New RPI Forecast: Tuesday, Jan 21

[Bill Marsh]

Here's how last night's games affected the RPI forecast, which is to say not as much as you'd think:

5. Villanova
12. Creighton
28. Xavier
57. Providence
69. Georgetown
75. Marquette
99. Butler
109. St. John's
123. Seton Hall
138. DePaul

[ivet]

Why do you keep doing this?

[Bill Marsh]

Why do you keep doing this?

I find it interesting and think it might contribute to the conversation.

[XUFan09]

Why do you keep doing this?

Why not? For one thing, it's interesting to note that Butler could end up being a bad loss for Marquette.

[stever20]

The expected RPI's are way different than just the ranks...

5. Villanova expected 9.5
12. Creighton expected 12.1
28. Xavier expected 32.2
57. Providence expected 58.7
69. Georgetown expected 71.2
75. Marquette expected 82.2
99. Butler expected 104.9
109. St. John's expected 113.6
123. Seton Hall expected 124.3
138. DePaul expected 138.8

Generally speaking, for 10 spots in the RPI, you need 1 more win. So from that rough equation- PC would need 1 extra win over projected, Hoyas 2 wins, and Marquette 3 wins- to get into the top 50 which is huge..

Also I would say to Bills thing about last night not meaning all that much- it's not like it's all that early in the season. Only Butler has fewer than 18(and they have 18 but 1 d2 game)- and 3 have more than 18 already.

[ivet]

These are pointless. Georgetown has a higher RPI because they had Smith earlier in the year. Same with Butler and Roosevelt Jones. These are two different teams then earlier this year yet their RPI is still high due to their previous OoC games. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgetown or Butler go winless the rest of the year and how does that work with their RPI? Seton Hall is way down there yet they handled Georgetown convincingly. At this point I only see 3 tournament worthy teams in our conference. Nova was what? #2 or #1 in the country before coming into the Creighton Game (who just got spanked by PC a few days earlier) and literally destroyed Nova to shreds. I would rather see the latest conference standings every day then see that...yea, all though you beat us pretty good. We still have a higher RPI and will get a better chance at getting into the tournament than you.

[Bill Marsh]

These are pointless. Georgetown has a higher RPI because they had Smith earlier in the year. Same with Butler and Roosevelt Jones. These are two different teams then earlier this year yet their RPI is still high due to their previous OoC games. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgetown or Butler go winless the rest of the year and how does that work with their RPI? Seton Hall is way down there yet they handled Georgetown convincingly. At this point I only see 3 tournament worthy teams in our conference. Nova was what? #2 or #1 in the country before coming into the Creighton Game (who just got spanked by PC a few days earlier) and literally destroyed Nova to shreds. I would rather see the latest conference standings every day then see that...yea, all though you beat us pretty good. We still have a higher RPI and will get a better chance at getting into the tournament than you.

If you'd rather see the conference standings, then don't open the thread. Seems like a pretty simple solution. The topic was clearly stated.

This is not simply an RPI. It is what the RPI is projected to be at season's end, based on a calculation of wins and losses in the remaining schedule. That's a very different thing than a current RPI and as a result, it doesn't disproportionately overweight Georgetown's early season wins. You can find it more fully explained at www.rpiforecast.com.

Of course no one can predict injuries or what their impact will be on a team's play, nor how the team will play when an injured player returns.

Personally I find this a lot more useful than discussions of the polls, which have no basis in the real world and which will not be used by the selection committee. This is a performance based system and the committee will in fact look at RPI and other power ratings when they make their decisions, so knowing how individual teams and the conference as a whole stack up is very important.

[ivet]

Personally I find this a lot more useful than discussions of the polls, which have no basis in the real world and which will not be used by the selection committee. This is a performance based system and the committee will in fact look at RPI and other power ratings when they make their decisions, so knowing how individual teams and the conference as a whole stack up is very important.

And they also see how the team is before the selection compared to earlier in the season that resulted in their High RPI boost. Oh Georgetown, you beat a #10 ranked VCU earlier in the year...oh you dont have smith anymore and the past games it has shown with all these loses? Doesnt matter because that one win boosted your RPI enough to get you into the tournament even though you're a different team now. That's how selection works right?

[Chalmers0]

These are pointless. Georgetown has a higher RPI because they had Smith earlier in the year. Same with Butler and Roosevelt Jones.These are two different teams then earlier this year yet their RPI is still high due to their previous OoC games.

Josh Smith really helped their RPI with that loss to Northeastern. It's also amazing how Roosevelt Jones was able to boost Butler's RPI early in the year.

But to the main point, obviously RPI, which is taken into consideration for the tournament at some level, is absolutely worthless.

[BillikensWin]

Jones never suited up for Butler this year that I remember.