit stronger, 3-5 a game off, 6 -8 spot on, 9 1 game worse, 10 spot on.

Just using his new projections:
Villanova 15-3 27-4
Creighton 14-4 24-6
Xavier 10-8 20-11
Providence 9-9 19-12
Marquette 9-9 17-14
St John's 9-9 19-12
Georgetown 8-10 17-13
Seton Hall 8-10 17-14
Butler 4-14 14-16
DePaul 4-14 12-19

If this is what winds up happening, it's going to be a very nervous time. Worst case would be these records quite frankly, in the BET- Marquette beating Providence(but losing to Nova), Xavier beating St John's, and Creighton beating Georgetown. Would almost guarantee only 3 teams. Those standings were what we've talked about from day 1 practically worst case scenario. At least we still have 4 weeks to make a difference. The one hope to me is Seton Hall. They're picked to go 4-4- with home wins over Marquette, Georgetown, and Providence. If they lost to Georgetown and Providence- that may get those 2 in the tourney at that point(esp if BET was 4 PC vs 5 Georgetown- the winner would be in!). Marquette still with a bit more to do, but still would help them out as well...

[TrueBlueJay]

This is a pretty cool tool where you can put in wins and losses for a team and have it figure a future RPI.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/index.html