Dunn Done

[FriarJ]

I don't know that I had them as a tourney team this year- pretty much I thought everything would have to go right for them. OOC schedule not all that strong meant they needed to go like 21-10 or something like that to have a shot. Thought they were a year away realisitcally.

Oh, it's not like I had them penciled in for a 4 or 5 seed or something, more like 7-11 seed. With Dunn and the freshman I had them in the 20-11 to 23-8 range(10-3 or 11-2 ooc). Maybe that's just my BE bias though, but I expected a step up from the Friars this year. Who knows though, they could still beat UMass and go 11-2 ooc, then if they could manage 10-8 in conf.??? Will be extremely difficult without those 3 though.

well last year they were 17-13 regular season, then lost 1st rd of BET. 17-14. This year even if they miss the tourney, but go like 19-12 and 1st rd loss- 19-13- that would still be a step up to me. Just frustrating since it could have been so much more.

You have no idea.

[TheHall]

well last year they were 17-13 regular season, then lost 1st rd of BET. 17-14. This year even if they miss the tourney, but go like 19-12 and 1st rd loss- 19-13- that would still be a step up to me. Just frustrating since it could have been so much more.

It's a reality of sports. That's why trying to interpret an entire season for a prog by just the first few weeks is fool's gold. No way KenPom can account for suspensions, injuries or even surprise player improvement for that matter (Fortune hopefully). I like extrapolating as much as the next sports fan but treating projections as certainties usually falls apart as the season plays out. Btw it won't only be PC and it won't only be in the BE, remember Robbie Hummel- 2yrs in a row for a team that was a F4 contender with him.

[jks1985]

Now it's more important than ever for PC to get their suspended freshmen back on the team, otherwise, it will be be a long season.

[stever20]

well last year they were 17-13 regular season, then lost 1st rd of BET. 17-14. This year even if they miss the tourney, but go like 19-12 and 1st rd loss- 19-13- that would still be a step up to me. Just frustrating since it could have been so much more.

It's a reality of sports. That's why trying to interpret an entire season for a prog by just the first few weeks is fool's gold. No way KenPom can account for suspensions, injuries or even surprise player improvement for that matter (Fortune hopefully). I like extrapolating as much as the next sports fan but treating projections as certainties usually falls apart as the season plays out. Btw it won't only be PC and it won't only be in the BE, remember Robbie Hummel- 2yrs in a row for a team that was a F4 contender with him.

While I agree with you to some degree, we are a third of the way done with the season. Also, 2/3(may be closer to 70% now)- done with the OOC season. That's a lot of data that is now known. By Sunday, everyone will have played at least 9 OOC games, except for Georgetown(who only has 12 OOC games). 3 teams will have only 2 OOC games left by Sunday night(29 as a whole left for the conference). Also, after this weekend, 3/10 teams will have played their last tough OOC game. It's not like we don't have a good bit of data now. Also, with the tough games ending, we'll know what we'll be going into conference play with as far as # of losses. If we have 5 or 6 with 4+ losses, we know those 5-6 won't have any chance realisitically to make the tourney if they are 9-9 in conference play or worse.

[Lavinwood]

Just awful luck with PC. I feel terrible. You guys get 2 McD AA's out of nowhere and instead of leading you to the Sweet 16 as was possible, Ledo enters the draft without playing a game and Dunn keeps getting hurt badly. Not sure if this makes sense, but PC's luck with player injuries is like our luck with winning big games. With you guys it seems every time you get big players something always happens i.e. injury, incident, leave. With us it seems every time we have a huge game vs. a top 10 team we almost never win. So I understand the negativity that might be rampant in Prov. It's tough, but you guys are due a season with zero injuries. As long as Cooley keeps top 100 talent there, you guys will be fine. I think PC still has a shot at the NIT and maybe win a few games in it.

[TheHall]

well last year they were 17-13 regular season, then lost 1st rd of BET. 17-14. This year even if they miss the tourney, but go like 19-12 and 1st rd loss- 19-13- that would still be a step up to me. Just frustrating since it could have been so much more.

It's a reality of sports. That's why trying to interpret an entire season for a prog by just the first few weeks is fool's gold. No way KenPom can account for suspensions, injuries or even surprise player improvement for that matter (Fortune hopefully). I like extrapolating as much as the next sports fan but treating projections as certainties usually falls apart as the season plays out. Btw it won't only be PC and it won't only be in the BE, remember Robbie Hummel- 2yrs in a row for a team that was a F4 contender with him.

While I agree with you to some degree, we are a third of the way done with the season. Also, 2/3(may be closer to 70% now)- done with the OOC season. That's a lot of data that is now known. By Sunday, everyone will have played at least 9 OOC games, except for Georgetown(who only has 12 OOC games). 3 teams will have only 2 OOC games left by Sunday night(29 as a whole left for the conference). Also, after this weekend, 3/10 teams will have played their last tough OOC game. It's not like we don't have a good bit of data now. Also, with the tough games ending, we'll know what we'll be going into conference play with as far as # of losses. If we have 5 or 6 with 4+ losses, we know those 5-6 won't have any chance realisitically to make the tourney if they are 9-9 in conference play or worse.

That logic only applies if you look at the BE as a whole, which is cool. But trying to determine the chances for any particular school by that method is fatally flawed. What we still don't know is how hard will it be for a team to go 11-7 or 10-8, etc in this inaugural BE season. We have no clue even with these OOC games, a true round robin is totally different.

[stever20]

[But it would apply for the individual schools. I mean, right now Marquette. They have 4 losses. They beat NM(not a lock)- go 9-9 in conference. They are 18-13 entering the BET. Just not enough. It's very easy to say that. We'll know generally for all 10 teams what they will need to do in conference play to have a chance to make the tourney. Generally bare minimum it's 20-OOC wins. For some, it may be more like 21 or 22-OOC wins.

[TheHall]

[But it would apply for the individual schools. I mean, right now Marquette. They have 4 losses. They beat NM(not a lock)- go 9-9 in conference. They are 18-13 entering the BET. Just not enough. It's very easy to say that. We'll know generally for all 10 teams what they will need to do in conference play to have a chance to make the tourney. Generally bare minimum it's 20-OOC wins. For some, it may be more like 21 or 22-OOC wins.

The question I keep asking is why would you assume any specific BE team would only go 9-9 in-conference after seeing all the teams play. When posters were making those predictions no games had been played yet. I'm a SHU fan and I've seen no reason to believe when Fuquan gets back, if he and Teague can play off one another and Gibbs/Sina keep improving, Oliver keeps shooting the 3, etc... we can do better than 9-9. Why wouldn't I, there are no established world beaters in the conference, yet. Your analytic drive is impressive but it's built on a set of assumptions, the biggest seems to be to limit BE team's in-conference potential.

While everyone is praising what Nova's done, a couple years ago Uconn did even better in the OOC by beating MSU & UK, yet they were average in conference (a much better BE, but just as even) and basically needed to win the BET to get a bid. So I wouldn't even assume Nova will win the conference or any other team for that matter yet.

[stever20]

[But it would apply for the individual schools. I mean, right now Marquette. They have 4 losses. They beat NM(not a lock)- go 9-9 in conference. They are 18-13 entering the BET. Just not enough. It's very easy to say that. We'll know generally for all 10 teams what they will need to do in conference play to have a chance to make the tourney. Generally bare minimum it's 20-OOC wins. For some, it may be more like 21 or 22-OOC wins.

The question I keep asking is why would you assume any specific BE team would only go 9-9 in-conference after seeing all the teams play. When posters were making those predictions no games had been played yet. I'm a SHU fan and I've seen no reason to believe when Fuquan gets back, if he and Teague can play off one another and Gibbs/Sina keep improving, Oliver keeps shooting the 3, etc... we can do better than 9-9. Why wouldn't I, there are no established world beaters in the conference, yet. Your analytic drive is impressive but it's built on a set of assumptions, the biggest seems to be to limit BE team's in-conference potential.

While everyone is praising what Nova's done, a couple years ago Uconn did even better in the OOC by beating MSU & UK, yet they were average in conference (a much better BE, but just as even) and basically needed to win the BET to get a bid. So I wouldn't even assume Nova will win the conference or any other team for that matter yet.

The thing is, we'll know going into conference play what every team needs. I'd say for Seton Hall, you need to go 22-9 to get in looking at the various RPI for different records.. Considering you are 7-3 right now, that would mean you would need to win the rest of the OOC, and then go 12-6 in conference play. You lost to FDU.

Also, UConn a couple years ago was a #3 seed. That's totally revisionist history to say they needed to win the tourney to make the NCAA. They were 21-9 in the Old Big East.

[TheHall]

[But it would apply for the individual schools. I mean, right now Marquette. They have 4 losses. They beat NM(not a lock)- go 9-9 in conference. They are 18-13 entering the BET. Just not enough. It's very easy to say that. We'll know generally for all 10 teams what they will need to do in conference play to have a chance to make the tourney. Generally bare minimum it's 20-OOC wins. For some, it may be more like 21 or 22-OOC wins.

The question I keep asking is why would you assume any specific BE team would only go 9-9 in-conference after seeing all the teams play. When posters were making those predictions no games had been played yet. I'm a SHU fan and I've seen no reason to believe when Fuquan gets back, if he and Teague can play off one another and Gibbs/Sina keep improving, Oliver keeps shooting the 3, etc... we can do better than 9-9. Why wouldn't I, there are no established world beaters in the conference, yet. Your analytic drive is impressive but it's built on a set of assumptions, the biggest seems to be to limit BE team's in-conference potential.

While everyone is praising what Nova's done, a couple years ago Uconn did even better in the OOC by beating MSU & UK, yet they were average in conference (a much better BE, but just as even) and basically needed to win the BET to get a bid. So I wouldn't even assume Nova will win the conference or any other team for that matter yet.

The thing is, we'll know going into conference play what every team needs. I'd say for Seton Hall, you need to go 22-9 to get in looking at the various RPI for different records.. Considering you are 7-3 right now, that would mean you would need to win the rest of the OOC, and then go 12-6 in conference play. You lost to FDU.

Also, UConn a couple years ago was a #3 seed. That's totally revisionist history to say they needed to win the tourney to make the NCAA. They were 21-9 in the Old Big East.

And UNC lost to Belmont, does that limit the potential for their squad? Have you watched must basketball in your life. Uconn most definitely was a #3 seed but that was because who they beat during the BET. That run was one of the most difficult in BET & NCAAT history! Let me put it this way, I KNOW you haven't watched must BE ball over the years. When have you ever heard of a BE team playing on day 1 in the old format being a lock for the NCAAT, never. Go do your homework dude.