RPI Forecast

[Friarfan2]

That would be a 4 bid league. Teams with +60 rpis do not usually get at large bids. It can happen, but it is not the norm.

What we would need is for butler to get more like 45-55 range, at the expense of the teams below them.

[XUFan09]

The "RPI Forecast by Final Record" section that stever20 is referencing is pretty awesome.

[n00b]

It's a decent guess because it shows what the RPI's would be if there are no upsets. Obviously you can't take into account those. If the predictions are 100% right, it shows what the RPI's would look like. You also can look at that and get a general idea of what RPI each team would have if they finish with specific records.

That's not quite how it works. The system takes upsets into account. Here's how his system works:

1) Assigns odds to every game remaining based on Sagarin ratings (for example Villanova has an 87% chance of beating Providence on Sunday)
2) Randomly picks winners for every game for the remainder of the season based on those odds
3) Calculates the RPI based on those picks
4) Repeats steps 2 & 3 10,000 times

So upsets certainly are taken into account.

[n00b]

The "RPI Forecast by Final Record" section that stever20 is referencing is pretty awesome.

Agreed. Best part of the site. For reference, here is the conference record needed by each team to get into the RPI top 45 (according to their RPIForecast).

Villanova ---- (8-10, assuming an OOC win at Temple)
Creighton ---- (11-7)
Butler -------- (11-7)
Xavier -------- (11-7)
St. John's ---- (11-7, assuming an OOC win vs Dartmouth)
Georgetown - (11-7, assuming an OOC loss vs Michigan St)
Seton Hall --- (12-6)
Providence --- (12-6)
Marquette --- (13-5)
DePaul - (none of the 10,000 simulations had DePaul with a top 45 RPI)

Obviously RPI isn't the be-all and end-all of the selection process, but this gives a loose approximation. 11 seems to be the magic number for teams not named Villanova. The best case in term of maximizing the number of BE bids is for Nova to have a disappointing conference season. It would eliminate our best chance at a top seed, but they'd really need to tank to miss the tournament completely.

It's worth noting this doesn't take conference tournaments into account.

[ivet]

The posters on this site are all ate up about RPI for some reason. We do not need an hourly announcement of the latest RPI and/or Future RPI. Let's run all the what if's to see what our RPI's will be at. What if Doug gets lost in cornfields and gets abducted by Aliens...what will Creighton's RPI be then? What if VCU announces they are going to be a Catholic school, what will their RPI be? Christ it's January, just enjoy watching great Big East games and not worry about which teams will get in the tourney due to their RPI.

[n00b]

Christ it's January, just enjoy watching great Big East games and not worry about which teams will get in the tourney due to their RPI.

There are 3 whole days between the last Big East game Tuesday night and the first one coming up on Saturday! What are we supposed to do for all THAT time?!?

[ivet]

Watch other basketball games and Bowl games. I just watched a great game between the Sooners and Roll Tide. You see Alabama had an RPI of 3 and Oklahoma had an RPI of 54 and can you believe it? The one with the worst RPI beat the one with the better RPI. Unbelievable. Someone should tell Oklahoma that's not how RPI's work. The RPI rankings are there for a reason, to keep everyone in their place.

[XUFan09]

Watch other basketball games and Bowl games. I just watched a great game between the Sooners and Roll Tide. You see Alabama had an RPI of 3 and Oklahoma had an RPI of 54 and can you believe it? The one with the worst RPI beat the one with the better RPI. Unbelievable. Someone should tell Oklahoma that's not how RPI's work. The RPI rankings are there for a reason, to keep everyone in their place.

Considering that RPI (combined with Sagarin Ratings) submits probabilities, that's exactly how it works

[ivet]

Watch other basketball games and Bowl games. I just watched a great game between the Sooners and Roll Tide. You see Alabama had an RPI of 3 and Oklahoma had an RPI of 54 and can you believe it? The one with the worst RPI beat the one with the better RPI. Unbelievable. Someone should tell Oklahoma that's not how RPI's work. The RPI rankings are there for a reason, to keep everyone in their place.

Considering that RPI (combined with Sagarin Ratings) submits probabilities, that's exactly how it works

I wish there was a sarcasm font because I'd be using it a lot. Unless that was sarcasm which would justify why I would want a sarcasm font even more.

[XUFan09]

Watch other basketball games and Bowl games. I just watched a great game between the Sooners and Roll Tide. You see Alabama had an RPI of 3 and Oklahoma had an RPI of 54 and can you believe it? The one with the worst RPI beat the one with the better RPI. Unbelievable. Someone should tell Oklahoma that's not how RPI's work. The RPI rankings are there for a reason, to keep everyone in their place.

Considering that RPI (combined with Sagarin Ratings) submits probabilities, that's exactly how it works

I wish there was a sarcasm font because I'd be using it a lot. Unless that was sarcasm which would justify why I would want a sarcasm font even more.

Lol I was aware that it was sarcasm.