On the Bubble

[Bill Marsh]

As we sit here in the last week in January, the latest RPI forecast shows 3 Big East teams solidly in the tournament.

2 seed - Villanova
3 seed - Creighton
7 seed - Xavier

Providence sits squarely on the bubble, one of the first four out along with Arkansas (SEC) Indiana State (MVC), and Louisiana Tech (CUSA). Georgetown is not in the conversation at this point, #14 on the list of potential at large teams not in the tournament. The Josh Smith news makes things even more bleak. Makes you wonder if he'll ever play for them again. It's a hard place to succeed academically. Marquette is even further removed at #22 of those not making the tournament. However, I'd be more hopeful of Marquette's chances of making a run than of Georgetown's.

The last 4 in, the ones that PC has to catch, are Dayton (A10), St. Mary's (WCC), Stanford (PAC 12), and SMU (AAC).

The Big East remains ranked at #4, meaning that anyone who puts together a run of upsets against BE competition has a better chance of advancing up the RPI rankings than someone from CUSA (#13), the Missouri Valley (#11), or the SEC (#7).

[handdownmandown]

Here is an RPI forecast aspect that is omitted: conference tourney play will always benefit the strongest conferences. Just playing extra games against league teams will boost the rpis of the winning teams, which wont be true for the Valley, A10, or SEC teams. So when I see PU listed on the bubble with a projected RPI of like 55 or whatever, I dont see that as a problem, I see it as meaning they will have to win the 4/5 opening round MSG game - a fact that would likely still be in place if they were heading into the postseason as 'in' with an RPI of 45 or whatnot.

[CityFriar]

So when I see PU listed on the bubble...

What Big East school is PU? Did we expand and I missed it?

[redmen9194]

I think we will see a solid four in of Creighton, Nova, X, and PC. Maybe a fifth team can sneak in.

[handdownmandown]

So when I see PU listed on the bubble...

What Big East school is PU? Did we expand and I missed it?

Lol, a mere brain fart. Sorry

[ReynoldsWrap]

I'm sure many of you are familiar with this site, it's http://www.bracketmatrix.com and it compiles all the NCAA Tourney seed projections into one list, creating an S-curve and overall projected seed for each team. Here's where the Big East teams stand as of today:

Villanova: 2-seed (#6 on S-curve)
Creighton: 4-seed (#14 on S-curve)
Xavier: 8-seed (#29 on S-curve)
Providence: 12-seed (#47 on S-curve)
---------------------------------------------
Georgetown (4th team left out of Tournament)

I'd love to see Providence continue to improve and make their way up that S-curve. Pretty good test for them over the next couple weeks, as four of their next five games are on the road, including @Marq, @Xavier, and @Gtown.

[stever20]

I'm sure many of you are familiar with this site, it's http://www.bracketmatrix.com and it compiles all the NCAA Tourney seed projections into one list, creating an S-curve and overall projected seed for each team. Here's where the Big East teams stand as of today:

Villanova: 2-seed (#6 on S-curve)
Creighton: 4-seed (#14 on S-curve)
Xavier: 8-seed (#29 on S-curve)
Providence: 12-seed (#47 on S-curve)
---------------------------------------------
Georgetown (4th team left out of Tournament)

I'd love to see Providence continue to improve and make their way up that S-curve. Pretty good test for them over the next couple weeks, as four of their next five games are on the road, including @Marq, @Xavier, and @Gtown.

One point on Georgetown on that site. None of the brackets released since Tuesday have them in the bracket. Pretty much think we're out- unless we can pick up a win vs either Nova or Michigan St.

[JohnnyBoy]

As badly as I want PC in, I just don't think they are anything close to a sure thing. They are just not used to getting there and they have lost a lot of talent. Sure they have the talent to get there, but they won a game SJ shot itself in the foot 10 times in the last few minutes to win in 2 OT. Then they won the other 2. I don't see them as a team that will continue to win games they shouldn't. Maybe 1 here and 1 there but not in a row. I think they are a squarely bubble team. I highly doubt the next time they play SJ we miss another 3 or 4 chances to win in the closing seconds, or give our worst ball handler the ball to get trapped and turn it over. I also highly doubt they beat Creighton again. I think they are one of those teams off to a fast start but will slowly wind down. But there's still the chance that they can keep their foot on the gas.

[MackNova]

Providence has a lot of work to do to secure a bid. So does Xavier, even though no one wants to admit it. Both are on the right side of the bubble, particularly Xavier, but neither can rest on its laurels. I'd be very surprised if Xavier missed out, but Providence's lack of depth is a little worrisome to them keeping up this level of play. I definitely hope they can, even if I hope they lose their biggest home game remaining (Villanova).

[Bill Marsh]

As badly as I want PC in, I just don't think they are anything close to a sure thing. They are just not used to getting there and they have lost a lot of talent. Sure they have the talent to get there, but they won a game SJ shot itself in the foot 10 times in the last few minutes to win in 2 OT. Then they won the other 2. I don't see them as a team that will continue to win games they shouldn't. Maybe 1 here and 1 there but not in a row. I think they are a squarely bubble team. I highly doubt the next time they play SJ we miss another 3 or 4 chances to win in the closing seconds, or give our worst ball handler the ball to get trapped and turn it over. I also highly doubt they beat Creighton again. I think they are one of those teams off to a fast start but will slowly wind down. But there's still the chance that they can keep their foot on the gas.

Seriously, Johnny Boy, why would you doubt St. John's ability to miss another 3 or 4 chances in the closing seconds? It's what they do! And admit it, that's something they're darn good at. So give the Red Storm their due. They are not inconsistent at all when it comes to blowing chances in the closing seconds. You can count on it.

As for the game even coming down to the closing seconds, remember that the next game will be played at the Dunk. An OT game in NYC figures to be a 10 point win for the Friars in Providence. I really don't think you'll have to be worried about blown chances in the closing minutes. The fame shouldn't be close enough for it to matter.