Big East teams hurting each other; too much depth?

[redmen9194]

Gumby has a point. Beating up on each other in conference is not the problem. They used to say it about the Big East all the time before the major expansion in 2005. If we take care of the out of conference games then a .500 record in conference is not a problem. Remember 2011. The Big East got 11 teams in. UConn finished in 9th place at 9-9 in the league. But they never lost an out of conference game the whole season. I like the ten team format and I think it works and works well. Especially for a league that is defining itself. The Big XII has ten teams and no one is saying they are being hurt by it because they are not. To be honest, I would not expect any of our teams to lie down in conference for another conference member. I root Big East always out of conference, but if a St. John's win tomorrow meant Providence did not make the tourney even if St. John's didn't either, so be it. Our league is good. There are years we will get five, maybe six, and years we will get three maybe four it happens. We are in better shape as a group than we were 15 months ago. The league will be fine.

[stever20]

Georgetown is the only legit team (outside of the top 4) who has a shot at the NCAA tourney as an at-large. It's because they have a very good non-conference resume with wins against MSU, VCU and KState. 9-9 league finish and 1 win the BET should get them in as a last 4.

19-13(which is the scenario you present)- is going to be awfully close. Would hinge on a lot of the smaller conferences not having upsets which cause a 2nd team from conference to get in. It's not a lock either way. Also, a Georgetown win there could cause a Providence or Xavier(whoever the Hoya's are playing) to fall out of the tournament. If it's 18-12 Georgetown vs 20-11 Providence say in the QF- the winner could easily get in while the loser could be out.

[WaitingPatiently]

Non-conf is of great importance, but it would also help to have a weaker bottom and more parity at the top. If the bottom 2 teams combine for 5 wins - 2 of which are their matchups - and the champ is 13-5, you're likely to have 5-6-7 with strong at large resumes. They have quality wins spread around and few bad loses. When the bottom team is on pace for 4-5 by itself and the top couple on pace for 15-16, you're probably only going to have 2-3 with resumes that don't produce some sweating selection Sunday. Unfortunately this season is closer to the later and harmful for total bids. The bottom team just needs to be a rotation of teams and not one stuck in a long rut. When the BE got 7/9 and 11/16, the race at the top was tight and the bottom was putrid.

[Hall2012]

I understand the logic here but one thing trumps all of this and that is how you do OOC. If SJU, SHU, Marq and Butler (even XU) had performed better OOC then even a .500 league record might garner them consideration. I think that is where Gtwn is right now. They have 3 quality OOC wins now (with 1 really bad loss) and finishing at 4th or 5th in the league might just get them in. SHU, especially has to be kicking itself. They lost to both potential tourney teams they played in Mercer and OU, and lost those 2 horrible games. They could be in the mix had they done better prior to conf season First they need to beef up their OOC and secondly you can't lose at home to cupcakes. But generally speaking we can't start complaining that we are beating each other up to our detriment after we've shot ourselves in the foot OOC.

Man, from a Seton Hall perspective, I wish we only shot ourselves in the foot OOC. We shot ourselves in the face. The Pirates had both Mercer and OU comfortably beaten late in the 2nd half and somehow choked both games away into a 2OT loss and a 1pt loss respectively. Instead of having a couple a nice wins, we're looking back at what could have been. And then we all know about the FDU and SPC disasters. Those stand as Seton Hall's worst 2 non-conference losses since 2008 and we happened to pick them both up in the same year. The Pirates' next worst loss in that stretch is a 2010 neutral court loss to Arkansas.

[Bluejay]

That's the thing with a 10 team league with no horrible teams. Even though all the programs are pretty good, the problem is they all can't be 20 win teams. Someone has to fall down, and with the parity in the league now we're going to end up with a bunch of .500 conference records and few NCAA berths. This is why the league must expand, the sooner the better imo. It is also why contrary to conventional wisdom, sometimes having a league with 4 or 5 strong teams and 4 or 5 weak teams isn't a bad thing. The bad thing is when its the same 4 or 5 on each end year after year. But parity like we're seeing now (even Depaul isn't too bad) means that we're going to be perceived as a "weak" league and be lucky to see 3 or 4 invites.

SO are you saying that we should expand to add two or more bad teams? Do you think that is really a good idea? I mean, I get it. But I don't think adding a couple of bad teams and diluting the TV money more just to get a couple of crappy teams at the bottom of standings is really worth it...

[Lavinwood]

I like PC as a program, but I just don't see them as a tourney team. I think it's going to be Nova, Creighton, and either Xavier or G'Town. There's a chance it ends up only being Nova and Creighton if one of them wins the tourney. PC had a nice break early on playing most of their games at home. They are lucky to have faced a DePaul team without their best player (where they barely hung on still), SJ shot themselves in the foot 3 or 4 times and let a 2 OT game slip, and they caught Creighton ice cold. These are things that won't happen again, and they still have a lot of away games left. Other teams are just the opposite and appear prepared to make a run with more home games and a lighter part of the schedule.

PC is a good team but can Cotton keep carrying the load every night? At some point you have to think the lack of depth hurts them and going away for games will be very tough for them.

[MackNova]

It would take an extraordinary amount of parity for only 2 teams to get in. Too many wins out there and not enough awful losses. I'm not worried about 3. I don't trust any team for 4. I don't entirely trust Xavier for the 3rd spot either, but I do think they are the 3rd best team.

[marquette]

diluting the TV money

People need to quit saying this. You aren't the only one I've seen recently. Fox has stated that they will match the money if we add 2 more so no one loses money. Any future contracts are speculation, since 2 decent adds could add bids/jack up the perception of the league so we get more from future negotiations just as easily as they could hurt anyone.

[hoyahooligan]

BE gets 5 teams in. Heard it here: Nova, Creighton, Georgetown, Xavier, Providence. As long as each of those teams finishes 9-9 or better they're going to make the dance. The bubble is weak.

[Lavinwood]

BE gets 5 teams in. Heard it here: Nova, Creighton, Georgetown, Xavier, Providence. As long as each of those teams finishes 9-9 or better they're going to make the dance. The bubble is weak.

Going to be very tough. Xavier lost 3 straight…can they right the ship? In this league it's very tough to bounce back but they have some favorable match ups coming up so I can see Xavier making it. PC is a different story. Their team stats are well in the 110 range on the low end and even 293rd in FG% rankings nationally. Their stats are more closely aligned with St. John's, a 3-6 team than Xavier ranging from 38th to 89th in major stats nationally at 5-4. My point? I think PC is fools gold, and I mean that in the nicest way possible. PC is a very classy program and a great academic institution. But my gut and stats give me signs that they are not the real deal. Obviously those team rankings vs. where they stand in the Big East are not direct correlations with luck, but I think it definitely plays a decent role. Every year it seems there are teams that get off to hot starts then fade. St. John's was #3 in the Big East last year at one point in the middle of the season. Everyone was asking, "Is St. John's for real?", then reality set in, we got crushed by L'Ville, ND, Cuse, Pitt, etc. and we were without our best player (Harrison) for the last 6 games or so.

Not saying PC can't stay the course, but it will be very difficult with a furious SJ team coming to town, traveling to Xavier and G'Town, facing #6 Nova, traveling to Butler, traveling to Seton Hall, and traveling to #12 Creighton. That's a lot to ask of a shorthanded PC team with 1 guy running the show (Cotton).

IMO the tourney will be as follows: Nova, Creighton, and either Xavier or G'Town but not both.

*St. John's will finally get a big upset vs. either Nova or Creighton, they will go on a bit of a run but it won't be enough to make up for all the maddeningly close losses earlier in the year…we win 1 game in the BET and go on to the NIT.

*PC will fade down the stretch but still be an NIT team.

*Xavier and G'Town go wire to wire for the 3rd and final at-large bid

*Creighton wins the Big East title