4th Team

[Bill Marsh]

Point of clarification XUFan, UConn missed the tourney last year because they were ineligible for the post season. The oBE was scary deep last year, and they would have been yet another BE team in the tourney mix had they actually cared about the academic performance of their student athletes.

Gumby, I was a season ticket holder at UConn last year and I can tell you that they were not going to the NCAA tournament even if they were eligible.

Your comment about UConn not caring about the academic performance of their student athletes is an undeserved and baseless cheap shot.

Um... You do realize that UConn was ineligible because it's players failed to meet BASIC academic standards, right? This wasn't a one year thing. For years UConn has demonstrated that the success of its basketball team trumped the success of its student athletes. When your coach has a record of graduating less than 50% of his players that tells you all you need to know about priorities at the school.

For years, Gumby? How many years?

Obviously we all know about last year's situation, but APR hadn't been a problem in the past and it isn't now.

The fact is that UConn has not had a chronic problem with the academics of their athletes. You need to post something more than graduation rates because number of players going to the NBA and number of transfers all contribute to graduation rates.

[notkirkcameron]

Something to remember about Marquette...they've pretty much hit the tough road trips in the Big East already this year.
Creighton, Xavier, a Butler team that was hungry for its first Big East win, and Georgetown, where MU was previously 1-5.


Marquette's remaining road schedule is
at St. John's (Feb. 1), where MU hasn't lost to St. John's since the 1960s I believe.
at Seton Hall (Feb. 11th), where MU has only lost once since joining the Big East.
at DePaul (Feb. 22nd), which is on a Saturday for the first time in 10 years, and I accordingly anticipate a 50/50 split in the crowd's rooting interests, not to mention MU has taken 34 of the past 41 games from DePaul.
at Villanova (Mar. 2), I've got this one down as a loss, but remember, it's at Wells Fargo, where MU has won before, not the Pavilion, which is a freakin' house of horrors for Marquette
at Providence (Mar. 4), Providence is the hot team, but as referenced earlier in this thread, do they have the legs to go that deep into the season?

They have 7 games remaining at home, where MU hasn't lost a conference game since 2011.

[Bill Marsh]

Where did the notion come from that there's a magic number of losses that keeps a team out of the tournament?

Here's a list of schools who got at-large bids last year with 10 losses with their record at the time they were selected:

San Diego State (22-10)
North Carolina (24-10)
Villanova (20-13)
Oklahoma (20-11)
Minnesota (20-12)
Wisconsin (23-11)
Iowa State (22-11)
Boise State (21-10)
Illinois (22-12)
NC State (24-10)
Colorado (21-11)
Cal (20-11)
Missouri (23-10)
Cincinnati (22-11)

[HoosierPal]

Where did the notion come from that there's a magic number of losses that keeps a team out of the tournament?

Here's a list of schools who got at-large bids lat year with 10 losses with their record at the time they were selected:

San Diego State (22-10)
North Carolina (24-10)
Villanova (20-13)
Oklahoma (20-11)
Minnesota (20-12)
Wisconsin (23-11)
Iowa State (22-11)
Boise State (21-10)
Illinois (22-12)
NC State (24-10)
Colorado (21-11)
Cal (20-11)
Missouri (23-10)
Cincinnati (22-11)

Very true, and in reverse, there is no magic number of wins or magic RPI that guarantees a slot in the Dance.

In 2010 the ACC's Virginia Tech was 23-7 and left on the side. In 2012 Drexel was 27-6 and relegated to the NIT. And perhaps the biggest snub of all was in 2006 when (now) Missouri State had an RPI of 21 and was not selected.

[GumbyDamnit!]

For years, Gumby? How many years?

Obviously we all know about last year's situation, but APR hadn't been a problem in the past and it isn't now.

The fact is that UConn has not had a chronic problem with the academics of their athletes. You need to post something more than graduation rates because number of players going to the NBA and number of transfers all contribute to graduation rates.

The APR isn't just a solid black line. When schools near the threshold the NCAA invites them to present an academic plan that shows how they intend to improve the academic success of their student-athletes. So there is great opportunity for a school to demonstrate that it is able to provide an educational environment to help these kids be successful after basketball. Uconn was one of 9 teams or roughly 3% of all schools that failed to qualify (even with the additional "extra credit"). Since 2004 when the NCAA started tracking APR, UConn's average yearly APR has been: 914.6

Here are some other schools and their avg. APR, who have also had a lot of players either transferring out or leaving early to play professionally:
Kansas - 994
UNC - 984
Kentucky - 952
Syracuse - 939
Villanova - 985
Gtwn - 953

Care to take another stab at why UConn's APR caused them to be ineligible? It certainly is not b/c of the transfers and those that bolted to play professionally. Kentucky should be 0 if that were the case. No school has had more kids bolt for the NBA than them yet they are still, on average 37 odd points better than UConn. Hmmmm...

[Beast of the East]

Something to remember about Marquette...they've pretty much hit the tough road trips in the Big East already this year.
Creighton, Xavier, a Butler team that was hungry for its first Big East win, and Georgetown, where MU was previously 1-5.


Marquette's remaining road schedule is
at St. John's (Feb. 1), where MU hasn't lost to St. John's since the 1960s I believe.
at Seton Hall (Feb. 11th), where MU has only lost once since joining the Big East.
at DePaul (Feb. 22nd), which is on a Saturday for the first time in 10 years, and I accordingly anticipate a 50/50 split in the crowd's rooting interests, not to mention MU has taken 34 of the past 41 games from DePaul.
at Villanova (Mar. 2), I've got this one down as a loss, but remember, it's at Wells Fargo, where MU has won before, not the Pavilion, which is a freakin' house of horrors for Marquette
at Providence (Mar. 4), Providence is the hot team, but as referenced earlier in this thread, do they have the legs to go that deep into the season?

They have 7 games remaining at home, where MU hasn't lost a conference game since 2011.

I 100% agree that Marquette could still make a run at a Dance invite. They have had a brutal stretch to the league and the reverse of that should be a lot of wins in February, which will be fresh in everyone's minds.

[Beast of the East]

I'm still not sold on Xavier as a lock. To me, they are the flip of Marquette, whereas Xavier has had a very friendly first 6 games in the league. They have played 4 home games, at Creighton (close loss), and at DePaul. While they are 5-1, which is an impressive start, they could easily go 4-8 or 5-7 the rest of the way. If they do, they will be on the outside looking in. I think their game at Providence on Saturday is enormous for them (for both teams, really). As others have stated, I also think Providence is a team capable of a strong finish in league play.

I would say the only locks right now to play into the Tournament are Nova and Creighton, with Xavier in a good spot, but with the real teeth of their schedule in front of them. Marquette and Providence are both well positioned to make this interesting.

I'm just not as sold on Xavier as others I guess, but I certainly hope I'm wrong and they continue to play well and represent the league well into March. I am a big fan of their coach, and I know they have an UNREAL class coming in next year, so the future certainly seems bright for the X-Men.

[billyjack]

Just want to point out that UNC cooked their numbers... fake classes, forged signatures, etc... no NCAA penalties.
UConn's mistake seems to be that they were honest.
And I mean, I can't believe that Calipari is running an honest program.
Calhoun probably didn't kiss someone's ring or genuflect to some a-hole, so they decided to go after him...

[X-man]

I'm still not sold on Xavier as a lock. To me, they are the flip of Marquette, whereas Xavier has had a very friendly first 6 games in the league. They have played 4 home games, at Creighton (close loss), and at DePaul. While they are 5-1, which is an impressive start, they could easily go 4-8 or 5-7 the rest of the way. If they do, they will be on the outside looking in. I think their game at Providence on Saturday is enormous for them (for both teams, really). As others have stated, I also think Providence is a team capable of a strong finish in league play.

I would say the only locks right now to play into the Tournament are Nova and Creighton, with Xavier in a good spot, but with the real teeth of their schedule in front of them. Marquette and Providence are both well positioned to make this interesting.

I'm just not as sold on Xavier as others I guess, but I certainly hope I'm wrong and they continue to play well and represent the league well into March. I am a big fan of their coach, and I know they have an UNREAL class coming in next year, so the future certainly seems bright for the X-Men.

I said before the season started that Xavier would be playing well by the time league play began, but that they would take a while to gel and would likely struggle a bit in nonconference play. I was wrong; other than the (serious) hiccup in the Bahamas, they played quite well in nonconference winning games against some teams (UC and Alabama on the road, and Tennessee and Wake Forest at home) that I frankly would not have been surprised to see them lose. They remain a work in progress, but they have come together more quickly than I expected. Yes, they have had a favorable beginning schedule in conference play but they have (easily) covered the line on every game. If they can figure out how to beat a press, start caring for the ball, and focusing on playing hard for two halves every game, they should finish as well as they started in conference play. I agree that the Providence game this weekend will be telling, but what I expect it to tell is that the Muskies are for real.

[Bluejay]

Gumby, I was a season ticket holder at UConn last year and I can tell you that they were not going to the NCAA tournament even if they were eligible.

Your comment about UConn not caring about the academic performance of their student athletes is an undeserved and baseless cheap shot.

Um... You do realize that UConn was ineligible because it's players failed to meet BASIC academic standards, right? This wasn't a one year thing. For years UConn has demonstrated that the success of its basketball team trumped the success of its student athletes. When your coach has a record of graduating less than 50% of his players that tells you all you need to know about priorities at the school.

For years, Gumby? How many years?

Obviously we all know about last year's situation, but APR hadn't been a problem in the past and it isn't now.

The fact is that UConn has not had a chronic problem with the academics of their athletes. You need to post something more than graduation rates because number of players going to the NBA and number of transfers all contribute to graduation rates.

APR is a rolling average over several years (4 I think). In order to not have a satisfactory score, it means that you had bad numbers for several of those years - you aren't going to be banned from the postseason for one bad year.