billyjack wrote:stever20 wrote:11 conference wins plus the 9 OOC wins and they are at 20 wins- rpi about 45.. That's a pretty magic number for a committee. Always has been for the major conferences. Committee has shown last few years they'd take a 21-10 team over a 18-14 team with a tougher schedule.
SMU's projected RPI right now is 58. If they got 1 more win than projected, they're a top 50 RPI team. Numbers I did earlier this week were all pretty much predicated on # to get to 20.
Brother Stever,
Virginia, LAST YEAR, had 21 regular season wins and an 11-7 record in the ACC, and didn't make the NCAAs.
This year, they already have 3 losses, including to UW-Green Bay.
The ACC is in a tough spot because teams like Boston College (with PC loss), Georgia Tech (with St John's loss) and Virginia Tech (with Seton Hall loss) aren't good, their RPI is awful, but they ARE good enough to beat bubble teams like Florida State and Maryland and definitely Virginia.
Actually, Virginia has had ONE true road game, their loss at Green Bay.
HoosierPal wrote:I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.
HoosierPal wrote:I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.
notkirkcameron wrote:HoosierPal wrote:I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.
So yea, the Big East doesn't have a lot of world-beaters this season like the Big 10, but it really doesn't have any pushovers either.
Jet915 wrote:As far as teams getting ranked, the best way would be for Butler to beat Villanova, that should get them pretty close to ranked I would think and for Providence to win at UMASS. In order to Creighton to get in, they'll have to atleast beat Marquette and hope teams ahead of them lose.
HoosierPal wrote:I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.
notkirkcameron wrote:HoosierPal wrote:I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.
The trouble with this mode of analysis is that it generally favors top-heavy leagues. Put another way, if you look at the Top 25, you'd have no clue what the bottom of the league looks like. Ohio State plays in the Big Ten but so does Northwestern. Duke plays in the ACC but so does Virginia Tech, etc. The American is a classic example of this. The AAC has 5 teams in the Top 60 of KenPom's rankings, and 3 in the Top 25. Sounds great, right? Only one problem: The AAC has 10 teams. So while the AAC may have 3 teams in the Top 25, it's not crazy to think those might be the only 3 teams out of the ACC dancing (Louisville, UConn, Memphis).
Conference Teams in KenPom Top 60
ACC: 8
Big 10: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 7
Big 12: 6
AAC: 5
I picked the top 60 because while an imperfect theory (exceptions for one-bid leagues and conference tournament upsets) the overwhelming majority of the 68 teams who make up the NCAA Tournament will be in the top 68 teams in the country (53 of the Top 68 eligible KenPom teams made it last year). Teams in the Top 60 at the very least should expect to be part of the conversation for tournament berths. In this regard, the Big East is certainly in no worse shape than other conferences , and here's the corollary of this analysis. How many bottom-feeders are there in your league?
Big East: 3 of 10 teams out of the Ken Pom top 60 (30%)
Big 10: 4 of 12 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (33%)
Big 12: 4 of 10 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (40%)
Pac-12: 5 of 12 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (42%)
ACC: 7 of 15 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (47%)
AAC: 5 of 10 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (50%)
SEC: 7 of 14 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (50%)
So yea, the Big East doesn't have a lot of world-beaters this season like the Big 10, but it really doesn't have any pushovers either.
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