Sun 1/5 Providence at Nova FS1

[billyjack]

If PC continues its slide this year, it means that a minimum of 5 NCAA bids is a strong possibilty. We were solid ooc, so if (when?) Butler, Xavier, Marquette and/or St John's sweep us, those games will be considered as nice wins. I'm thinking bids will go to Villanova, Creighton and Georgetown. K-State's big win over Okla State helps the Hoyas. San Diego State's nice win vs Kansas helps Marquette and Creighton.

[Lavinwood]

PC and SJU he the same curse:
They each hung onto coaches when it was clear they were incompetent. Really hurt them in the 2000's

And you ant bank on a good recruiting class as the answer. You need a good system, good upper classmen leadership, and a winning mentality. You need that good recruiting class to become upper classmen, and develop. It is rare for a good recruiting to just come in and turn it all around.

That's why I think seton hall is still going to stink next year.

The best example of a top 5 recruiting class at one of these schools turning it around is villanova in 2002. But they didn't make the tournament until those guys were juniors.

I used to think it was all about recruiting…recruit the best and they will carry you. They will win on raw talent. I've come to realize how wrong I was. Sometimes we forget these are just 18 yr old kids with acne coming in. These are not pros. They need development…even the best. Recruit rankings are more an indication of their ceiling than their actual current level. I used to think coaches were overrated and guys like Coach K just got lucky because all the best recruits came there automatically. Boy was I wrong. Look at Wisconsin. Look at Nova. Look at Cuse. Schools like this have great programs from top to bottom. They have great scouts, great coaches, great player development, and always seem to pick the perfect recruits to fit their system, not necessarily the highest ranked recruit. I look through Wisconsin's team and it's full of 3 star players. The same is true with Creighton. But they are still consistently ranked, they have a plan, and they play in an actual system. They buy in. SJ with Lavin is exactly what you get when you take the highest ranked recruits without concern for style of play or skill set and just throw them together and let them play street ball. So sad. If we lose vs. Nova I'm taking a long break from SJ basketball…someone can wake me up when we are ranked again…if I'm not long buried by then.

[Friarfan2]

Look at a school like michigan state.

It is not about a stellar recruiting class coming in and saving the day. That never really happens (unless it is a freakish class like kentucky had recently). It is more about having solid recruits and good upper classmen leadership who takes pressure off their immediate impact and helps give them room to develop.

This is why I think seton hall will struggle next year.

[Lavinwood]

Look at a school like michigan state.

It is not about a stellar recruiting class coming in and saving the day. That never really happens (unless it is a freakish class like kentucky had recently). It is more about having solid recruits and good upper classmen leadership who takes pressure off their immediate impact and helps give them room to develop.

This is why I think seton hall will struggle next year.

Agreed. Seton Hall isn't a well-run program and they already proved they would sacrifice quality coaching to bring in a high recruit like Whitehead. You just don't hire a coach of a recruit without him deserving it. I can't see them being anything great. Better than now? Yes. But not a scary team. I always have a great time looking through Rivals rankings of now established stars on these Wisconsin and Creighton teams. Some of them are TWO stars! Many are 3. McDermott was a 3 star prospect LOL. Could you believe that? DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy, the 2 players who led SJ to a #18 ranking and knocking off 4 top 10 teams in 2011 were both 3 star prospects. Hardy was a 1st team all Big East player back when the league had 9 bids and was at its peak.

I'm still dying for SJ to get some of these slow white kids from the cornfields who can shoot from anywhere on the court and make 45% of their shots. That's something we haven't had since Mullin (even though he's from NYC).

[Friarfan2]

Louisville's Russ Smith was a 2 star recruit, he was the best player in the ncaa tournament last year as a junior.

I don't think either darrun hilliard or james bell were top 100 recruits.

The heart of old uconn was developing 3 star guys into all conference players as upper classmen.

Marquette's great run hasn't exactly been built on top 50 recruits. They are more continuity and player development from 50-150 ranked guys.

That nova team in 2009 that went to the final four only had one top 100 recruit in scottie reynolds and a bunch of good role player upperclassmen who developed (like dant cunningham who is still in the nba).

Teams like providence, st john's, seton hall and depaul need to get the winning in their system, so that way the young guys can learn how to win from the upperclassmen. We are stuck in this downward rut and it takes a solid recruiting cycle and program building to get out of it.

[stever20]

If PC continues its slide this year, it means that a minimum of 5 NCAA bids is a strong possibilty. We were solid ooc, so if (when?) Butler, Xavier, Marquette and/or St John's sweep us, those games will be considered as nice wins. I'm thinking bids will go to Villanova, Creighton and Georgetown. K-State's big win over Okla State helps the Hoyas. San Diego State's nice win vs Kansas helps Marquette and Creighton.

If PC goes 4-14 RPI would be 132. That would not be considered as a nice win by any stretch. 10-3 against 197 OOC SOS is hardly good.

[HoosierPal]

If PC continues its slide this year, it means that a minimum of 5 NCAA bids is a strong possibilty. We were solid ooc, so if (when?) Butler, Xavier, Marquette and/or St John's sweep us, those games will be considered as nice wins. I'm thinking bids will go to Villanova, Creighton and Georgetown. K-State's big win over Okla State helps the Hoyas. San Diego State's nice win vs Kansas helps Marquette and Creighton.

If PC goes 4-14 RPI would be 132. That would not be considered as a nice win by any stretch. 10-3 against 197 OOC SOS is hardly good.

Providence had one top 100 win, against Vandy (82nd). That's not going to push the needle.

[Bluejay]

If PC continues its slide this year, it means that a minimum of 5 NCAA bids is a strong possibilty. We were solid ooc, so if (when?) Butler, Xavier, Marquette and/or St John's sweep us, those games will be considered as nice wins. I'm thinking bids will go to Villanova, Creighton and Georgetown. K-State's big win over Okla State helps the Hoyas. San Diego State's nice win vs Kansas helps Marquette and Creighton.

If PC goes 4-14 RPI would be 132. That would not be considered as a nice win by any stretch. 10-3 against 197 OOC SOS is hardly good.

I think more important than "good wins" is separation between the tiers. If we have five teams that separate from the rest, it will make those teams look even better. If we have one or two teams at the top and then a bunch of teams all with the same records, it make the league look much more mediocre.

[stever20]

If PC continues its slide this year, it means that a minimum of 5 NCAA bids is a strong possibilty. We were solid ooc, so if (when?) Butler, Xavier, Marquette and/or St John's sweep us, those games will be considered as nice wins. I'm thinking bids will go to Villanova, Creighton and Georgetown. K-State's big win over Okla State helps the Hoyas. San Diego State's nice win vs Kansas helps Marquette and Creighton.

If PC goes 4-14 RPI would be 132. That would not be considered as a nice win by any stretch. 10-3 against 197 OOC SOS is hardly good.

I think more important than "good wins" is separation between the tiers. If we have five teams that separate from the rest, it will make those teams look even better. If we have one or two teams at the top and then a bunch of teams all with the same records, it make the league look much more mediocre.

Looking at Ken Pom- he's got the seperation from 4 to 5. Makes sense. Just don't see Butler going 10-6 the rest of the way to reduce the seperation from 4 to 5. Especially if they lose to Georgetown this Saturday night.

[billyjack]

Yeah, it's a 2-part thing:
- PC wins vs solid programs La Salle, Vanderbilt and Boston College could all improve their play this year.
- PC wins vs secondary programs could improve... for example, URI just won at LSU on Saturday (something Ken Pom couldn't have predicted)... Brown and Yale should finish 2nd and 3rd in the Ivies... Vermont could very easily win the America East... Fairfield should be an upper half MAAC school... I realize that these aren't dynamic shifts, but as a whole they should add up for the better... only Maine and Marist are really poor teams right now... in other words, though our SOS might be weak, it's not weak based on crushing Incarnate Word, Stetson and The Citadel...
- PC may provide the Big East with a 3rd team with a poor record... til now, only 2 schools seemed to be lined up to struggle this year... a third team would improve the records of the top 7 schools...
- On behalf of PC, "you're welcome"...

Also:
10-3 vs a top-200 schedule by a conference's last place team is excellent for that conference.