the path to 5 conference bids

[XUFan09]

Butler has an expected non-conference SOS of 175 that they need to overcome and they haven't beat anyone. They don't need everything to break their way, but they definitely need more things to go their way than go against them. Their efficiency statistics rank them 52nd by Kenpom and 58th by Sagarin, which neither makes me feel good about their tournament resume nor about their chances of improving it.

They're a solid team, but solid teams generally don't make the tournament.

[BEX]

Butler has a habit of beating up on teams nobody thought they could beat. When they learn how to close, they will be very tough. it's coming. Some talent on that team. Nova really hasn't proved anything to me yet. CU is playing the best right now. I still think you can pull 5-6 teams out of a hat with 16 to go.

[stever20]

Butler has a habit of beating up on teams nobody thought they could beat. When they learn how to close, they will be very tough. it's coming. Some talent on that team. Nova really hasn't proved anything to me yet. CU is playing the best right now. I still think you can pull 5-6 teams out of a hat with 16 to go.

to get 5 teams even....
Creighton, Xavier, Georgetown, and Nova have to keep up with what they've done.
Butler would need to go 10-6 rest of the way
St John's would need to go 11-6 rest of the way(1 OOC game left)
Marquette would need to go at least 10-6 rest of the way, if not more likely 11-5.
and that's just to get them to 20 wins. They would then likely need to win 1st rd in the BET to feel really safe..

[XUFan09]

The reason I did the tournament capsules on my blog is it's a good reference tool, even for me. I'm looking at it right now, and there is clear separation between Xavier at #4 (just behind Georgetown IMO) and Butler at #5. If Georgetown and Xavier just keep up with the trends they're on, they are tournament teams. Not so much for Butler; they need to exceed expectations. Then, there's another decent gap between Butler on one side and St. John's and Marquette on the other side. It's going to be tough for Butler, and it seems really tough on the latter side of that divide.

Marquette is an interesting case. In terms of the quality of the team (and likely conference finish), I'd put them on the same tier as Butler, but they've just lost so many games already. They haven't lost to a single team outside Kenpom or Projected RPI's top 55, but a 1-6 record against that group is no way to get a tournament bid. They have 7 more games against teams projected in the RPI top 50, four at home and three on the road. I suppose if they went 5-2 against this group while avoiding bad losses, they'd be in decent shape. Of course, they'd also have to generally avoid losses against 51-100 teams (Butler, St. John's, and Providence) because their record against that group is only 1-1. Their efficiency statistics, now decent, would end up looking pretty good too if they managed to pull this off. I just think that's unlikely, because we're talking something like 14-4 or 13-5 for their conference record. Maybe 12-6 could do it.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Butler has a habit of beating up on teams nobody thought they could beat. When they learn how to close, they will be very tough. it's coming. Some talent on that team. Nova really hasn't proved anything to me yet. CU is playing the best right now. I still think you can pull 5-6 teams out of a hat with 16 to go.

Now that's funny. You mean the team that beat USC, Kansas & Iowa at the same tourney that XU couldn't beat anyone? You mean the one BE team that has beaten one of the better conference teams on the road? You mean the team that beat St Joe's by 30 while Creighton struggled to win by a miracle shot by GM vs the same team? You mean the only BE team in the top 10 RPI, BPI, Kenpom, Etc.? The only ranked BE team? The team that has been beating their opponents by an average of 15+.

You're right Nova hasn't proven a thing yet. I'm glad you backed up that statement with actual facts. If Nova "hasn't proved anything" to you, please enlighten me on exactly what CU has done to impress you more. Was it the loss to GW (a marginal A10 team), or the long list of great OOC wins with Ariz State at home being the best of the bunch? I like CU, and think they are good, but really? Ridiculous statement.

[BEX]

C'mon, they got hammered by Cuse and were happy to get out of Indy with a win. Anyway, we'll see. They played 1 friggin' game.

[stever20]

C'mon, they got hammered by Cuse and were happy to get out of Indy with a win. Anyway, we'll see. They played 1 friggin' game.

What does Creighton have though? Nova has 2 top 25 wins right now. Creighton has wins over 9-4 St Joe's(as Nova does), 11-3 Arizona St, 8-6 Nebraska, 10-4 Cal, 9-6 Marquette, and 10-5 Seton Hall- as their only wins vs teams over .500.
Nova has wins over 9-6 Towson, 8-7 Delaware, 9-4 USC, 9-3 Kansas, 12-2 Iowa, 9-4 St Joes(as Creighton does), 7-6 La Salle, 7-6 Rider, and 10-4 Butler. That's a 9-6 margin right now(and likely 10-6 after tomorrow). Creighton has 6 sub .500 wins vs 3 for Nova. Creighton- SOS right now 70. Nova 12. Plus Nova has 1 fewer loss!

[XU85]

Butler has a habit of beating up on teams nobody thought they could beat. When they learn how to close, they will be very tough. it's coming. Some talent on that team. Nova really hasn't proved anything to me yet. CU is playing the best right now. I still think you can pull 5-6 teams out of a hat with 16 to go.

Smh...

[paulxu]

I think this site updates all the time, and runs simulations all the time.
We need to get started to get to 5 if this is the case:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... onference/

[Friarfan2]

I do think creighton could finish ahead of nova in the regular season. Lots of basketball left to be played.

But come on, nova hasn't shown you anything yet? Because they got hammered at cuse? Dude, cuse is real good, and the game was at their place. Creighton has two losses that are much worse (not that sd state is bad, but they aren't cuse, and gw is not in cuse's area code). And in terms of common opponents, see the st joe's game.

And you start off by saying how butler is good, but then knock nova for barely beating them at home?

I'm not saying that nova is the greatest ever, but they have clearly distinguished themselves from the rest of the league at this point. And creighton has distinguished themselves from the other 8, and gtown and xavier have distinguished themselves from the other 6.