looking at the league a third of the way in

[Friarfan2]

Unfortunately, not the best out of conference performance by the league. Not disaster, but the league is looking like 3 bid league with a chance at 4, and not much of a chance at 5 bids. I though we would be much closer to 5 than 3 bids, but there had been some disappointments. (Atlantic 10 is probably going to be 3 or 4 bids, with vcu, umass, dayton and george washington all looking solid).

Some thoughts:
The marquette fans who were mad at anyone who thought they lost a lot of key players and might struggle were wrong. Marquette was overrated to start the season, I told you all that, I got blasted for questioning marquette. I was right. They are not going dancing this year.
The villanova fans who thought they had a lot returning and could be good were right. Thank god for these guys stepping up.

The creighton fans who thought their team would compete for the top spot were right. This is a good team, despite the disappointing losses.
The georgetown fans who thought they would be the class of the league were wrong. However, they are looking like the #3 team behind nova and creighton, so they aren't as wrong as the marquette fans.

The st johns fans who thought this might be the year were wrong.
The providence fans who thought this might be the year still have hope.

The butler fans who thought they would be respectable were right.
The xavier fans who thought they would be respectable were wrong. Along with marquette, they are the most disappointing team.

The seton hall fans who did not believe they would be the worst team in the conference were wrong.
The depaul fans who thought they would exit the basement this year appear to be right.

All In all, a little disappointed. Really thought we would be a 4 bid, possibly 5 bid league. Georgetown should have been better. Marquette was way overrated (look at how much they lost fromlast year), and the johnnies and seton hall have disappointed. Could be better, but at least nova and creighton look good, and georgetown will probably make It and we can probably get another team in (probably providence, but xavier and st john's are still alive)

[stever20]

Marquette would have to go 11-7 or better to go dancing I think. The losses finally adding up for them from the offseason...

Nova has looked great.

I disagree with you about Creighton. They have 1 good win all year long- and 2 dreadful games- where McDermott in one had 7 points. Let's wait and see just how good they are until they play Marquette. That'll be a telling game maybe for both sides!

We really don't know much about PC so far. They've done what they absolutely needed to do and avoid the bad losses. But- 2 biggest chances no dice. Health and common sense are needed for their team! Unless they're going to go 11-7 or 12-6 in conference- that UMass game is a must win for them.

[stever20]

these are Ken Poms ratings from start of season to today
Vil 26 to 5 +19
Cre 13 to 18 -5
Geo 14 to 24 -10
Mar 24 to 45 -21
SJ 47 to 56 -9
But 50 to 57 -7
Pro 41 to 61 -20
Xav 57 to 65 -8
SH 64 to 126 -62
Dep 85 to 147 -62

Only Nova has improved. All but 2 with at least a 7 spot drop and 4 with at least a 20 spot drop.

If this were any other year outside the first year, there would be a lot of concern. I think there's a lot of excitement from the newness of the league that is covering up that concern.

[Dew]

I have no concerns especially if we are using computer numbers as our baseline and current determining factors. Let the season play out and we can have this discussion in March.

[Bluejay]

I disagree with you about Creighton. They have 1 good win all year long- and 2 dreadful games- where McDermott in one had 7 points. Let's wait and see just how good they are until they play Marquette. That'll be a telling game maybe for both sides!

A six point loss to a top 25 team in what was essentially a home game for that team, is a "deadful game"? If that's the case, every team in the conference, sans "Nova, has had a "dreadful game", as has almost every team in the entire country. I'll grant you the GW game, but you're getting a little crazy with the hyperbole when discussing the San Diego State game.

[GumbyDamnit!]

FF2, I understand the thought behind the post but when it is titled: "A 1/3 of the year in" and you are already making summary statements, I'm not sure the two pieces fit.

First of all, the # of bids of this league has so much to do with how we compete against each other and how all of the OOC teams that we have played collectively do in their own conferences. I think if you finish in the Top 3 in this league you are going to end up getting a bid automatically. The BE will end up in the Top 4 RPI as a conference and that is good enough for 3 auto bids IMO. What if Nova finishes 4th? Their OOC prob helps them get in as a 4th or maybe even as a 5th place team. I guess my point is that we won't have to really worry about bids until mid-Feb, so why try to figure it out now before 1 conf game has been played? And I'm also not sure you can say Marq is not a tourney team, and GW is when Marq beat them by double digits on a neutral floor. They both have some work to do IMO. Also who's the class of the league and who the bottom dwellers are will be decided in January and February, not based on an OOC schedule. Let it play out. I like my squad but their preseason gets them zero wins in conference to start.

I also think you are being a bit harsh on some teams. Nova has def helped itself but I don't think a lot of teams have really hurt themselves enough to be in jeopardy yet (except for maybe SHU with that FDU loss). SHU and DePaul are still alive, and can get bids if they finish at or near the top of the league. Also with a 10 team league a last place team only has to win 4 BET tourney games this year (instead of 5) which is not impossible. A 6th place team would only have to win 3--also doable. Do you think it is beyond reason to think that SJU can finish 6th and not win 3 games on its home court?

[stever20]

I have no concerns especially if we are using computer numbers as our baseline and current determining factors. Let the season play out and we can have this discussion in March.

The problem we have is no team outside of Nova has performed even really up to expectations. Everyone else has at least 2 losses and 4 have at least 3 losses- and this is with a not so great OOC schedule quite frankly!

[GumbyDamnit!]

these are Ken Poms ratings from start of season to today
Vil 26 to 5 +19
Cre 13 to 18 -5
Geo 14 to 24 -10
Mar 24 to 45 -21
SJ 47 to 56 -9
But 50 to 57 -7
Pro 41 to 61 -20
Xav 57 to 65 -8
SH 64 to 126 -62
Dep 85 to 147 -62

Only Nova has improved. All but 2 with at least a 7 spot drop and 4 with at least a 20 spot drop.

If this were any other year outside the first year, there would be a lot of concern. I think there's a lot of excitement from the newness of the league that is covering up that concern.

If you don't mind doing the legwork Stever, pick two other conferences (let's say the AAC and the ACC) and tell us how each has done vs start of the year. In the ACC I would think only Syr and Pitt have improved (and Pitt has played NO ONE). In the AAC I'm thinking UCONN, maybe Cinn. But each will have some big drops as well.

[stever20]

I disagree with you about Creighton. They have 1 good win all year long- and 2 dreadful games- where McDermott in one had 7 points. Let's wait and see just how good they are until they play Marquette. That'll be a telling game maybe for both sides!

A six point loss to a top 25 team in what was essentially a home game for that team, is a "deadful game"? If that's the case, every team in the conference, sans "Nova, has had a "dreadful game", as has almost every team in the entire country. I'll grant you the GW game, but you're getting a little crazy with the hyperbole when discussing the San Diego State game.

I'll give you that- though that game was a weird one- SD State could have been up by 20(but I guess you could say the same with Creighton at times too I think early!). The GW game is a concern(especially with how Unnerved McDermott got- he did as well the night before). I'm really looking forward to that Marquette/Creighton game- that will be a very telling game!)

[Chalmers0]

The xavier fans who thought they would be respectable were wrong. Along with marquette, they are the most disappointing team.

Luckily Xavier still has 3 games left (Cincinnati, Wake Forest and Alabama) to prove that they can be respectable. Obviously the 0-3 in Atlantis was embarrassing but they were also a Semaj cramp away from coming away probably 2-1 with a win over Top 25 team (still would be close to Top 25 at minimum) Iowa. I'm not saying I disagree with your overall statement, just think that luckily there is still a chance that if we sweep those 3 we are fine. While many people may see that as being impossible, I don't. Although, I will say Bama on the road following Crosstown will be tough.