RPI Forecast

[Jet915]

I reactivated my account just to ignore stever and friarfan2, who are ruining this board!

As for actual basketball, enjoying the league this far. Nova/Seton Hall is on CBSSN on Wed and I don't have this channel. Anyone know how much a subscription would cost, and is worth it for a few games (full disclosure: nova fan)

Not worth it if it's just a few games IMO. I have FiOS and it costs an extra 10 bucks a month to get the sports package that doesn't even include FS2 and CBS Sportsnet isn't even in HD either. There is a good chance it could be available on an internet stream day of game.

[XUFan09]

Did a post get deleted or did two people just ignore Stever because he posted the projected RPIs as a counter-argument to why Marquette/Butler are probably far from the bubble? Because they are far from the bubble. It will take Marquette well more than a win over Xavier to jump on the bubble, while hurting Xavier's tournament chances.

[billyjack]

Trying to expand on Jet's point about predictions and results being fluid...

Ok, I need someone who is on this board 21 hours a day who enjoys looking at RPI, KenPom and Warren Nolan... can anyone recommend someone to do this...? Ok, great, now...

...take unanticipated results of the last couple of days that would move the needle... Rhody won at LSU, and Marist actually won a game (against a Cainisius team that just lost at Notre Dame in OT)... both Rhode Island and Marist were underdogs... both earlier had losses vs PC... how did those two wins by URI and Marist affect PC's rank? What was the net positive uptick (no matter how small) for PC based on their opponents' unlikely results...? Next, figure out how PC's slight uptick can benefit Butler, Marquette, etc...

Figuring that out would be more helpful in understanding these predicted rankings.

[stever20]

Trying to expand on Jet's point about predictions and results being fluid...
Take unanticipated results of the last couple of days that would move the needle... Rhody won at LSU, and Marist actually won a game (against a Cainisius team that just lost at Notre Dame in OT)... both Rhode Island and Marist were underdogs... both earlier had losses vs PC... how did those two wins by URI and Marist affect PC's rank? What was the net positive uptick for PC based on their opponents' unlikely results...?

At this point even- 1-2 unexpected results don't mean much.

your opponents record- right now would have about 225 games. So say your opponents records were 115-110. If the 2 wins don't happen- your opponents record is 113-112. That means instead of .511 you have .502. That's not a huge difference by any stretch of the imagination- considering it's only 1/2 of the RPI. Your opponents opponents record(25% of the record) remains the same, and your own record remains the same obviously(25%). It may make in the final RPI a .0045 difference in your RPI at this point. Just looking right now- it made a 5 spot difference.

End of the year though- those 2 wins- your opponents would have about 900 games. so 2 fluke wins if you will- changes from say 460-440 to 458-442. .5111 to .5089. Makes the final RPI difference .0011- or about 1 spot.

[ivet]

Trying to expand on Jet's point about predictions and results being fluid...
Take unanticipated results of the last couple of days that would move the needle... Rhody won at LSU, and Marist actually won a game (against a Cainisius team that just lost at Notre Dame in OT)... both Rhode Island and Marist were underdogs... both earlier had losses vs PC... how did those two wins by URI and Marist affect PC's rank? What was the net positive uptick for PC based on their opponents' unlikely results...?

At this point even- 1-2 unexpected results don't mean much.

your opponents record- right now would have about 225 games. So say your opponents records were 115-110. If the 2 wins don't happen- your opponents record is 113-112. That means instead of .511 you have .502. That's not a huge difference by any stretch of the imagination- considering it's only 1/2 of the RPI. Your opponents opponents record(25% of the record) remains the same, and your own record remains the same obviously(25%). It may make in the final RPI a .0045 difference in your RPI at this point. Just looking right now- it made a 5 spot difference.

End of the year though- those 2 wins- your opponents would have about 900 games. so 2 fluke wins if you will- changes from say 460-440 to 458-442. .5111 to .5089. Makes the final RPI difference .0011- or about 1 spot.

Holy Cow, I was about to comment about how I like billyjacks sense of humor but jeez stever. We seriously need to have a Sarcasm font available for this site because some people are not as good at recognizing it when they read it.

[stever20]

Trying to expand on Jet's point about predictions and results being fluid...
Take unanticipated results of the last couple of days that would move the needle... Rhody won at LSU, and Marist actually won a game (against a Cainisius team that just lost at Notre Dame in OT)... both Rhode Island and Marist were underdogs... both earlier had losses vs PC... how did those two wins by URI and Marist affect PC's rank? What was the net positive uptick for PC based on their opponents' unlikely results...?

At this point even- 1-2 unexpected results don't mean much.

your opponents record- right now would have about 225 games. So say your opponents records were 115-110. If the 2 wins don't happen- your opponents record is 113-112. That means instead of .511 you have .502. That's not a huge difference by any stretch of the imagination- considering it's only 1/2 of the RPI. Your opponents opponents record(25% of the record) remains the same, and your own record remains the same obviously(25%). It may make in the final RPI a .0045 difference in your RPI at this point. Just looking right now- it made a 5 spot difference.

End of the year though- those 2 wins- your opponents would have about 900 games. so 2 fluke wins if you will- changes from say 460-440 to 458-442. .5111 to .5089. Makes the final RPI difference .0011- or about 1 spot.

Holy Cow, I was about to comment about how I like billyjacks sense of humor but jeez stever. We seriously need to have a Sarcasm font available for this site because some people are not as good at recognizing it when they read it.

actually I think he was serious. And right now, it does make a decent difference in the current RPI. PC would be 5 slots lower right now w/o those 2 game results. End of the year, 1-2 fluky games doesn't mean anywhere near as much.

[billyjack]

Wow, yeah, I asked the question kinda rhetorically, like a food for thought thing about how these numbers aren't set in stone at all... I never thought I'd actually get an answer to it ever, so certainly not within 10 minutes, but so wow, gotta give props to steve...

Anyway, seeing that the numbers are now in front of us, and seeing that it actually moved PC's needle a surprisingly significant (seriously) 5 spots, it is a good sign for Butler and Marquette... 5 spots aren't a big deal between being ranked 145 or 150, but Butler, etc, will be jockeying for position in RPI, and every spot helps... no uptick is insignificant...

[stever20]

Wow, yeah, I asked the question kinda rhetorically, like a food for thought thing about how these numbers aren't set in stone at all... I never thought I'd actually get an answer to it ever, so certainly not within 10 minutes, but so wow, gotta give props to steve...

Anyway, seeing that the numbers are now in front of us, and seeing that it actually moved PC's needle a surprisingly significant (seriously) 5 spots, it is a good sign for Butler and Marquette... 5 spots aren't a big deal between being ranked 145 or 150, but Butler, etc, will be jockeying for position in RPI, and every spot helps... no uptick is insignificant...

The thing for Butler, etc. isn't really the other teams doing better- but rather winning actual games That's the biggest way to improve the RPI for Butler end of the day- and also to get enough wins to make the tourney.

[XUFan09]

Marist over Canisius wasn't a fluke, by the way. It was basically a coin flip by Kenpom's numbers, and Sagarin probably wouldn't disagree (Sagarin's numbers are the ones used for RPI Forecast). There are plenty of coin flip games like that though, so Marist wouldn't have been expected to win or lose them all.

Rhode Island over LSU, though, was a fluke, and you'll get those from time to time.

[Bill Marsh]

Trying to expand on Jet's point about predictions and results being fluid...
Take unanticipated results of the last couple of days that would move the needle... Rhody won at LSU, and Marist actually won a game (against a Cainisius team that just lost at Notre Dame in OT)... both Rhode Island and Marist were underdogs... both earlier had losses vs PC... how did those two wins by URI and Marist affect PC's rank? What was the net positive uptick for PC based on their opponents' unlikely results...?

At this point even- 1-2 unexpected results don't mean much.

your opponents record- right now would have about 225 games. So say your opponents records were 115-110. If the 2 wins don't happen- your opponents record is 113-112. That means instead of .511 you have .502. That's not a huge difference by any stretch of the imagination- considering it's only 1/2 of the RPI. Your opponents opponents record(25% of the record) remains the same, and your own record remains the same obviously(25%). It may make in the final RPI a .0045 difference in your RPI at this point. Just looking right now- it made a 5 spot difference.

End of the year though- those 2 wins- your opponents would have about 900 games. so 2 fluke wins if you will- changes from say 460-440 to 458-442. .5111 to .5089. Makes the final RPI difference .0011- or about 1 spot.

You've got the RPI part of it right, but the projection is based on Sagarin's predictive rating, which is a true power rating. That means that it uses margin of victory to make its changes and then predicts the outcomes of future games based on that before it calculates RPI.

The key factors are strength of the opponent and point spread, so you can't just look at won-record and treat it as though that's the only difference those unanticipated wins make.