looking at the league a third of the way in

[stever20]

these are Ken Poms ratings from start of season to today
Vil 26 to 5 +21
Cre 13 to 18 -5
Geo 14 to 24 -10
Mar 24 to 45 -21
SJ 47 to 56 -9
But 50 to 57 -7
Pro 41 to 61 -20
Xav 57 to 65 -8
SH 64 to 126 -62
Dep 85 to 147 -62

Only Nova has improved. All but 2 with at least a 7 spot drop and 4 with at least a 20 spot drop.

If this were any other year outside the first year, there would be a lot of concern. I think there's a lot of excitement from the newness of the league that is covering up that concern.

If you don't mind doing the legwork Stever, pick two other conferences (let's say the AAC and the ACC) and tell us how each has done vs start of the year. In the ACC I would think only Syr and Pitt have improved (and Pitt has played NO ONE). In the AAC I'm thinking UCONN, maybe Cinn. But each will have some big drops as well.

Just did the AAC:
Lou 1 to 1 0
Mem 19 to 14 +5
Con 11 to 22 -11
Cin 45 to 31 +14
SMU 76 to 53 +23
Tem 87 to 99 -12
USF 110 to 120 -10
UCF 115 to 155 -40
RUt 107 to 198 -91
Hou 190 to 206 -16

if you add up all the deltas, it's -138. We are -189. SMU +23 cancels out Nova's +21 and then a bit. The next 3 though- Cincy, Memphis, and Louisville are +19 compared to our next 3- Creighton, Butler, Xavier- who are -20.

[stever20]

ACC
VT 160 to 95 +65
Pit 20 to 4 +16
NC 10 to 6 +4
Syr 9 to 7 +2
Duk 6 to 19 -13
VA 19 to 26 -7
Clem 96 to 37 +59
FSU 105 to 44 +61
Md 44 to 49 -5
ND 32 to 50 -18
NC St 72 to 72 0
WF 91 to 79 +12
GT 58 to 87 -29
BC 37 to 113 -76
Mia 62 to 119 -57
total of +14 VT, Clemson, FSU all way better than projected. Only BC and Miami worse.

That's the thing for us- only 1 team has gone, compared to these 2 conferences where 4 in the AAC have gone up along with a 5th maintaining, and the ACC- where 7 have gone up and 1 maintained.

[Dew]

I think it's great that people on the board do the research to prove points.. I really do. But I just can't put any stock in preseason "expectations" from a website before a game is played let alone compare teams and leagues in comparison to an arbitrary baseline. Let the games happen and then discuss.

[stever20]

I think it's great that people on the board do the research to prove points.. I really do. But I just can't put any stock in preseason "expectations" from a website before a game is played let alone compare teams and leagues in comparison to an arbitrary baseline. Let the games happen and then discuss.

I think it's a pretty fair comparison now quite frankly. The OOC season is 2/3 over right now. The season is 1/3 over. Preseason expectations do matter. If 9 of our 10 teams are lower than expected, what do you expect the experts to say(and they've started saying it).

I'd say anyways- I don't think any of us expected 1/3 in to have only 3 top 40 teams at this point in any metric.

Also if not using Ken Pom- using the polls. start of season- Marquette ranked, Creighton Georgetown, Nova getting votes. Now- Nova ranked, Creighton getting votes.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Thanks for the research Stever... appreciate the perspective.

[stever20]

Thanks for the research Stever... appreciate the perspective.

No problem. Just looking at the numbers from the 3 conferences- I'd say we haven't out right killed ourselves- but we haven't helped ourselves by any stretch at all either.

I look at the AAC- Cincy they went from 45 to 31. While our bubble teams have gone the other way near them.

[hoyahooligan]

I disagree with you about Creighton. They have 1 good win all year long- and 2 dreadful games- where McDermott in one had 7 points. Let's wait and see just how good they are until they play Marquette. That'll be a telling game maybe for both sides!

A six point loss to a top 25 team in what was essentially a home game for that team, is a "deadful game"? If that's the case, every team in the conference, sans "Nova, has had a "dreadful game", as has almost every team in the entire country. I'll grant you the GW game, but you're getting a little crazy with the hyperbole when discussing the San Diego State game.

I don't think San Diego St is actually a top 25 team. They're top 25 because they beat you and Marquette, but if none of them are really a top 25 team then....

[stever20]

I disagree with you about Creighton. They have 1 good win all year long- and 2 dreadful games- where McDermott in one had 7 points. Let's wait and see just how good they are until they play Marquette. That'll be a telling game maybe for both sides!

A six point loss to a top 25 team in what was essentially a home game for that team, is a "deadful game"? If that's the case, every team in the conference, sans "Nova, has had a "dreadful game", as has almost every team in the entire country. I'll grant you the GW game, but you're getting a little crazy with the hyperbole when discussing the San Diego State game.

I don't think San Diego St is actually a top 25 team. They're top 25 because they beat you and Marquette, but if none of them are really a top 25 team then....

I don't know about that. Fisher is a really good coach. We'll find out a lot about them in a few weeks when they play at Kansas.

[adoraz11]

Sju fans wrong???

We're 6 and 2 with one loss vs #68 Penn on a neutral court. The other vs Wisconsin on a neutral court who is a top 10 team by all metrics. Not to mention the last couple games have played really well, and our rpi is 45.

If we beat cuse this weekend we will likely be ranked. Not an incredible start to the season, but right now we're a bubble team.

[stever20]

Sju fans wrong???

We're 6 and 2 with one loss vs #68 Penn on a neutral court. The other vs Wisconsin on a neutral court who is a top 10 team by all metrics. Not to mention the last couple games have played really well, and our rpi is 45.

If we beat cuse this weekend we will likely be ranked. Not an incredible start to the season, but right now we're a bubble team.

Penn St loss one that could really come back to hurt later. Especially if they lose to Cuse.