Which newcomer is most likely to fade?

[HuskyMuskie]

This has been a topic that is often discussed if not tiptoed around by posters. In looking at the three newcomers, Butler, Creighton, and Xavier, what are the opinions of the Big East community as to which program will succumb to the strenuous schedule the Big East demands day in and day out? Will any of the three go the way of DePaul, and sink down to a perennial bottom-dweller? Will all three succeed and become the class of the league? What is your reasoning?

As a Xavier fan, I am genuinely curious to hear the responses. As for myself, I believe Butler will eventually fade into basketball obscurity--and no, not because they are considered a rival in most Xavier fan circles. I think that their lack of updates to Hinkle Fieldhouse (yes, I am aware of the ongoing renovation process) lack of fan support, lack of coaching track record, and major lack of recruiting success puts them behind the 8-ball when this question surfaces.

One thing is for certain--it is hard to win games in this league. Period. Let alone maintain continued success for years down the road. As the years go by it will be very interesting to see which teams step up to the plate, and which ones regress. Thoughts?

[xu155]

I don't think you can say Butler has a lack of fan support or coaching track record......and I honestly don't really like Butler. Just trying to be fair. I'm very confident Xavier can succeed in this league. Not saying they'll win it every year or anything, but I'd bet top 5 almost every year for the forseeable future.

[XUFan09]

A lack of coaching track record? Stevens wasn't an anomaly, just the best of the bunch. And Miller looks to be pretty good and is just suffering from the loss of Roosevelt Jones.

As for recruiting, the coaching change lost them Bluiett and Macura (Thanks, Brad Stevens!), not because Miller was a poor recruiter (he isn't) but probably because he was new and unproven. Heck, Bluiett's initial two schools after de-committing from UCLA were Xavier and Butler, after Stevens was gone.

[hoyahooligan]

I'm not sure if it's Butler or Crieghton, but the least likely to fade of the new comers is Xavier.

I lean towards Creighton, but I hope none of the newcomer's fade. We don't need any more bottom feeders.

[jaybydna]

What if none of them do?

[section202jay]

The newcomers are going to be fine. I'm more worried about the likes of DePaul and St. John's.

And Butler has a lack of a coaching record? I learn something new everyday.

[HuskyMuskie]

I don't think you can say Butler has a lack of fan support or coaching track record......and I honestly don't really like Butler. Just trying to be fair. I'm very confident Xavier can succeed in this league. Not saying they'll win it every year or anything, but I'd bet top 5 almost every year for the forseeable future.

I should clarify--by lack of fan support, I am citing the 6,100 average and 6,600 average of fans per game AFTER their two Final 4 runs, respectively. As of last year, it had increased to 58th in the nation as an average, up to 7,900. With a capacity of 10,000 (correct me if I am wrong, BU fans) this gives them an average 21% vacancy rate per game.

As for coaching track record, that was a poor choice of words. I am aware of the successful coaching tree that Butler has produced and one can't help but be impressed with it. I was speaking in regards to Miller, who has no track record of head coaching, let alone in a conference like the Big East. I have a hard time believing the recruits necessary to compete in this league day in and day out are willing to pledge their allegiance to a coach with no track record of success, or coaching whatsoever.

Not sure about the rest of the BE community, but I have been underwhelmed by Miller's coaching thus far. It seems as if he, at least for now, lacks the skills/motivation/whatever you want to call it, to produce much of anything from players outside of Dunham. Just my humble opinion. But all of these factors going against them, I think that of the three, Butler surfaces as the newcomer most likely to regress.

[section202jay]

I don't think you can say Butler has a lack of fan support or coaching track record......and I honestly don't really like Butler. Just trying to be fair. I'm very confident Xavier can succeed in this league. Not saying they'll win it every year or anything, but I'd bet top 5 almost every year for the forseeable future.

I should clarify--by lack of fan support, I am citing the 6,100 average and 6,600 average of fans per game AFTER their two Final 4 runs, respectively. As of last year, it had increased to 58th in the nation as an average, up to 7,900. With a capacity of 10,000 (correct me if I am wrong, BU fans) this gives them an average 21% vacancy rate per game.

As for coaching track record, that was a poor choice of words. I am aware of the successful coaching tree that Butler has produced and one can't help but be impressed with it. I was speaking in regards to Miller, who has no track record of head coaching, let alone in a conference like the Big East. I have a hard time believing the recruits necessary to compete in this league day in and day out are willing to pledge their allegiance to a coach with no track record of success, or coaching whatsoever.

Not sure about the rest of the BE community, but I have been underwhelmed by Miller's coaching thus far. It seems as if he, at least for now, lacks the skills/motivation/whatever you want to call it, to produce much of anything from players outside of Dunham. Just my humble opinion. But all of these factors going against them, I think that of the three, Butler surfaces as the newcomer most likely to regress.

Look what Miller has to work with though. The fact that they've won 10 games total and been so close in others is impressive in my mind. His defensive game plan against us last night though was high questionable. I don't know exactly what he was thinking in regards to guarding Doug. He torches a lot of teams but Butler never doubled teamed and just sort of let it happen.

[xu155]

I don't think you can say Butler has a lack of fan support or coaching track record......and I honestly don't really like Butler. Just trying to be fair. I'm very confident Xavier can succeed in this league. Not saying they'll win it every year or anything, but I'd bet top 5 almost every year for the forseeable future.

I should clarify--by lack of fan support, I am citing the 6,100 average and 6,600 average of fans per game AFTER their two Final 4 runs, respectively. As of last year, it had increased to 58th in the nation as an average, up to 7,900. With a capacity of 10,000 (correct me if I am wrong, BU fans) this gives them an average 21% vacancy rate per game.

As for coaching track record, that was a poor choice of words. I am aware of the successful coaching tree that Butler has produced and one can't help but be impressed with it. I was speaking in regards to Miller, who has no track record of head coaching, let alone in a conference like the Big East. I have a hard time believing the recruits necessary to compete in this league day in and day out are willing to pledge their allegiance to a coach with no track record of success, or coaching whatsoever.

Not sure about the rest of the BE community, but I have been underwhelmed by Miller's coaching thus far. It seems as if he, at least for now, lacks the skills/motivation/whatever you want to call it, to produce much of anything from players outside of Dunham. Just my humble opinion. But all of these factors going against them, I think that of the three, Butler surfaces as the newcomer most likely to regress.

I disagree on Brandon Miller. I liken Butler this year to Xavier last year (although Xavier's cupboard was a little more bare last year than this year's Butler team). I don't think Butler will be outstanding in the Big East, but they won't be bad for the league, that's for sure IMO.

[whiteandblue77]

Creighton is still bursting onto the national scene for the first time since we were an Independent and going to sweet 16s in the Sixties and Seventies. How the hell are we supposed to "Fade" when we've been stuck in the MVC for 30 years and haven't gone to the third round of the modern era NCAA tourney? Creighton is just starting our "emergence," just like the city of Omaha, a clean, well-planned, cultural small city with tremendous growth potential. Huge, decaying rust belt cities with traffic jams, brownfields and blight? No thanks. I'm mostly scared of Georgetown going the way of St. Johns and DePaul and most of the C7... that's the definition of "Fade away."